After a successful visit to Japan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in China for the SCO Heads of State Summit. In the backdrop of Trump’s additional tariffs against India effective from August 27th, Indian diplomacy is preparing itself for the new groupings that meets immediate and long-term national objectives. There is a saying, ‘politics makes strange bedfellows’. The current turbulent geopolitics is making even more dramatic alliances and alignments. The world at large keenly observes the SCO Summit because there is a whisper about Russia-India-China (RIC) alliance being discussed on the sidelines of the event.
The proposed RIC alliance has been in the making from the late 1990s. President Putin has been actively advocating it for some time as a counterweight to the US hegemony. India and Russia share a special relationship right from the era of Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship of 1971 and later through Treaty of Friendship between India and Russian Federation of 1993. India has continued to buy Russian oil in spite of so-called sanctions by the West against Russia. The US under Trump 2.0 administration has accused India of supporting Russian economy and its war causes by buying oil from it in large quantities. Thus, India is being made a fall guy in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by the Trump administration.
India and China have shared a series of agreements and treaties to maintain peace and tranquility between the two Asian giants. Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination was signed in the year 2012. PM Modi took extra efforts to further improve the relations with China, right from his first term. China is India’s second largest trading partner after the US, though there is massive trade deficit for India. India and China relations have gone through a turbulent phase in the last five years, after the violent Galwan clash in Eastern Ladakh in June 2020. It was only in October last year that the process of disengagement of troops commenced between the two nations. Now, China has firmly opposed American tariffs against India.
But the most unanticipated change came after Operation Sindoor. India launched Operation Sindoor against Pakistan to avenge the heinous Pahalgam terror attack of April 22nd. India’s calibrated punitive action brought Pakistan to its knees and it sought ceasefire with India on May 10th, when most of its military airfields were rendered unusable by India’s aerial strikes. However, President Trump claimed that he had brokered ceasefire between India and Pakistan. India staunchly denied any such claim and thus President Trump suddenly became anti-India. The sustained efforts of the last 20 years to bring India and US to the level of strategic partnership was at once forgotten.
Suddenly Pakistan became the ‘favourite’ of the US administration. President Trump even did the unthinkable by inviting Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir for lunch at the White House on June 18th. Amidst the ongoing trade talks between India and the US, President Trump has imposed 25%+25% tariff against India, one of the highest in the world. Such stiff tariffs against the largest trading partner India defies all conventional logic. India therefore has stood firm to this tyranny, which American Vice President has called “aggressive economic leverage” to pressure Russia for halting its attacks on Ukraine.
Against this backdrop, first we had the visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India on August 18-19. Officially the boundary dispute was discussed but the importance of the visit can be gauged by his interaction with PM Modi. Setting the stage for interaction with Chinese President Xi Jinping during SCO Tianjin Summit. This meeting has set another opportunity to bring Indo-China relations to near normalcy soon. President Putin understands that the close economic ties between India and Russia has not been taken kindly by President Trump. He has offered Russian markets to India in order to compensate the export losses. But President Putin knows very well that the US, particularly President Trump listens from a position of strength.
The statistics of the three major powers getting together are staggering. The total population of India, China and Russia is 2.96 billion, which makes it about 37% of the total world population. All three are nuclear power and Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council. All three are also the founder members of BRICS and the US views this grouping as a threat to its dollar-dominated economy. Brazil has also been imposed stiff tariffs by President Trump and thus BRICS has the added responsibility of dealing with the US in a more focused manner.
Considering our past experience with China, India may have to tread more carefully. India has to look at both its immediate and long-term interests. In the immediate term, India can insist on more exports to China to reduce the trade deficit, besides exploring new markets. India should continue to engage with China on border talks. India has to be firm with China, as far as its active role in supporting Pakistan during Operation Sindoor is concerned. However, India has conveyed its ‘new normal’ against terrorism and it is up to China to make Pakistan understand the implications.
In the near future, two friction points between India and China are likely. One is China’s stated aim of integrating Taiwan. President Xi Jinping would like to achieve this milestone under his leadership and may happen earlier than originally planned. The second friction may be over anointing the next Dalai Lama by China and here India’s position will be tested, considering that Tibetan government in exile functions from Dharamshala, India. India will be conscious of such predicaments. The diplomacy on both the sides would have to iron out their differences.
India also knows that in the RIC alliance China can be in the lead position. Russia is bogged down in a prolonged war with Ukraine and now it is depending on China for the economic and military leverage. China has set sights to become the next superpower and thus it would be too happy to have India on board to fulfill its ambitions. India aspires to be the natural leader of the Global South and there would be conflict of interest with China in all the contested land and maritime disputes. Yet as the past has shown, working the relationship which is mutually beneficial is feasible for both India and China.
Given the uncertainties in the geopolitics, RIC alliance appears a workable short-term solution to an unpredictable US under President Trump. At the same time, India should utilize the connect with Indian diaspora and other support base in the US for behind the scenes diplomacy. The early resolution of Russia-Ukraine war is going to be critical for Indian strategic interests. The US should also know that it needs India to checkmate China in the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea in the long run. India should therefore, continue to work towards upholding global peace, security and stability in the world.
