October 7, 2023! One of the darkest chapters in the geopolitical history of West Asia. A surprise attack by Hamas on Israel, significantly altered the security landscape of the region. Three years later, the West Asian latitude remains more deeply fragmented than ever. Conflict soars like a wildfire, fuelled by the US/Israel and Iran war. Alliances remain fractured with US ambition of normalising ties between Israel and the Arab club, via the Abraham Accords reaching a deadlock.
Meanwhile, regional security, peace and a permanent solution to the historical conflict has been entangled in a gridlock. Most importantly, civilian safety, maritime security are dwindling with war having steep global repercussions on energy security, supply chains and causing catastrophic impact on human lives. Three years and after, the solution to the West Asia crisis is deeply jeopardised amidst Israel not able to seal its ultimate national security by uprooting non-state actors, US unable to establish its hegemony and Iran losing its strong proxy network across Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.
The Hamas attack on Israel and the aftermath
On October 7, 2023 Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel and killed more than 1200 people and took hostage nearly 250 people. In retaliation, Israel escalated an all-out war against Hamas in Gaza. Tel Aviv targeted secret tunnels & other Hamas infrastructure networks across the Gaza strip, even miles beneath the ground level. Today, Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and other non-state proxy actors who attacked Tel Aviv as a part of the Israel-Hamas conflict stand deeply fractured. Their establishments & strongholds have been severely damaged.
However, was Israel able to completely uproot the non-state actors? The answer is an enigma. Despite causing severe damage to their roots, these proxy actors sustain themselves and aim to cause a serious security threat to West Asia. However, post the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the security architecture of West Asia remains deeply fractured and fragile, with escalating conflict. The Abraham Accords dream of Washington DC remains elusive.
On the other hand, Gaza strip has turned into an uninhabitable landmass with more than 70,000 deaths and lakhs injured. However, the two-state solution doesn’t seem to take a practical shape, as Hamas and non-state actors continue to illegitimately operate in the region and Israel demands comprehensive sovereignty, security throughout the territory against the non-state proxies.
US-Iran war fuels crisis; Alters the security dynamics of West Asia
As Israel-Hamas war soared with devastating impact and no concrete peace & solution, the US-Iran conflict escalated in February 2026, fuelled further momentum and decisively altered the regional security dynamics. It ruptured the hitherto fragile West Asia more than ever with unanticipated regional repercussions. The US attack on Iran and the death of top officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) including the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the IRGC retaliation on US and its bases across the region, further escalated the conflict.
Tehran has launched massive strikes on US bases, embassies across West Asia. It has launched attacks on US partners and allies in West Asia. Energy infrastructures, business establishments, US consulates, airports, military bases of the Pentagon and other critical infrastructures have been targeted in the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia. This has caused significant damage to the economy, civilian safety and security of the respective countries. This also further deepened the rift between Iran and the Arab world. On the other hand, peace efforts among Israel and the Arab countries also hit a deadlock.
Most importantly, the strategic maritime chokepoint, Strait of Hormuz was weaponised by the US & Iran, by escalating naval blockade, attack on commercial vessels and causing threat to global seafarers safety. By jeopardising the global oil lifeline, the entire energy security network was disrupted, thus spiking global repercussions.
Israel on high-alert as intelligence hints Hamas attack on third anniversary
On the third anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, Tel Aviv remains on high-alert, as intelligence inputs hint another attack by Hamas. Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to heighten its alert and be prepared for any possible scenario in Gaza ahead of October 7. He said that Hamas aims to carry out an attack on the Israeli soldiers stationed in Gaza. He also added that the IDF should be prepared for worst scenarios. The Israeli Defence Minister also warned that, if Israeli forces are attacked Hamas & Gaza will pay a heavy price. A similar warning was issued by Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well.
Fractured West Asia fuelling global repercussions; Peace efforts repeatedly foiled
Three years later, the West Asian landscape remains more fragmented and destructed than ever. The conflict confined to Israel-Hamas & Iran with US footprint has spilled over to countries across the region and has inflicted catastrophic effects on civilian safety, economic security and larger geopolitical relations. On the other hand, weaponisation of energy, trade and maritime routes have had cascading effects on the global energy security and economy.
Peace efforts remain elusive and have evidently hit a deadlock. Repeated negotiations and intense diplomatic manoeuvres have not yielded any conclusive deal. The warring parties escalate conflict, despite suffering proportionate setbacks and self-damage. The theocratic regime in Iran and its proxies in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon and other regions, the US-Israel all-weather alliance and the distinctively disintegrated Arab world with the UAE-Saudi rift, tends to further fuel the geopolitical wildfire. Three years and later, with continuous & rigorous wars, the security architecture of West Asia remains deeply jeopardised with states in stalemate, bloc politics in rift and peace being a mere paper over steep fissures!
