The Israel-Palestine conflict, which started after Hamas infiltrated into Isreal territory on October 7, 2023 as a part of “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood”, has been marked by acts of extreme violence, cruelty, and volatile international support to both ends. The operation was one of its kind that involved thousands of rockets being launched and ground attacks within the Israeli territory leading to more than 1400 civilian casualties and hundreds of civilians being taken as hostage. This attack was seen as a massive escalation and threat to peace and sovereignty by Israel, in response to which Israel launched “Operation Iron Sword”, a military offensive against Hamas in Gaza.
As time passed, Israel tightened its grip over the Gaza Strip, cutting off almost everything, including essential supplies being sent to Gaza. The actions were not only limited to limiting supplies to Gaza and ground invasion by Israel but were also coupled with air strikes, that led to a massive humanitarian crisis in the Gaza region, which also came with much international criticism. Reports published by several UN agencies and other entities indicate that thousands of civilian lives have been lost in Gaza due to these restrictions and military invasions.
Hezbollah, another group backed by Iran entered the conflict by attacking Isreal on its northern Border from Lebanon, which gave rise to a new conflict zone, escalating the already ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict to a larger regional war. Iran’s support to both Hamas and Hezbollah has been very evident from the fact that Iran has been lobbying for both the groups and calling for Islamic Unity against Israel. US involvement in the region and its support to Israel amidst the war is very crucial. US has issued several warnings to Iran, which is seen, especially since its active involvement, which became more evident after December 2023. It was assumed that the deployment of more US military assets in the region would act as a deterrent and restrict the conflict, and add more pressure on Iran. However, its also to be noted that after several efforts by President Biden to broker peace through diplomatic efforts and his call for a humanitarian ceasefire have failed to bore any fruits till now, as no side is ready to compromise.
Since the beginning of 2024, the tensions, especially because of the Gaza operation, have been very heightened, mass protests have been seen in various Arab nations, against the Israel’s actions in Gaza supported by the West. Iran’s involvement in the war through its proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, amongst others have also attacked US bases in the region, inviting strikes from the US in retaliation. Around the middle of 2024 the situation in Gaza reached a dangerous stage, when it was reported that around 10,000 civilian lives had been lost. Severe damage to the health infrastructure, almost leading to a systematic collapse in the region has given a major blow to the ongoing diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire in the region.
After months of border skirmishes, Hezbollah launched a series of rocket attacks deep into Israel, prompting a massive Israeli military response, which also lead the targeted killing of Hezbollah Leader, Hassan Nasrallah in a air strike conducted by Israeli Air Force in September 2024.
This operation significantly impacted Hezbollah and its efforts against Israel. Nasrallah’s death is not only a critical loss for Hezbollah but also to the Iranian grip over the region through its proxies. Nasrallah played a crucial role in establishing Hezbollah and played an instrumental role in setting up Iran’s network of proxies across the Arab region.
Israeli PM Netanyahu praised the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on the killing of Nasrallah as mentioned it as “changing the balance of power in the region for years to come”. Recent reports also attract a lot of attention, as Israel claims to have eliminated Senior Members of Iran’s Revolutionary guards, including Deputy Commander Abbas Niforoushan, in another air strikes. Days prior to the airstrike, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had issued a stark warning to Nasrallah, advising him to flee Lebanon. The message was delivered by Nilforoushan, who tragically found himself in the bunker with Nasrallah when the Israeli bombs struck. Following these events, Khamenei, who has remained in a secure location within Iran, personally ordered a retaliatory barrage of around 200 missiles to be launched at Israel, marking a dramatic escalation in hostilities in the region.
During this war, the world is only able to see rising civilian casualties, and collapse of peace in the region, with no signs of the end of war. All sides remains locked in a cycle of attacks and counter attacks.
Why does Iran appear poised for a direct confrontation?
Iran launched over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, targeting three Israeli Air Force bases. Iran’s apparent readiness for a full-blown conflict with Israel can be attributed to a confluence of political, ideological, and strategic factors that have evolved significantly in recent months.
Iran has positioned itself as a nation that tries to stand firmly for the Palestinian cause as a staunch opponent of the “Zionist Regime”, i.e., Isreal. The deep-rooted ideological stance that also is looked upon as the foundation pillars of the Republic of Iran have also intensified the sentiments. Support of Iran’s top leadership for group like Hamas and Hezbollah remains the main strength of the groups in their fight against the IDF, for the so-called Palestinian cause.
The efforts that Iran has put in establishing an extensive network of Shiite militant groups throughout the region in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Siriya have gained attention in this fight against Isreal. The attacks on Gaza have served as a rallying point for all these proxies to escalate activities against Israel together as one force, operating from a latter territorial area. The interconnectedness of these groups enables Iran to exert influence without direct military engagement, allowing it to leverage asymmetric warfare tactics.
The Iranian regime may also see an escalated conflict with Israel as a means to consolidate internal support. Amid economic difficulties exacerbated by sanctions and domestic dissent, rallying the populace around an external enemy can divert attention from internal issues. The government has historically used the “enemy within” narrative to unify citizens under a common cause.
The recent US and Israeli actions appear to be an indication of a more suitable environment for military engagement by the Iranian regime. US military forces are already stretched too much across the globe trying to tackle tensions between Russia and Ukraine and rise of China in the South China Sea, directly challenging the US hold over the region, is being viewed as the best time for provoking escalation against Israel by the Iranian regime. This is also coupled by the strategy to engage Israel in multiple fronts to distribute the military capabilities of Israel, which in turn would allow the proxies to inflict maximum damage to the Zionist Regime.
Iran itself has also focused on increasing its military capabilities through its efforts to enhance missile technology, drone warfare and the development of nuclear technology. Iran has also been supplying the required arms needed to strike Israel to its proxies through various routes, increasing their strike capabilities. This growing arsenal, coupled with training and support for regional militias, has made the prospect of direct confrontation more feasible from Tehran’s perspective. The geopolitical shift, amidst US efforts to navigate newer strategies to tackle Iran between the ongoing tensions with China and Russia, has also allowed room to Iran to develop a deeper relation with Russia and China in its efforts to destabilise Israel, and as a shield against the Western Sanctions.
This convergence of ideological fervor, military capability, and shifting alliances points to an increasingly precarious Middle East, where regional conflicts have the potential to spiral into larger confrontations with global implications.
Potential Results of a Direct Israel-Iran Conflict
A direct military conflict between Israel and Iran has become increasingly possible especially in light of recent developments, including Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s missile strikes on Israel. This situation undermines the future prospect of the middleast bringing it one step closer to a more volatile geopolitical future, that can take the entire region to economic and social backwardness.
The military confrontation between Israel and Iran is an unique conflict in itself. Israel has advance technologies, state-of-the-art weapon systems like the “Iron Dome System” and one of the most renowned intelligence units in the world like Mossad, giving it a significant advantage over Iran in various aspects. On the contrary, Iran relies on its extensive network of proxies to strike Israel, keeping the risk of a direct confrontation far away from its actual boundaries, as both nations do not share any direct land boundary. It can also not be ruled out that Iran’s missile capabilities possess an eminent threat to Israeli cities and military installations.
In case both countries come into a direct confrontation, Israel would likely initiate airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military assets. In response to which Iran’s response could involve ballistic or Hypersonic missile attacks aimed at important Israeli cities, coupled with escalated actions from Hezbollah the northern front. This scenario would strain the IDF and lead to thousands If not millions of civilian casualties on both sides, as recent hostilities have already highlighted.
In case a direct conflict occurs between Israel and Iran it would lead to a widespread destabilisation in the Middle East. Countries like Lebanon, Siriya, Yemen and Gaza are already suffering the brunt of an economic collapse since the last few decades, which is supposed to worsen in case all their countries hosting Iranian proxies are asked to jump in the war. This could lead to a dramatic shift, which would make Iran a threat to Saudi and UAE, allowing more support to Israel, eventually escalating the war further and destabilising the region.
The economic impact of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran would make an impact worldwide, primarily disrupting to oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage that accounts for nearly 20% of global oil. Iran soon after the Iranian revolution, has been threatening to block the strait in times of conflict, as a move that could lead to a massive hike in oil prices, which in turn would lead to inflationary pressures, and economic downturns globally. The instability in the Middle East region is most likely to hit foreign investment globally, further straining economies already in crisis, particularly in nations hosting Iranian proxies like Lebanon and Syria. Additionally, the reconstruction costs post-conflict would be staggering for Iran and Lebanon, both of which are already suffering economically.
The world would witness a dynamic geopolitical shift, as US would be forced to enter the conflict from Israeli side which would directly expert more pressure on US military infrastructure. This US assistance would also have to be extended to the Gulf Sates who probably will ally with Israel as a part of the Adharma Accords or would want to become a part of the said accord.
Iran’s ambitions to develop an nuclear weapon continues to remain a critical factor in the Israel-Iran conflict. A direct military confrontation would wither push or bring an end to Iran’s nuclear program, depending on the result and stretch of the conflict. Preemptive strikes by Israel on Iranian nuclear sites could provoke international backlash and trigger environmental consequences. Moreover, a prolonged conflict might encourage regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, to pursue their own nuclear capabilities, triggering a regional arms race that undermines the “Non-Proliferation Treaty” or the NPT and poses long-term security threat to the Middle East.
The implications of a direct Israel-Iran conflict are massive, with potential military, economic, humanitarian, and geopolitical consequences that would last for decades if not centuries. The unique nature of military capabilities possessed by the conflicting nations, and the involvement of proxy groups backed by Iran, and the likelihood of superpower engagement underscore the volatility of this situation. The costs of such a conflict would be far-reaching and detrimental, not just for Israel and Iran, but for global stability. Thus, international diplomacy remains crucial in averting an escalation of hostilities, echoing Henry Kissinger’s sentiment that the Middle East is a region where military solutions often exacerbate underlying problems.
