If the Indian elite looks up and away from its recent confrontation with Pakistan, it will find an extraordinary churn unfolding in world politics. Having drawn clear red lines against Pakistan-backed terrorism, Delhi must continue to reinforce its intelligence and military capabilities to enforce those red lines. But there is a world beyond Pakistan that demands greater Indian attention. The changes unfolding in the world, even as we reflect on the Pahalgam terror attack and India’s response to it, will have a great bearing on India’s long-term prospects for peace and prosperity.
When Indian airstrikes on Pakistan-based terror infrastructure and their consequences began to play out in the middle of last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed up in Moscow for yet another celebration of his special partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As the Indian and Pakistani armed forces duked it out with Russian and Chinese weapons respectively and proclaimed how good these systems were, Putin and Xi declared themselves “friends of steel” and promised to intensify their political, economic and technological partnership. Gathered to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War II, Putin and Xi talked of their commitment to building a “post-American” order.
And then some. Even as they denounced America’s “dual containment” of China and Russia, Xi and Putin set out immediately to cut deals with the United States. Understanding this triangular great power dynamic is not for the faint-hearted. Or for those who see the world through the simple lens of “friends”, “foes” and happy endings, Bollywood style, with the good guys beating the hell out of the bad guys.
By the time Delhi and Rawalpindi stumbled towards a cessation of fire over the weekend, American and Chinese delegations were out in Geneva negotiating a “ceasefire” in their trade war. By the time the Indian and Pakistani military establishments agreed to silence the guns, US and Chinese leaders had announced a sweeping agreement to bring down the massive tariffs they had unveiled earlier this year. The two sides will now negotiate a comprehensive “commercial peace” between the world’s two largest economies with an annual bilateral goods trade of $600 billion.
Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Putin has spent quite some time with Steve Witkoff, the US president’s golfing buddy and special envoy. Some diplomatic observers say Witkoff had more face time with Putin than any other leader in the world, including China’s Xi. Following Washington’s push for peace between Moscow and Kyiv, Russia-Ukraine talks are scheduled this week in Istanbul.
Turkey, whose drones showed up in the India-Pakistan confrontation, had also supplied them to Ukraine in the war against Russia. Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has a good working relationship with Putin and has been at the centre of initiatives for peace between Moscow and Kyiv.
As speculation mounts on the participation of Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky at the Istanbul talks this Thursday, (15th May 2025) Trump, in typical fashion, has sought to insert himself into these talks. Trump, who arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday on a trip that will also include Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, wants to join the Istanbul talks. “Don’t underestimate Thursday,” Trump declared as he headed to the Gulf.
Before we get to Trump’s Arabian tour — which will say a lot about his maverick diplomatic style — it is important to note that the Europeans are scrambling to secure a place for themselves at the table. Unnerved by Trump’s “backstabbing” of America’s NATO allies in seeking a direct deal with Putin, the Europeans are now trying to become organised to prevent the US and Russia from imposing a peace on their homelands.
As in his first term, Trump’s first foreign outing is to the Arab Gulf. In his “magic carpet tour” of the Arabian Peninsula, money (a lot of it) will be on Trump’s mind. The US President hopes to raise over $2 trillion in investments, with Saudi Arabia expected to contribute $1 trillion in arms deals and commercial agreements, the UAE pledging $1.4 trillion over the next decade, and Qatar committing hundreds of millions. These investments are being presented by the White House as a big victory for the “America First” agenda, promising job creation and industrial growth.
Trump is accused of having more than American national interest on his agenda. Critics point to the Trump family’s business ventures in the region — including Eric Trump’s $5.5 billion Qatari golf project and residential developments in Saudi Arabia. In the first term, it was Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner who was shaping Washington’s Middle East policy even while he was accused of cutting sweetheart deals with the Gulf kingdoms.
Trump is also under attack at home for planning to accept Qatar’s gift of an ultra-luxury Boeing jumbo jet (747-8), estimated to cost around $400 million. It will be outfitted as Air Force One to ferry the President around. After he retires in January 2029, the plane is expected to go to the Trump Library. Many in India criticise Trump’s foreign policy for being “transactional”; they might be underestimating how thoroughly transactional it is. And how easily Trump blurs the lines between personal business and state business.
The Gulf kingdoms have figured this out. They pay less attention to Trump’s pronouncements and focus on pursuing their interests — not through high-minded policy arguments but by their own transactional diplomacy. But if you think the Gulf Arabs now “own” Trump, think again. Even as he taps into the Gulf wallets, he is reaching out for a deal with Tehran. As he flew into Saudi Arabia, his negotiators were wrapping up the fourth round of talks with Iran, on a range of issues, including Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme. Engagement with Iran, in fact, expands Trump’s leverage with the Arabs, who want to see the US deter Iran and counter its regional influence.
Tehran, notwithstanding its relentless rhetoric against the US hegemony, is as eager as Moscow and Beijing to cut bilateral deals with Trump. Anxiously watching Trump’s Iran outreach is Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, who has visited the White House twice this year. Long used to pushing Washington against Iran, Israel is finding it hard to sell the old anti-Tehran line to Trump. That the US President is skipping Israel during his Middle East tour this week, some argue, points to the cooling of ties, if temporary, between Trump and Netanyahu.
As we look beyond Pakistan, we see a world in flux. None of the traditional ideological and political signposts can explain the nature of its evolution. Simplistic narratives are of little use to India in dealing with this turbulent world. Domain knowledge and negotiating skills are critical in navigating the current global complexities. The last thing Delhi should want to see now is the undermining of its professional diplomatic corps.
