Did the ice finally break between President Xi Jingping and his US host Donald Trump? Were they able to transact some business at the White House after pomp and show displayed on arrival of President Xi? Diplomatic niceties and cordial atmosphere apart, there was not much in terms of take aways from the meeting held by President Xi and President Trump.
Does that mean they are back to square one squabbling and pointing fingers at each other with military buildup thrown in? This again is a firm no. Huge ambitions and expectations apart, biggest outcome during UN General Assembly engagements in New York and later at bilateral summit in Washington DC is that both are willing to engage honestly and wee bit openly on key issues.
They may continue to race with each other. The two may like to avoid direct confrontation. The G2: USA and China – may open a range of communication points. Is the big billed summit all about just opening communication lines? Or, some baby steps taken?
Donald Trump may have signed the Lindsay O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. If made operative, its implications are too huge. But Donald Trump may not be in a hurry to apply various provisions of this law on China. In effect, US will not slap 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods and services exports. The 100 per cent tariff is tied to China buying oil, gas and other merchandise from Russia and backing its partner Iran. The existing 26 per cent tariff will stay.
Well, even the three months pause on application of this one-sided draconian law would mean that Beijing will continue with its merchandise and goods exports to US. Beijing has a whopping US $ one trillion plus trade surpluses in its annual transactions with America.
Communist Party of China(CPC) and its oligarchs’ breath easy next three months as they scramble ways and means to doing business with US without derailing the delicate apple cart with Russia and Iran. The duo has been trusted partners of Beijing. Xi may not be willing to let go of his friendship with both Moscow and Tehran easily.
The three months reprieve would give time and enough elbow room to Beijing for readying counter measures and take on the deep state propelled United States that has not logically dealt with either friends or foes. For Trump, these three months would help shore up his dwindling electoral fortunes ahead of the November midterm polls where Republicans may be facing tough time with the electorate.
Wall Street Journal polls have reported that Trump’s approval ratings have dropped to 37 per cent, lowest for any incumbent President since 1990s. Inflationary pressure, economic uncertainties due to continued flare up in West Asia is what President Trump may be against while he seeks to campaign for Republican candidates in half a dozen states beginning next week.
Both Presidents, Xi and Trump seem to have reconciled that geo-strategic and economic differences will continue to mar their chances of striking a working relationship. For instance, President Xi may not have got any assurance from his American host on withdrawing support to Taiwan which Beijing considers as part of its larger communist empire.
Normalization of trade and investment relations in medium to long term may be too early to predict given competing interests, divergence in opinions and strategies. President Xi did not take any of his top business representatives to US. This definitely speaks volumes.
On Indo-Pacific also there may be no road map anytime soon given the divergent positions on freedom to navigate as per international maritime pacts without interference from Chinese naval vessels. Reports suggest that there’s no convergence on Artificial Intelligence related framework as well though top AI honchos were lined up by Trump at the dinner with President Xi. Presence of Sundar Pichai, Sam Altman and Jensen Huang at the state dinner did not un-nerve the Chinese delegation.
There was no joint communique at the end of summit level talks between President Xi and Donald Trump. And, this gave enough fodder for the paparazzi to make wild but intelligent guesses on what transpired between the two leaders and their A teams.
At the end, the big question was did the two leaders get into Thucydides trap? Or, is it an evolving relationship holding promise?
