In a strong assertion of India’s economic potential, Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, has stated that the country is well on its way to achieving developed nation status by 2047. Speaking at the 49th Civil Accounts Day celebrations in New Delhi, Panagariya highlighted the growth trajectory India needs to sustain to reach a $9.5 trillion economy in the next decade and a high-income status by 2047.
Panagariya outlined that from 2003-24, India has grown at an average of 10.1 per cent in dollar terms at current prices. If this momentum continues, India’s economy will expand to $9.5 trillion in the next ten years. He emphasized the need for macroeconomic stability and democratic governance as key factors in maintaining this growth trajectory.
A critical milestone in India’s economic journey is reaching a per capita income of $14,000 by 2047. With India’s per capita income currently standing at $2,570 (2023-24), Panagariya stressed that achieving this goal requires a 7.3 per cent annual per capita income growth rate. “At 2023-dollar values, India needs a per capita income of $14,000 to attain high-income status. With steady economic growth, this target is achievable,” he stated.
One of the crucial factors supporting India’s economic ambitions is its controlled population growth. Panagariya noted that the population is projected to grow at just 0.6 percent per year until 2047, creating a favourable environment for economic expansion. “The prospects of the Viksit Bharat ambition thus remain realizable,” he added.
Commenting on India’s recent GDP trends, Panagariya observed that while the first two quarters of FY25 showed a slight slowdown, Q3 demonstrated strong recovery. He urged analysts to consider long-term trends rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations. “If the GDP figure is low even in a single quarter, speculation begins on the aim of Viksit Bharat,” he said, emphasizing the importance of maintaining confidence in India’s economic direction.
Highlighting the country’s social progress, Panagariya noted that poverty has significantly declined, regardless of the measurement approach.
India’s journey towards economic expansion is also being fueled by rapid investment in infrastructure. Government-led initiatives such as the Gati Shakti scheme and increased capital expenditure in roads, railways, and energy sectors are expected to provide a significant boost to GDP growth. Panagariya stressed the importance of sustained investments in physical and digital infrastructure to enhance productivity and economic output.
Technology and Innovation as Growth Drivers: With India’s rise as a global technology hub, sectors like digital payments, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor manufacturing are poised to play a crucial role in economic expansion. The government’s focus on fostering innovation and start-up culture is expected to accelerate economic diversification and create high-value employment opportunities.
Global Trade and Economic Positioning: As India strengthens trade ties with global partners through free trade agreements and regional partnerships, its role in international markets is expanding. Panagariya pointed out that increasing exports, attracting foreign direct investment, and enhancing ease of doing business will be key to sustaining high economic growth in the coming decades.
