The recent talks at Alaska, between the US President Trump and the Russian President Putin on Russia-Ukraine war can be termed as ‘some movement forward’. Though no major outcome has been reported, but it is for the first time that there is a degree of seriousness to end more than 3 years long war. Even though the ceasefire has not been agreed either by President Putin or by President Zelensky of Ukraine, there is a possibility of cessation of hostilities, if sincere attempts are made. The war has stretched for such a long time that it can end only when there is a notion of victory for each stakeholder.
In the conventional war of earlier era, victory signified achieving the laid down objectives and ‘victory’ was predominantly conclusive in nature. These could be territorial gains, destruction of enemy’s war waging capability, establishing political dominance or birth of a new nation. It was said to be ‘inconclusive victory’ where one side or both sides win some territory or some battles but all the war objectives are not achieved by any one side. This leads to future wars because fundamental problem between the two warring nations does not get resolved.
As the world approached 21st century, the contemporary definitions of victory became more relative rather than absolute or so-called decisive victory. This was because the wars acquired hybrid nature where wars were fought in multiple domains of terrain; kinetic means, non-kinetic application, cyber warfare, internal security dimension and economic sanctions. The war may be fought between two nations but the powers behind the war could be many more. Thus, it is important to understand the ‘Notion of Victory’ in each conflict in the contemporary era. Russia-Ukraine war is a classic example of a modern war where all these aspects can be seen.
In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, four key players or their stakeholders are visible, these being Russia, Ukraine, European nations and America. Russia started this war thinking that it would subjugate Ukraine in quick time. Little did Russia realize that Ukraine would not only withstand initial losses but would retaliate with the support of US and the European nations. Under Trump 2.0 administration, the US has not extended that type of military support to Ukraine as was available under President Biden administration. But the stakes are high for President Trump because he has taken the stance that he would end Russia-Ukraine war soon, right from his election campaign days. Thus, to end the Russia-Ukraine war, each side or grouping would need their satisfactory ‘Notion of Victory’.
Russia has captured some parts of the Ukraine territory and it is unlikely that Russia would return all thee captured territories. But there is a scope to negotiate on what it is going to keep and what it can return back to Ukraine. The concerned stakeholders can discuss what captured territory of Ukraine would remain with Russia. Thereafter, a fresh international border between Russia and Ukraine can be redrawn. With an understanding that Ukraine would not become part of NATO alliance, Russia with some captured territory could claim its ‘Notion of Victory’ under President Putin.
Ukraine has received the full backing of the European nations in the year 2025 when the US restricted its support under President Trump. While the European nations like the UK, Germany, France, Italy etc. have provided economic support and military hardware to Ukraine, no soldier from these nations are fighting the war on ground. Thus, the support of European nations is more of a moral nature. The ongoing conflict also provides European nations to exert as a powerful grouping to counter the growing influence of the US under President Trump. But there is a limit to the European support to Ukraine and most of the European nations are struggling economically. Therefore, the ‘Notion of Victory’ for President Zelensky would be return of its captured territory by Russia and a promise to rebuild his nation. For the European nations, the continued support of NATO by the US and an understanding on non- expansionist policy of Russia would be sufficient.
More than the US, the ‘Notion of Victory’ for President Trump is going to be challenging. President Trump has already signed a deal which gives the US mining rights in Ukraine. So, the businessman in President Trump should be satisfied. President Trump would also like more free hand while dealing with the European nations. With Russia, it would exert for more business on favourable terms. President Trump is looking for a place in history and would also apparently expect a Nobel Peace Prize for ending the Russia-Ukraine war and this will be the ‘Notion of Victory’ for President Trump.
Each side has to accommodate the complexities of modern warfare and accept the best possible, mutually acceptable ‘Notion of Victory’. Let this glimmer of hope for peace between Russia and Ukraine be galvanized with time bound concrete diplomacy and mature leadership, in the interest of global peace. Meanwhile, India has welcomed the peace talks at Alaska. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has always advocated for peace in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
