On the evening of December 4, as President Vladimir Putin landed in New Delhi, his hand expressions and trademark subtle smile, while disembarking from his plane, could not hide the beaming joy and happiness in his eyes when he realised that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was himself waiting in the tarmac to receive his ‘friend’, and India’s ‘friend’. Their handshake and friendly embrace sent out a strong signal to the West, that India’s strategic autonomy and time-tested friendship with Russia, remains sacrosanct. No amount of tariff threats or demeaning and acrimonious statements from Western lawmakers could harm it.
India-Russia Annual Summit is a routine affair. However, this visit of President Putin was far more profound than many of the previous ones. It was momentous for two specific reasons. Firstly, it vindicated how things have remained the same even when fundamental shifts have taken place for these two countries and their destinies. Today, India is the fourth largest economy of the world, on course to becoming the third, while Russia, which has demonstrated impressive resilience to stand tall in spite of relentless economic sanctions from the West, has a GDP which is almost half of that of India.
For decades since India’s Independence, a struggling nation trying to emerge from the scars of colonial torment, was supported by the Soviet Union, Russia in her former avatar, in every way possible. From building industrial bases to military empowerment with cutting-edge technologies to fuelling India’s space missions to supporting India diplomatically in the global arena, the Kremlin was always there. Today, that struggling nation has almost twice the GDP of Russia. And yet, the friendship remains as it was, and much beyond a Government-to-Government relation. It has a deep people-to-people connect that is beyond any orchestration.
The second reason why this visit is important is because the world is witnessing a fundamental shift, with Global South firmly having started to assert itself against the global multilateral institutional framework that remains heavily skewed in favour of Western Europe and American interests. Russia perhaps remains an outlier of a First World nation that is increasingly becoming a symbol of Global South battle against perceived ‘expansionist’ approach of the West.
The war in Ukraine would perhaps not have happened had it not been for the expansionist mindset of NATO, or Cold-War hangover of Western policymakers that still love to project Russia as an ‘adversary’ instead of allowing it to be an equal stakeholder in the global economic affairs. India, in many ways, has been a victim of the same kind of skewed narrative shaping by the West, which refuses to accept the rise of a former colony in her own terms.
However, what most in the West tend to forget is the fact that both India and Russia are civilisational nation states, with a timeless repository of culture, ethos, traditions, philosophy and value systems that cannot be erased. And therefore, through the innumerable agreements signed this time, shaping the pivot for deeper economic cooperation, the fundamental message being sent out by India in her embrace of Russia, is that ‘We will not let you down’. Today Russia needs India as much as India needed Russia during her formative years, and India is there to support.
It is pretty clear that threats of sanctions as weapons of coercion, are way past their shelf life now. India may still occasionally balance its oil procurement from Russia, depending upon which companies are under sanctions, but on the larger spectrum of things, the Indo-Russian canvas of economic exchanges may potentially witness a quantum leap in the times to come.
Even though many were expecting some big-ticket announcements of defence deals, it eventually became evident that progress on those issues will be kept firmly confidential and would be unwrapped in a calibrated manner. With both countries having firmed up measures to increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030, it is expected both sides are keen to explore newer avenues to enhance economic cooperations. While defence cooperation and oil trade are a given, here too one may witness a fundamental shift with Russia showing extreme keenness in sharing critical technologies and allowing India to locally produce critical weapon systems such as S-400 and Su-57.
For Russia, India’s impressive industrial manufacturing base can easily facilitate local production. While the Kremlin’s own military industrial complex remains engaged in sustaining supplies for the Ukraine conflict, India may emerge as a key production partner for Russia to develop weapons and sell to third parties.
Further, away from much public glare, Russia has finalised plans to invest the accumulated cash in rupee currency in the Indian stock markets through mutual funds. The Rupee-Ruble exchange mechanism facilitates non-Dollar trade, resulting in huge Russian cash pile-up in their accounts in India. This cash in rupee denomination, running into potentially lakhs of crores of rupees, cannot be converted into dollars due to sanctions. A part of that may now be used to invest in Indian stock markets, especially in Nifty 50 through the Mutual Fund route that may be a win-win situation for both nations. This increases liquidity in the Indian bourses while Russian investors get an opportunity to invest in one of the biggest stock markets of the world.
Another area where some positive movements have been witnessed is that of passenger aircraft manufacturing. India continues to be one of the biggest markets for aviation with the demand of civilian aircrafts going to sky-rocket as more Indians opt to fly and the Government facilitates development of airports in smaller cities and towns.
For India too, it is a win-win as joint production with Russia would give a major kickstart to India’s civilian aerospace sector. Additionally, diamond imports from Russia, is one area which has witnessed considerable surge in activities, and holds great promise.
With 16 Inter-Governmental Agreements having been signed between India and Russia during President Putin’s visit, starting from continued defence cooperation to fast-tracking of the Free Trade Agreement Framework, to enhanced labour mobility that would ensure easier access to Indian skilled manpower to work in resource-rich but manpower-deficient Russian mining and manufacturing sector, along with agreements to further enhance connectivity mechanisms through INSTC and Chennai-Vladivostok maritime routes, as well as deeper cooperation in sectors like shipbuilding, fertilizer production and even in culture, this visit essentially sets the framework for more enhanced BRICS cooperation. It also provides more impetus to Global South countries to believe that a non-Western economic framework is quite possible.
Russia has survived for decades in spite of stiff Western sanctions. Among many quarters of Global South Russia’s defiance of NATO and resistance to its mindless expansion has become a symbol of Global South’s push-back against perceived Western hegemony. PM Modi’s perceptive approach towards maintaining India’s strategic autonomy, protecting the interests of crores of domestic farmers by defying Western threats on oil procurement from Russia, and refusing to bow to American pressure on trade deals has earned India respect among Global South nations. Eventually, both Russia and India have not just survived but have thrived and have decided to join hands to further expand cooperation.
In 2026, President Putin is expected to visit India again during the BRICS Summit under Indian Presidency, a year when the G20 Summit would take place in the US. One should not be surprised if BRICS 2026 gains more traction and witnesses renewed interest from Africa to Asian states to join it.
