Recently, Bharat’s economy surpassed the Japanese economy and emerged as the fourth-largest economy in the world. It achieved this big milestone with USD 4.19 trillion. Optically, USD 4.19 trillion as against the US economy (largest in the World) with a size of USD 29.6 trillion is minuscule. However, as one delves deeper into the details and well-being of citizens, one realises that the same Vada Pao, the same Chole Batura and the same Aloo Paratha, that costs Rs 25 to Rs 50 in Bharat, costs 7X the price if one considers equivalent staple food or snacks for the US.
Factors Working for Bharat
Similarly, a basic haircut for men in Bharat costs around Rs 100 to 150 (USD 2). However, the minimum cost for the same haircut in the US is USD 25 to USD 30 (10X to 15X as compared to Bharat).
If the comparison is made in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Bharat (securing 3rd position) already stands at USD 15 trillion as against the US economy, which is at USD 29 trillion (2nd largest) on PPP terms.
Though the quality of life, bliss quotient, satisfaction quotient, and relationship quotient (all three determine the general well–being of citizens of a country) is far better in Bharat as compared to the US, yet the glitter and attraction continue to exist for the US.
Having said so, Bharat continues to enhance her overall eudaimonia through Sanatan Sanskriti and yet progresses to proceed and prowess in the global economic measure of nominal GDP.
With a USD 4.19 trillion economy already under its belt, Bharat would need less than two years to achieve the next milestone of USD 5 trillion. The bigger question that arises is whether Bharat can expeditiously cross the USD 10 trillion mark (in nominal terms) and head into the big league with the US and China in nominal GDP terms. (Bharat pursuing Artha in conjunction and compliant with Dharma, while for the other two, Artha in any form matters).
The present leadership of Bharat takes a lot of strength from one of the shlokas from the sacred, revered scripture of Sanatan – Manusmriti.
Chapter 4, Verse 159 states
“सर्वं परवशं दुःखं सर्वमात्मवशं सुखम्”
(All that is subject to others’ control, others have say on it, and domination will eventually give pain, sorrow and grief.)
However, all that is under one’s control, on things one has dexterity and one has jurisdiction over, will lead to happiness, bliss and ultimate joy.
At Bharat’s Independence from the Britishers, Bharat’s economy (combined) in the world was the sixth largest, with a huge concentration of wealth only in the hands of cronies of the Britishers, who left due to the colossal losses and debt that struck them during the Second World War. Whilst leaving the country, they ensured Indian men with a British mindset and psyche continued to ruin the economy.
Mess Created by Congress
Between 1947 and 1991, Bharat slipped from the sixth largest economy to become 16th. In 1991, a crisis of high inflation of 13.7 per cent, massive trade deficit and a ruined underlying economy was staring in the face with USD 5.8 billion of foreign reserves (that could have lasted for only two weeks of essential imports) and 72 billion USD of external debt.
PV Narasimha Rao, the courageous Prime Minister who never got his due and whose death was also hushed and shoved with indignity ensured, the reversal of economic collapse happens, and Bharat emerges strong from nadir.
Unfortunately, post his initial reforms, the progressive approach was curbed, curtailed and culled by family politics and family politicians, who had and continue to have allegiance to the enemy rather than to the motherland.
But its rightfully said, “यः रक्षति देवः, न मारितुं शक्यते कश्चित्”
(The one who is protected by Almighty, Providence, and Eshwar can never be harmed)
This holds good for Punya Bhoomi Bharat, and change in thinking, change in perspective and change in outlook got established in 2014. Post massive corruption and scandals between 2009 and 2013, Bharat and Bharatiyas decided to bring a leadership that thinks, breathes and sleeps with the idea of #PrathamBharat.
Since then (in the last 11 years), unprecedented reforms have taken place across all spheres, including social, economic, judicial, educational, administrative and most importantly, bringing pride and honour amongst Bharatiyas for Bharat that had been subjugated, shaded and subdued by Dasatva (server mentality).
Changing Trajectory of Bharat’s Progress
For the rapid, wholesome and inclusive growth of the economy, it was pertinent that all economic reforms that should be undertaken impact the bottom of the pyramid and ensure that they last long, very long.
Many reforms were pursued, but the ones that have changed the trajectory for Bharat’s progression and that were established as three building blocks that transformed the Bedrock Foundation of Bharat for decades and centuries to come are as follows:
Democratisation of Capital
Just a decade and a half ago, PSUs and PSU banks were a bad word infested by corruption, crony capitalism and coterie politics. Despite experience, reach and network, PSU banks were making significant losses in aggregate.
Bharat had a deep parallel economy, and that parallel economy worked efficiently for tax evaders and black marketers, creating deep challenges for the economy and for the honest taxpayer.
There came the Jan Dhan – first big move, with a clear thinking to bring every Bharatiya into the formal financial sector.
However, it was bad politics, as it entailed getting formal documents and pain for the individuals to go and deposit their own money and then stand in the queue to withdraw their own money. Thus, pain for the common people, with a reduction in unaccounted cash transactions, meant masses, as well as illicit intermediaries, were unhappy with this action. But the leadership of the country, amidst mockery and criticism, pursued and made it mandatory that all Government benefits move through the formal banking system and not through physical cash. With Jan Dhan, Aadhar was introduced, and mobile and connectivity picked up steam. The Trinity of JAM – Jan Dhan, Aadhar and Mobile, created a system where no leakage from the middlemen pocketing most of the proceeds could happen in the Government schemes or theft or robbing of cash. Thus, end beneficiaries get the entire proceeds of the Government aid directly into their bank account.
Further, these accounts started building the transaction, banking and credit history of those who were away from the formal financial system, thereby giving them access to cheaper, affordable loans for home construction or purchase, business, education and personal emergencies. These benefits are directly accrued to the individuals and to the citizens of the country.
Demonetisation and GST further formalised the economy and enabled seamless money movement. But what it did to the country in a silent manner was to fiercely reduce the cost of capital for the country forever. Capital and cost of capital are one of the most determining and definitive factors that impact businesses, their growth and the future. Also, capital costs enable the viability of projects and infrastructure creation and the progress of the economy. The lower the cost of capital, the higher the money supply in the formal economy, and the better the probability for businesses to survive, succeed and generate profitability.
A clear example of lower interest costs is the home loan rate. In the US, the home loan pre-COVID-19 was 3.95 per cent, and today, the home loan rate in the US stands at seven per cent, a 77 per cent jump in borrowing cost.
In Bharat, the home loan cost in 2019 was 8.10 per cent and the rates in 2025 stand at 8.50 per cent (less than a five per cent increase.) Similarly, the total profitability of private sector banks in FY 2018 was Rs 42, 000 crore, whilst PSU banks had an aggregate loss of Rs 85,370 crore.
In FY 2024, private sector banking reported aggregate profits of 1.78 lakh crore, whilst PSU banks reported an aggregate profitability of Rs 1.40 lakh crore.
In FY 2014, a mere 18400 km of four-lane highways existed in Bharat, and that number grew to 50,000 Km by 2024 (What was created in 67 years, 170 per cent of it was created in mere 10 years.)
As the cost of capital came down, all infra projects became viable. This infrastructure further gave a big boost to businesses as the last-mile connectivity was enhanced, and most importantly, the logistics cost was reduced significantly, ensuring higher profits and business margins for businesses as well as lowering costs for the end consumers of the products.
As access to capital has been democratised, so has the jump in entrepreneurial activity. The number of startups in India has grown to 1.59 lakh in 2025 from 471, the third largest in the world.
Demographic Dividend by Digitisation
It’s common knowledge that Bharat is the home of 1.41 billion people, and 65 per cent of them are between the working age of 15 years to 59 years. The robust fertility rate is ensuring that demographics remain favourable for Bharat not for a decade but for decades to come. It’s forecasted by the World Bank that Bharat should continue to reap the benefit of demographic dividends till 2055 – 57.
However, this demographic dividend could have turned into a disadvantage if the people of the country are not healthy, educated, or skilled. Thanks again to the tech of the 21st Century, Government’s policy of low data charges, agility and easy adaptability of every Bharatiya to adopt new tech and new system, including 4G & 5G, the people, the population, and the community is getting education, skills, health and well-being advice at the click of a button.
The most phenomenal aspect of this entire digitisation episode is that most of the tech companies and the most advanced technology-driven platforms are owned by corporate czars in the West. However, the most advanced tech in Bharat, like Cowin in healthcare, is owned by the Government, ensuring its benefit percolates down to the last man standing. Additionally, the inherent nature of Indians has always been to adapt, and that’s what has been built in our roots. Bharat’s adoption rate of fintech is 87 per cent despite such a large, diverse and geographically spread-out population, whilst the world average stands at 64 per cent. With quick money movement, working capital requirements have been reduced, benefiting over six crore SMEs and MSMEs.
Demographic Dividend Creates Domination
With the world struggling with the challenge of a limited younger population and uncultured, uncouth, unyielding migrants, the West is in fear and shock.
For Bharat, the cornerstone is Sanatan Sanskriti and culture. Thus, wherever Bhartiya go, they create value for others and, in the process, for themselves.
Benefits of Demographic Dividend
The demographic dividend for Japan started in the 1950s and lasted till the 1990s. Japan’s post-Second World War (Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombing by the US) was not among the top 10 economies in the world. But by the end of the 1990s, Japan’s economy became the second largest in the world.
Similarly, the Chinese demographic dividend started in the 2000s when the Chinese economy was a meagre USD 1.47 trillion in 2002. In the next 23 years, it emerged as the second-largest economy with USD 19.2 trillion. Its demographic dividend will end by 2032 – 33.
For Bharat, the demographic dividend started in 2008-09 and will last till about 2055 -57.
A few years ago, in 2019, the Government of Bharat announced Rs 100 lakh crores of National Infrastructure aimed at creating jobs, creating infrastructure for trade and commerce, and creating a multiplier effect, believing that it would propel consumption, capex, and investments. Many mocked it at the time, but today, it has enabled Bharat to stand out as an oasis when the world is petrified by the possibility of a collapse in their financial systems due to global geopolitical headwinds and trade tariffs.
Furthermore, capex spending creates a circular effect across all sectors, thereby impacting the last man standing, and that is visible with the way poverty has been alleviated over the last 8-9 years.
Pragmatic Approach During Pandemic
The West was focused on doling out cash to boost demand during COVID-19 and post-pandemic so that people could spend money on goods (as services were shut) and ease up the burden of payment of Housing Loan and Education Loan EMIs, ignoring and not solving the supply side challenges. This misjudgment by the West pushed inflation four times. India, on the other hand, took initiatives during COVID-19 like Aatmanirbhar Bharat, PLI (Performance Linked Incentive) Schemes, the National Master Plan for Multi-modal Connectivity, and many more similar initiatives that aided in fixing up the challenges on the manufacturing side, nudging Bharat to get on the fast track of Make in India, Make for India and Make for World.
One has already seen that some of these initiatives have fructified into unrivalled success. For example, India has moved up the ladder to emerge as the second-largest mobile phone manufacturer and the world’s largest two-wheeler manufacturer.
Post-COVID-19, the pent-up demand got converted into real demand, and support in terms of free food, grains and vaccines ensured the health of the country remained intact.
Whilst Bharat focused on upfront infrastructure creation, healthcare, immunisation programmes and free food for health, ensuring that the common man remains safe and also benefits from this rapid growth of Bharat. Where the West is reeling under the heat of poverty and a crumbling healthcare system, Bharat has registered a decline of ten per cent in multidimensional poverty, the standard and parameters of which have been set up by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Boosting Indigenisation in Defence
The Government’s Defence Budget through the years has been between two per cent to three per cent of the GDP. However, the irony was that beyond opex, a large part of the capex that accounts for 26 per cent of the total defence budget was sent outside the country to buy arms, ammunition, weaponry and military items. However, in recent years, 70 per cent to 80 per cent of the defence procurements are manufactured within the country. This strengthens the country from within as well as along the borders. From being an import-oriented defence country, today, Bharat can boast of exporting defence and defence supplies to over 100 nations globally.
For Bharat to reach a 10 trillion USD economy, with 5 to 5.5 per cent inflation and an average real GDP growth of 7 per cent to 7.25 per cent, it will take 7 to 8 years. This means that in the early next decade, but surely before the mid-next decade, Bharat will be a 10 trillion USD economy. In other words, by 2033 -34, Bharat will be a 10 trillion USD economy. With a foundation of 3Ds in place and with the right tailwinds, political and national will and the Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam approach towards Dharma and Artha, this 10 trillion USD milestone will soon and surely be a reality.
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