Washington: Greater US influence over the Venezuelan oil sector could potentially work to India’s advantage, particularly for Indian companies with long-standing but small investments in the country. ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL), the overseas operations arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, has a joint venture in Venezuela’s San Cristobal oil field. OVL holds a 40 per cent stake in the project, but Venezuela has failed to pay dividends amounting to $53.6 crore that were due to the company. With accumulated interest, the outstanding amount has now crossed $100 crore. In addition, crude oil exports linked to this investment have come to a halt. If Washington succeeds in consolidating control over Venezuela’s energy sector, New Delhi may find an opportunity to recover these long-pending dues and potentially resume exports.
Apart from OVL, several other Indian firms maintain direct or indirect business interests in Venezuela. Despite these corporate links, Venezuela does not constitute a major trading partner for India. During 2024–25, India’s total imports from Venezuela stood at just $36.45 crore, of which crude oil accounted for $255 million. Indian exports to Venezuela were even smaller, at $95.3 million, with pharmaceutical products contributing $25.5 crore. Given these modest figures, the ongoing crisis in Venezuela is unlikely to have a direct or severe impact on India’s overall trade position.
However, indirect effects remain a concern. Any sustained rise in global oil and gold prices, or broader disruptions in the international economy triggered by geopolitical instability, could have downstream implications for India. However, at present, early signals suggest that financial markets are not overly alarmed. In the United States, futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite rose by up to 0.3 per cent. Asian markets also posted strong gains, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 surging 2.26 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI advancing 1.42 per cent to a record high. Markets in Europe also opened with positive sentiment. In India, the GIFT Nifty rose by 70 points in early trade, signalling continued gains for the Sensex and Nifty 50. In the previous session, the Sensex had climbed 575 points, or 0.67 per cent, while the Nifty gained 182 points, or 0.70 per cent, crossing the 26,320 mark.
The Venezuelan turmoil is not expected to materially disrupt global oil supply, as the country currently wields limited influence over the international crude market. Nevertheless, oil prices, which had earlier declined by nearly 1 per cent, have begun to edge higher. WTI crude rose 0.51 per cent to $57.61 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 0.61 per cent to $61.12. One factor supporting prices is the stance of OPEC+, which has indicated it may delay plans to increase output amid current uncertainties. This view is shared by key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman. Venezuela itself is a founding member of OPEC. Gold prices have also moved higher, reflecting their traditional safe-haven appeal during periods of geopolitical tension. International gold prices rose by $83.41 per ounce to $4,402, while silver surged 5.61 per cent to $75.68. As a result, gold and silver prices are expected to rise in the Indian market as well.
