When Israel launched its anti-terror operation in Gaza in 2024, many analysts were already convinced that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a larger objective in mind, which was Iran.
From Netanyahu’s perspective, Israel cannot ensure its long-term security without dismantling the Iranian regime that provides financial and military support to militant groups such as Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. These groups, backed by Tehran, have been central to regional instability.
Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons has further heightened concerns. This is not seen as a threat only to Israel, but also to Arab nations and the United States. It is in this context that the United States reportedly struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025. The current military developments appear to be reaching a decisive stage in Iran.
Pakistan: A nuclear threat
It is at this juncture that Pakistan, Iran’s immediate neighbour, enters the picture. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2026, Pakistan is the country most severely affected by terrorism. In the 2025 report, it ranked second. Having long nurtured various militant groups, Pakistan now finds itself increasingly threatened by the very forces it once supported. Pakistan is not only a victim of terrorism but also widely regarded as one of its principal sources globally.
For many countries, including India, any meaningful global fight against terrorism must involve ending Pakistan’s support for extremist groups. Groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, which have targeted India, have received support from Pakistan. Islamabad has also been accused of aligning with Hamas in Gaza against Israel. Moreover, Pakistan has a history of providing shelter to figures such as Osama bin Laden, one of America’s most wanted enemies.
Against this backdrop, a critical question arises: could Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal become the next target? Current developments suggest that this possibility cannot be ruled out. If a regime change occurs in Iran in line with Israeli interests, it could result in a pro-US, pro-Israel government in Tehran. This would leave Pakistan strategically encircled, with India on one side and Afghanistan, along with a potentially hostile new Iranian regime, on the other.
This concern has been openly acknowledged by Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, who warned that Israel’s ultimate aim in Iran is to reduce Pakistan to a “Vassal state”.
Further reinforcing these fears was a controversial statement by former Pakistani High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit. In a speech in Pakistan, he declared, “If America attacks Pakistan we have to attack India, Mumbai, New Delhi, without a second thought. We won’t leave it we’ll see what happens later.” Tensions were further escalated by a statement from the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, before the Senate Intelligence Committee. In the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, Pakistan was included among countries posing a nuclear threat to the United States, alongside Russia, China, and North Korea. This classification has significantly alarmed Pakistan’s leadership. It is partly due to these concerns that Pakistan has attempted to position itself as a mediator in the Iran crisis. Islamabad is wary of any regime change in Iran that could favour Israel and the United States.
Pakistan’s fear of Trump
Pakistan’s distrust is not limited to U.S. institutions, it extends strongly to President Donald Trump. During his first term (2017–2021), Trump adopted a confrontational stance toward Pakistan, accusing it of providing safe havens to militants fighting U.S. forces in Afghanistan. This marked a significant departure from previous U.S. administrations. His criticism soon translated into concrete actions. In 2018, Trump publicly stated that despite the United States giving Pakistan $33 billion over 15 years, it had received nothing but “lies and deceit” in return. Subsequently, he suspended $70 million in security aid to Pakistan.
Given this history, Pakistan fears that Trump, especially when combined with Tulsi Gabbard’s recent threat assessment, could take steps to neutralise its nuclear capabilities.
There is also a perception that Israel could exert pressure on the United States to act against Pakistan. From Israel’s perspective, a proposed military bloc involving Islamic nations, potentially led by Pakistan and resembling NATO, could pose a strategic threat. When combined with Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, this becomes an even greater concern. Pakistan’s distrust of the United States was also evident in remarks by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif during a parliamentary session. He stated that after serving U.S. interests in Afghanistan, Pakistan was “used like toilet paper and then discarded.”
Today, Pakistan is in a fragile economic condition. The country is grappling with inflation, fuel shortages, and rising unemployment. Its survival is heavily dependent on assistance from the IMF.
This economic weakness significantly limits Pakistan’s ability to respond to any potential U.S.–Israel actions. China, too, is unlikely to intervene decisively, as seen in its limited role in crises involving Iran and Venezuela. At the same time, Pakistan faces strategic pressure from multiple fronts, including India, Afghanistan, and potentially Iran. This further compounds its vulnerabilities. Given these factors, the possibility of action against Pakistan cannot be dismissed.
