Himachal Pradesh: Congress’ Crisis Continues

The election fever is over in the hill state of Himachal Pradesh. The Congress has managed to snatch power from Bharatiya Janata Party, continuing the tradition of change of governments every five years—a tradition that began in 1990. The Himachal Pradesh elections were fascinating this time, with a difference of only 0.9% vote share between the BJP and Congress. As per many experts, wrong ticket allotment and mishandling by the BJP are the reasons for the party’s surprise defeat. Also, People say Old Pension Scheme (OPS) has been a blessing to Congress.

Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, Rani Pratibha Singh, and Mukesh Agnihotri, three veteran Himachal Pradesh Congress leaders, deserve credit for the Congress victory. Following the declaration of the results, these three names naturally surfaced, with their loyalists creating the necessary hype

Rani Pratibha Singh, a sitting Lok Sabha MP, is the wife of the late Raja Virbhadra Singh, former Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh. Pratibha Singh is also a Lok Sabha MP. Vikramaditya Singh, their son, was also elected MLA from Shimla Rural for the second time. Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu is from Hamirpur and Mukesh Agnihotri is from Una.

Following the announcement of the election results, each of the three leaders launched their efforts to become Chief Minister. Rani Pratibha Singh batted hard, citing Virbhadra Singh’s legacy. However, the Congress high command ignored her and appointed Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu as Chief Minister and Mukesh Agnihotri as Deputy Chief Minister in a bid to manage chaos.

The question is whether the Congress high command has effectively ended Virbhadra Singh’s legacy by jolting the Rani group. It is because neither Rani Pratibha nor her son was appointed Chief Minister or Deputy Chief Minister. Rani Pratibha and her son Vikramaditya are now responsible for carrying on Virbhadra Singh’s legacy. Whatever political success both (mother-son) have achieved is due to Raja Virbhadra Singh. On the other hand, Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu and Mukesh Agnihotri have achieved this success on their own, working as ground-level workers of the party.

Congress high command has effectively ended Virbhadra Singh’s legacy by jolting the Rani group. Neither Rani Pratibha nor her son was appointed Chief Minister or Deputy Chief Minister

Virbhadra Singh was the Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh for the longest time, yet his family (which includes an MP and a two-time MLA) has been sidelined. This has definitely disappointed his supporters.

The question is whether the Congress has plotted to completely demolishing Anurag Thakur’s fort by appointing Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu as Chief Minister, and Mukesh Agnihotri as Deputy Chief Minister? Both leaders are from Anurag Thakur’s Lok Sabha constituency. Sukhu is from Anurag Thakur’s home district of Hamirpur, whereas Mukesh Agnihotri is from adjoining Una. Kangra district, which has the most assembly seats (15), borders these two districts. The irony with Kangra is that, following Shanta Kumar, no prominent leader from either party has arisen so far who has national clout. Anurag Thakur, along with BJP President JP Nadda, is the national face of Himachal Pradesh. While JP Nadda stays out of direct electoral politics as a Rajya Sabha MP, Anurag Thakur contests elections.

As Congress has elected its Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister from Anurag Thakur’s Lok Sabha constituency, Anurag Thakur may have to work hard in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024. This is being said as Congress’s masterstroke. Also, Congress’ Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister can now directly influence 34 out of 68 assembly seats of Himachal (Bilaspur, Hamirpur, Una, and Kangra, Chamba Districts).

The BJP, led by former Chief Minister Jairam Thakur, won 9 of the 10 Mandi district seats in these elections. In the 2021 Lok Sabha by-election, Rani Pratibha Singh defeated the BJP candidate from this Mandi seat. The most remarkable aspect of this poll was that the BJP candidate had won the same seat by over 4 lakh votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. A by-election was later held, and the Congress’ Pratibha Singh won. More than 4 lakh votes were overturned. Jairam Thakur has now won 9 of the 10 Mandi district seats (his home district).

Mandi is also considered a hilly district, whose leaders have an impact on Kullu and Lahaul Spiti. The hilly districts of Himachal, including Shimla, Kinnaur, Sirmour, Kullu, Mandi, etc. were the legacy of Raja Virbhadra Singh. Prem Kumar Dhumal, the BJP’s longest-serving Chief Minister, hails from Hamirpur i.e. from Lower Himachal. By appointing Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu as Chief Minister and Mukesh Agnihotri as Deputy Chief Minister (both from lower Himachal), the Congress has rejected the legacy of Raja Virbhadra Singh.

What the Congress would give Rani Pratibha in the Himachal government remains to be seen. Will her son Vikramaditya be appointed as a minister? If so, how powerful will his ministry be? But there is a catch: there are numerous leaders senior to Vikramaditya; will Congress marginalize them or favour them? Congress infighting is slowly emerging, with veteran Solan district leader and former MP Dhaniram Sandilya reportedly furious with the Congress for failing to get the position of Deputy Chief Minister.

Because Congress has performed admirably in the Solan district, will Congress also appoint him as Deputy Chief Minister? If Sandilya gets the Deputy Chief Minister post, the Rani group will get very little. This could enrage the Rani group and spark a mutiny; this is no exaggeration. Another scenario to consider is what will happen if Shandilya does not receive what was expected, and the Rani Group does not receive it as well.

Despite the fact that Congress has formed the government, there is yet to be an upheaval. Such indicators are being received through the media. Chief Minister Sukhvinder Sukhu now has an enormous responsibility and a big opportunity too. Due to Congress’s factionalism, he has a large responsibility to bring everyone together. If he is successful in bringing everyone together, he has a good chance of becoming the next Virbhadra Singh of the Himachal Congress.

Will the Sukhu-Agnihotri duo cause trouble for Anurag Thakur and JP Nadda in the future? Or will Rani Pratibha and her sympathisers derail Congress’ plans? Will Congress be able to appease the rebels? Will the Old Pension Scheme be smoothly implemented, or will there be disruption? There are numerous such questions, the answers to which lay buried in the future.