Economist Ruchir Sharma once said, ‘India disappoints both optimists and pessimists,’ A line that captures Bihar even more perfectly. Just when we think we finally understand its politics, Bihar tears up the script and returns with an entirely new avatar. This is perhaps the last election on Nitish Kumar, but he triumphs this legacy of politics. Bihar’s 2025 assembly election will be remembered as a historic watershed, not merely for the National Democratic Alliance’s landslide victory, but for what it represents: the twilight of two colossal political legacies that have defined the state for over three decades. As Nitish Kumar, at 74, prepares for what is almost certainly his final term before retiring by 2030 due to age and health considerations, and as Lalu Prasad Yadav’s direct political presence or his era of ‘jungle raj’ recedes into symbolic memory, Bihar stands at the precipice of profound generational change.
The 2025 verdict marks the end of an era spanning from “jungle raj” to “sushashan”, setting the stage for new faces, fresh alliances and evolving issues that will dominate the 2030 electoral contest. But now we will focus on how this happened. Before the announcement of election everyone was quite hesitated on the future role of Nitish Kumar and his poor health but after the result he emerges as the face saviour of NDA not as a burden for NDA. So technically this election is all about Nitish Kumar. Because we witness the pro-incumbency for Nitish Kumar. Now we will analyse the reason behind the miraculous victory.
The comeback of BJP
The BJP’s resurgence in Bihar in 2025 was not a coincidence; it stemmed from invaluable lessons learned during the party’s challenging experience in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Just six months earlier, the BJP managed to secure only 9 out of 28 seats in Maharashtra’s parliamentary elections and faced similar difficulties nationwide. The Maharashtra state assembly elections held in November 2024 served as a proving ground for the party’s new strategy. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance made a significant recovery in Maharashtra, winning 231 out of 288 seats, with the BJP alone claiming 133 seats. This achievement provided a blueprint for the party to emulate. The strategy aimed at tackling local anti-incumbency, conducting targeted campaigns, promoting strong welfare messaging—with particular emphasis on the Ladki Bahin Yojana for women and utilizing the organizational strength of the RSS to garner voter support among alliance partners.
The party achieved a strike rate of 90 per cent, demonstrating that effective implementation could overcome broader electoral obstacles. Bihar closely mirrored this approach. The BJP differentiated between national appeal, as embodied by Modi’s assurance and local governance concerns. They showcased welfare initiatives as tangible proof of their dedication and established an unparalleled coalition through collaboration with JD(U), LJP(RV) and regional Dalit leaders. The results were noteworthy: the BJP emerged as the largest party with 89 seats, an increase from 74 in 2020, while the NDA collectively exceeded 200 seats in the 243-member assembly, signifying their strongest performance since 2010.
The battle of Mokama
Mokama, known as the “Capital of Bhumihars,” became the focal point of a heated electoral contest in 2025. The rivalry here went beyond mere politics; it was deeply personal, as two influential strongmen confronted one another, influencing caste alliances throughout Bihar. Anant Singh rose as a giant killer by defeating Veena Devi, the wife of Suraj Bhan Singh, a prominent Bhumihar Bahubali leader in Bihar. A crucial moment came with the murder of Dularchand in Mokama, which surprisingly united the Bhumihar community behind Anant Singh. His arrest did not diminish his standing; rather, it bolstered his appeal and unified Bhumihars in Mokama and its surrounding regions.
The political atmosphere in Mokama had repercussions beyond the local constituency, affecting neighbouring districts like Begusarai, Lakhisarai, Nalanda, Munger and Sheikhpura, where significant populations of Bhumihars and Yadavs existed, creating similar rifts. Across Bihar, Bhumihars, who represent about 5 per cent of the state’s population, displayed strong support for the NDA, despite the presence of candidates in both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan. This transformation was directly linked to the political developments in Mokama. The only minor exception was Lalganj, where Shivani Shukla’s Bhumihar identity managed to draw some votes for the RJD, indicating a definitive shift of Bhumihar loyalty toward the NDA in 2025.
The Yadav paradox: Neo-feudalism fear and the collapse of RJD support
A major turnaround in the 2025 Bihar election was that the Yadav community, which once was RJD’s most valued asset, turned out to be its biggest liability. Yadavs, about 14.27 per cent of the population, had attained exceptional political and land supremacy under Lalu Prasad Yadav, but while this empowered the community, it created growing anxiety among non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, and dalits who feared Yadav over-assertion. This produced a “neo-feudalism fear”, whereby the non-Yadav castes were afraid that a RJD return would mean Yadav monopolization of resources and patronage. This has been reflected in the exit polls: even as the Mahagathbandhan retained Yadav and Muslim support, there was a virtual collapse in the non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs and Dalits. As a result, these latter groups moved on to NDA, preferring it to possible Yadav dominance.
The Muslim vote: Betrayal or wise community assertion?
The 2025 Bihar election marked an unprecedented rupture in the Muslim-Yadav alliance, hitherto shaping state politics for almost three decades. Over the years, Bihar’s Muslims, about 18 per cent of the population, supported the RJD because Lalu Prasad Yadav’s politics of social justice appeared to protect the minorities as well as the backward classes. In 2020, close to three-fourths of Muslim voters chose the Mahagathbandhan, but this bonding weakened sharply in 2025.
The AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, succeeded in retaining its five Seemanchal seats – Jokihat, Amour, Kochadhaman, Bahadurganj and Baisi, despite the earlier defection of four MLAs to the RJD. This verdict basically implied that Muslim voters were now rallying behind the idea of a distinct Muslim political voice rather than voting for the RJD out of habit. AIMIM’s appeal lay in its explicit claim i.e. there are specific political interests of Muslims that cannot be folded into the larger backward-caste agenda.
There was one notable outlier. In Raghunathpur, Muslims voted for the Mahagathbandhan once more because the RJD fielded Osama Shahab, son of the influential Bahubali Mohammed Shahabuddin. Here, loyalty flowed not to the alliance but to the Shahabuddin legacy. Overall, the shift signalled a strategic recalibration. Muslims supported leaders like from AIMIM or Osama Shahab who directly prioritized Muslim concerns rather than depending on the old MY framework.
Caste reconfiguration: The collapse of MY and the rise of ME
Caste arithmetic has always been the bedrock of Bihar’s electoral outcomes, but 2025 saw a tectonic shift. The once-powerful Muslim-Yadav bloc that sustained RJD for decades finally fell apart, while NDA united the extremely backward classes-36 per cent of the population-with upwards of 60 per cent backing. Dalits, too, shifted in large numbers towards the alliance, giving it nearly three-fourths of their votes, while a strong majority of OBCs followed. Much of this movement came from fears of rising Yadav dominance under RJD. From this churn emerged a new “ME” axis-Mahila plus EBC-women voters and EBCs who associated Nitish Kumar’s governance with stability, welfare and upward mobility, redefining Bihar’s electoral logic.
The women’s wave: Bihar’s new electoral kingmakers
If there was one section of the population that decided Bihar 2025, it was women. For the first time in the state’s electoral history, women outvoted men not just in percentage terms but in absolute numbers. With overall turnout at 66.9 per cent, women recorded an impressive 71.6 per cent, far above men’s 62.8 per cent. Nearly 2.52 crore women voted, five lakhs more than men. the Mukhyamantri Kanya Utthan Yojana, which provides Rs. 50,000 to girl students completing graduation, reached lakhs of families. Direct benefit transfers of Rs. 10,000 were deposited into the accounts of over 1.5 crore women before the election. Women-focused schemes spanning education, self-help groups, employment reservations in Panchayati raj institutions and old-age pensions created a grateful, mobilized constituency that voted en masse for the NDA. These sustained benefits created a loyal, mobilized constituency that firmly backed the NDA and reshaped Bihar’s electoral landscape.
The Dawn of a New Bihar
Indeed, the 2025 Bihar assembly election represents the “Battle of Legacies.” The endgame of two titanic political lineages faces off: Lalu Prasad Yadav’s populist “social justice” era versus Nitish Kumar’s two-decade “sushashan” governance model. BJP’s strategic comeback is organizationally formidable.
Caste, women and welfare schemes have recast Bihar’s political terrain, signalling that the future of Bihar. The collapse of the MY coalition and the rise of the ME alliance, unprecedented political mobilization of women voters and electoral validation of direct welfare delivery have constructed new rules of engagement. Indeed, this became the cornerstone of future Bihar politics.
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