South Asian region has always been under the nose of geopolitical condensation between high-medium powers. Since the Cold War, the area has threatened the balance of power. It was Americans and Soviets; now it is Chinese and Americans. Interestingly, as medium powers progress towards high-power, like India and the US, expected to shift their focus towards Asia, the South Asia landscape may see a heightened strategic competition scenario in the coming time.
The Great Game
In the past few years, especially after the Bangladesh crisis, India’s traditional sphere of influence was under tension as India’s eastern and western frontiers became unstable in the West- The af-Pak region and east- Bangladesh witnessed a dramatic coup. The eastern frontier after the Dhaka episode became more tense as India was already negotiating a tense situation in Myanmar after a coup in 2021, keeping its North East borders secure from drug and arms cartels, which had a surge ever since the Manipur crises began in 2023. Measured diplomatic and watching from the fence approaches were kind of mood-observing behaviours, which were no more effective given dynamically evolving strategic security where, at one end, Pakistan is pressing hard to develop strategic depth, especially after the Afghanistan debacle and Bangladesh crises and the other hand China show off tactics and the clandestine drug-arm cartel was attempting to weaken the North Eastern region, especially Indo-Myanmar border. If we pay closer attention to recent regional developments in and around South Asia, undercurrents challenging Delhi’s Sphere of Influence are quietly building up.
Pakistan’s Intelligence Chief’s visit to Dhaka after decades indicates that Pakistan is opening a sense of strategic depth against India after its Afghanistan strategy has backfired. There is an interesting opportunity for Pakistan if it gets nurtured well. First, sustainable strategic strategies against India by staging terror proxy groups- a strategy that has been in an eroding position for a few years. Second, it sets the stage for Pakistan-China-Bangladesh strategic and economic cooperation, which can help Pakistan with its short-term financial problems. Third, suppose the above two things get into the flow. In that case, Pakistan can carve out tactical sustainability and pursue an anti-Taliban campaign in full throttle, which is currently limited due to multiple crises at home.
Easier Said Than Done: Pakistan-China Axis
Pakistan’s diplomacy in Bangladesh and China, as well as a recent one in Turkey, is perhaps an attempt to design a strategic competition clubbing Bangladesh’s factor in the Pak-China axis against India. This diplomatic manoeuvring by Pakistan carries some weight, at least in the long run, as highlighted above; however, it is not too easy for Pakistan to carve a silver lining from this brewing diplomatic game in South Asia.
First, Absence of Full Backhand Support In Bangladesh- The Yunus regime enjoyed the US’s clandestine support, but with a regime change in the US- that would be adjusted with evolving Asian geopolitical realities. Bangladesh would have limited options to entirely bank on China as Dhaka must also keep the US in its court. The void in full backhand support will create problems for Yunus, who will face mounting pressure to call early elections in Bangladesh.
Second, Increasing Taliban threat in Pakistan- recently, Tajik militant organisations supported by the Taliban have established their presence in Afghanistan with the support of Al Queda. The threat for Pakistan from Af-Pak is growing, especially after the ISIS-K resurgence, which is attempting to establish itself in Afghanistan. If it goes out of the grip, then this security nightmare is enough for Pakistan to not make much noise in the neighbourhood.
Third, China and Turkey, Pakistan’s close strategic partners, may carefully deal with it. Turkey has already observed a moderate response to the backdrop of Pakistan’s President’s visit. Turkey’s President recently made a statement- India and Pakistan should resolve the Kashmir issue through dialogue, in the backdrop of the visit that shows some such signs. China is expected to focus more on the US, as in the Trump administration, and the US will take China head-on, especially in South Asia theatre. Such diverted attention and efforts of Pakistan’s all-weather partners will make initiating a strategic competition or great game-like situation targeting India challenging. This highlights the intricate challenges Pakistan faces in the geopolitical game in South Asia.
India’s Deft Diplomacy And Growing Depth With US
India’s deft diplomacy, with its strategic foresight, is a catalyst in the progress of adapting to the evolving geopolitical reality in South Asia. On the one hand, this deft diplomacy will help moderate and negotiate with emerging threats and attempt to increase and secure India’s traditional sphere of influence.
New Delhi’s efforts in engaging with the Taliban and even allowing them to send their representative to Afghanistan’s Embassy, which almost saw no diplomatic presence ever since the Taliban takeover. The most notable deft diplomacy was with Bangladesh and Myanmar, where New Delhi engaged with top leaders of BNP and attempted to influence and moderate relations with Bangladesh, which underwent significant change after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Myanmar last year, New Delhi invaded Myanmar’s rebel group to negotiate a deteriorating security situation at its North Eastern border, impacting Manipur.
The increasing clout of India’s deft diplomacy puts New Delhi in a good spot not only to progress but also to contest the changing power dynamics of South Asia. The Prime Minister’s recent visit to the US has led to tectonic movements in the power balance of South Asia. Indo-US deepening strategic ties with initiatives like COMPACT and TRUST to explore multi-dimensional areas of cooperation, especially in Technology and defence, can build a strong US axis in developing multilateral forums such as Indo-Pacific, enlarging strategic and political salience at the regional level.
However, what is intriguing is Trump’s offer of F-35 jets to India. This offer, which New Delhi should seriously consider, has the potential to influence the power balance in South Asia. India does not possess standalone air striking capability and does not have a fifth-generation fighter jet. Suppose India agrees to this deal after considering its acquisition needs and calculations. In that case, it will be a game-changer as it will put India in direct competition with China in terms of Air superiority. Air denial operations and air striking capabilities against Pakistan would significantly increase, giving India an option for carrying out more precise and in-depth strikes inside Pakistan without much noise, as the F-35 comes with a high degree of stealth. India’s increase in offensive and deterrence capabilities will surely stir the China-Pak axis, but that’s what the US wants. They want to push China to such a limit that the US can significantly influence Asian power dynamics against China to contain its overreaching sphere of influence in and around the South and Southeast region. At the same time, the US continues to develop its political and strategic clout in the region through West-Asia-Asia and Indo-Pacific theatres.
As that is in the making in West Asia and Europe, there is ample space for India’s deft diplomacy and Indo-US relationship to explore not only geopolitics but also geostrategics that will open South Asia to significant multilateral connections, ultimately contributing to India’s strategic rise in the world order. However, a caveat in this bright possibility is the dangers of misadventure and miscalculations by those who will come under intense pressure to respond to India’s strategic rise and Asia’s changing power balance.
