Intro: By-polls have its own significance. The experts are being divided on the by-polls verdict. Some construed that it is the mandate on the sole governance of the state dispensation. But when analysed the by-polls consequences, it differs from state to state.
Though by-polls were held on 18 seats in different states. But due to its political developments the 10 assembly by-polls in Bihar were of some consequences. Since, Bihar is going to have Assembly polls in 2015. Bihar is going to be the sole state going to Assembly polls in 2015.
After Lok Sabha polls verdict, two sworn political rivals Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar joined hands on the ground of secularism. The Assembly polls brought these two personalities on the brink of disaster. They come to know that in order to remain in political reckoning they have no option but to join hands to tackle onslaught of resurgent BJP headed by its new team of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
In multi-party states the by-polls verdict is also guided by the local factors like the candidate selection, the local caste-wise composition, the role of the state dispensation along with others.
The by-polls was a landmark development as that brought all the anti-Congress Party forces on a platform to challenge late Rajiv Gandhi. The by-polls have the significance as these can bring such kind of realignments either at state level or at central level too.
If we compare the results in Bihar scenario, then we have many points to consider. In 2009 after LS poll under similar circumstances by-polls were held on 18 assembly seats. The then NDA in Bihar having BJP and the JD(U) as its constituents have 12 seats in its kitty in pre-poll scenario. But the NDA grabbed only 5 seats in the by-polls. But then 2010 Assembly polls has quite different result as the NDA made clean sweep. So in Bihar the by-polls do not reflect the mood of the people. In 1999 LS polls the then NDA had make clean sweep in Lok Sabha by winning 192 of the 324 Assembly seats in then then joint Bihar. But in 2000 Assembly polls the NDA bite the dust and RJD under Rabri Devi formed the Govt.
The by-polls has give lesson to the BIhar BJP that the political landscape has changed and they will have to adopt the new changed political scenario. Since the by-polls were the first such polls after the realignment of Laloo Yadav and Nitish Kumar along with the Congress Party so the BJP should have new strategy to counter the new political combination.
In Bihar, both the RJD-JD(U)-INC alliance and the NDA have three parties in their kitty. But the main task of the BJP is to distribute the seats judiciously and appropriate use of alliance partners Upendra Kushwaha and Ramvilas Paswan. These two alliance party leaders have good massbase on their own. The BJP state leadership in Bihar has completely ignored its alliance partners in seat distribution during the by-polls alongwith in campaigning too.
One of the reasons for poor performance by the BJP is that the analysts and the masses were expecting such performance by the BJP/NDA in by-polls as they performed during the LS polls. But in LS polls the case was completely different. Narendra Modi was the prime ministerial candidate then with different set of candidates too. But the by-polls were contested by the different candidates with the local leadership in reckoning. One of the reasons for not such performance by the BJP is that the voters of the BJP do not take the by-polls so seriously and their turnout on the day of polling was less than expected. Besides in Bihar the turnout in by-polls was low and in such situation the party which has strong local level network get maximum advantage. The message for the BJP leadership is that they come out from the triumphant mood of the LS polls and prepare with the new ground level reality.
In other state by-polls verdict the result was of mixed nature. But with respect to the results of the LS polls the INC has got great comfort in these by-polls. In Punjab, Karnataka and in Madhya Pradesh the changing of hands by the seats also show that people are not so satisfy with the performance of their local representative. The by-poll results also show that the voters are such cautious in choosing their leaders at different level at state level and at central level too. In day-to-day activity the role of the state leadership and the local represen have different set of assignments. —Abhay Kumar
