New Delhi/Islamabad: India will continue its decisive “Operation Sindoor” against Pakistan, launched in retaliation for the Pahalgam terror attack. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier issued a stark warning that “water and blood do not flow together,” signalling a shift toward tougher strategic measures. Soon after, India withdrew from the Indus Waters Treaty, delivering a major geopolitical blow to Pakistan. This was followed by the announcement of a massive hydroelectric project on the Chenab River in J&K, a move widely seen as further tightening pressure on Islamabad.
Now, India is preparing to block water flow on the Ravi River ahead of the summer season. Previously, excess Ravi water had been released into Pakistan, significantly supporting its agriculture-driven economy. That practice has now ended. Jammu and Kashmir Minister Ahmed Rana confirmed that surplus water previously sent across the border will instead be retained to meet summer requirements in Kathua and Samba districts. Pakistan has raised objections at multiple international forums over India’s withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty, but New Delhi has remained unmoved. Under the World Bank-brokered 1960 agreement, India holds full rights over the eastern rivers, including the Ravi and Sutlej, while Pakistan controls the western rivers: the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. However, India suspended cooperation following the Pahalgam attack, making clear that relations will not normalise until Pakistan completely abandons its policy of supporting terrorism.
Reports also indicate that Pakistan sought technical details about India’s Chenab hydropower project, but New Delhi declined to share information.
The impact could be severe. Agriculture accounts for roughly 25 per cent of Pakistan’s GDP, and nearly 80% of irrigation water originates from the Indus river system. Losing dependable access to Chenab and Ravi flows represents a serious shock to Pakistan’s farming sector, and its broader economy. Strategists believe this “water pressure” could eventually force Pakistan to reconsider its stance toward India.
Debt, IMF control, and a nation running on loans
As India tightens strategic screws, Pakistan continues to sink deeper into economic distress. The country has been surviving on borrowed money, with much of its fiscal policy effectively overseen by the International Monetary Fund. Even minor decisions now require IMF approval. A striking example involves contraception. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif recently proposed reducing taxes on condoms to make them affordable and help curb Pakistan’s soaring birth rate. But the plan backfired.
Pakistan currently imposes an 18% tax on contraceptives. When Sharif requested IMF permission to lower this levy, the Fund flatly rejected the appeal, stating that any such change could only be considered in the next financial year’s budget.
This episode highlights Pakistan’s shrinking economic sovereignty.
Despite receiving massive IMF assistance to manage its crisis, the country remains trapped in a cycle of debt and austerity. Domestic policy flexibility is limited, while inflation, unemployment, and currency pressures continue to strain ordinary citizens.
A leading Pakistani media outlet recently warned that economic recovery is impossible without curbing corruption and political interference. The article stressed that unless politicians fundamentally change their approach to governance, sustainable growth will remain out of reach. Yet instead of structural reforms taking centre stage, attention has shifted to remarks made by Pakistan’s finance minister that laid bare the depth of the crisis.
Population Explosion: Aurangzeb’s stark warning
Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has now identified what he calls the root cause of the country’s prolonged economic troubles: uncontrolled population growth.
Aurangzeb warned that Pakistan cannot achieve meaningful development while its population continues to expand at the current pace. If trends persist, he said, the country could soon cross 400 million people, raising serious questions about governance, employment, and social stability.
The government, he admitted, already struggles to provide jobs for its existing population of around 250 million.
Aurangzeb urged citizens to support family planning efforts, stressing that the state alone could not manage the demographic pressure. He also called for increased private investment as a pathway toward recovery.
In a notable comparison, the finance minister suggested adopting Bangladesh’s population-control model. While Pakistan often looks to Bangladesh as a benchmark for economic growth and taxation reforms, Aurangzeb asked why the same country is not studied for its success in managing demographic expansion.
Turning to technology, he said Pakistan’s future depends heavily on IT exports. Current figures stand at about $3–4 billion annually, with hopes of increasing that to $8–10 billion. However, available statistics suggest that Pakistan’s ambitions in this sector still trail far behind those of regional competitors.
Meanwhile, reports indicate Pakistan, now among countries with the world’s highest birth rates, has failed to stabilise contraceptive prices. The 18 per cent tax on birth-control products remains intact due to IMF restrictions, making family planning less accessible for millions.
With IMF loans propping up the economy, Pakistan must seek prior approval for nearly every fiscal adjustment. This dependence underscores how deeply external lenders now shape the country’s domestic policies. As India applies strategic pressure through water management and infrastructure development, Pakistan faces a mounting convergence of crises, shrinking agricultural security, ballooning debt, and a population growing faster than its economy. Whether Islamabad can reverse course through reform, investment, and demographic control remains uncertain. For now, the twin forces of geopolitics and internal instability continue to tighten their grip, leaving Pakistan with diminishing room to manoeuvre.
