US-China Trade War: Who poses a bigger threat?
July 20, 2025
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Home Politics

US-China Trade War: Who poses a bigger threat?

In the past, the US has been a big bully interfering in the domestic affairs of other countries. For Bharat, it is China which is more of a threat both in terms of military as well as diplomacy

by Balbir Punj
Apr 14, 2025, 07:30 pm IST
in Politics, Bharat, Opinion
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Recently, US President Donald Trump gave another rude surprise to the world, already in shock from his earlier unprecedented moves. He backed down on his tariffs on most nations for 90 days but raised the tax rate on Chinese imports to 125 per cent.

Since ascending to power in his second term, President Trump has made a series of decisions in quick succession, with far-reaching consequences, shaking and shocking the world and sending global markets into a tailspin. He is undoubtedly in a buoyant mood, albeit his detractors are nonplussed, calling him a bull in a China shop, a narcissistic, egoist, a clown or simply mad.

However, there is a method to Trump’s madness. His resolves undoubtedly have grave implications for the US and the rest of the world but aren’t reckless, impulsive, or a result of some knee-jerk reaction. They are a part of a well-laid plan. Shorn of verbosity, his strategy has three aims – protect white supremacy in the US, contain China at all costs and reclaim America’s position as a solitary superpower in the world. Succinctly put, he is trying to turn the clock back.

A significant portion of America’s population—particularly non-Hispanic whites (NHW)—supports Trump’s protectionist and anti-immigration policies. This section- the lynchpin of American society – sees a threat to its identity, culture, and existence. In 1960, NHWs comprised over 85 per cent of the US population. By 2020, this number had fallen to around 58 per cent, meaning they now face the real possibility of becoming a minority.

Preventing Internal War

Today, the US society is highly polarised— on a political, ideological and racial basis. The shifting demography is capable of pushing the US towards the brink of a devastating civil war—something Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda aims to avert. Don’t forget that 33 crore Americans have between 40 and 50 crore firearms. The country fought a civil war on the slavery issue in 1861, lasting for four years, that had claimed 620,000 to 850,000 lives.

After the Second World War (1939–1945), America emerged as the world’s most dominant economic and military power. It was a bipolar world, with the Soviet Union heading the other pole. Battle lines and ideological boundaries were clearly drawn. One was a vibrant symbol of a competitive market economy and individual rights; the other, the state representing the proletariat, was supreme. There were hardly any grey areas. The US dollar has held sway as the global reserve currency in the free world, bestowing Washington with enormous global and international privileges.

Threat Emanating from China

The US has more than 750 military bases in over 80 countries. In short, America has been setting the global agenda for the past eight decades. But a new challenger has emerged—Communist-authoritarian China—posing a direct threat to democratic American supremacy.

Unlike the erstwhile Soviet Union, which could be boxed as a Communist country, China is a hybrid animal that defies all known ideological models and moulds. Its political structure is based on one-party Communist authoritarianism, while its economy, since 1978, has been driven by a grotesque and distorted version of capitalism. Its political system offers no space for democracy, human rights, or dissent. In a typical Stalinist mould, all sorts of dissent are dealt a heavy hand. Those asking any inconvenient questions disappear without a trace.

The Chinese economy operates on a capitalist model reminiscent of the Victorian era, which Charles Dickens captured in his novels, where the ruthless exploitation of vulnerable labour formed the foundation of European capitalism. Human labour in China has been reduced to a machine-like status, transforming the country into the world’s cheapest manufacturing hub.

The ‘Communist’ country has unabashed imperialistic ambitions. It has been trying to expand on all sides. It swallowed Tibet decades ago, has border disputes with 20 countries, including Bharat, and routinely stakes absurd claims over internationally recognised sea routes.

Role of the US in China’s Rise

Ironically, the United States paved the way for China’s economic explosion. In 1999, the US signed a bilateral trade agreement with China, and by 2001, with strong backing from Washington, China was granted membership in the World Trade Organisation (WTO). That single move turned China into the world’s most cost-effective manufacturing hub—unleashing decades of breakneck growth. Trump is trying to undo that.

The numbers tell the story vividly. In 2000, according to World Bank data, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at roughly $1.2 trillion, with a per capita income of about $959. In stark contrast, the United States had a GDP of approximately $10.3 trillion and a per capita income exceeding $36,000. At that time, China’s economy was barely 12 per cent the size of America’s.

Fast forward 25 years. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by 2025, China’s projected GDP is about $19.5 trillion, and its per capita income is expected to rise to around $14,000. Meanwhile, the U.S. GDP will be approximately $30 trillion, with a per capita income nearing $90,000. That means China’s economy would have grown more than 16-fold and now accounts for nearly 65 per cent of the U.S. economy in absolute terms—an extraordinary leap for a country once regarded as a third-world agrarian state.

China now has an annual trade surplus that now exceeds $1 trillion. While America’s trade deficit with China has crossed a staggering $295 billion, Bharat is not far behind. Its trade imbalance with China now hovers around $100 billion, raising serious strategic and economic concerns for both democracies. In 1985, Bharat and China had nearly equal per capita incomes (around $300), yet today, China’s economy is five times the size of Bharat. With a GDP of $4 trillion and per capita income of $2,940, Bharat is the world’s fifth-largest economy. Why Bharat lags behind while China leapfrogged on the growth induces is a story for another day.

Hypocrisy of American Foreign Policy

If China has strong imperialistic ambitions, it shamelessly buys and browbeats weaker nations. America too has been a bully, in the role of a wayward world policeman, with its copybook of rules, interpreted at whim or changed at will. It attacked Vietnam in 1955 under the pretext of moral responsibility, but that war ended 20 years later in American defeat, with an estimated death toll of over three million. In 1971, during the genocidal campaign carried out by West Pakistan (now Pakistan) against Hindus and Buddhists in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), where thousands of women were raped, America deployed its aircraft carrier Enterprise in the Bay of Bengal in support of Pakistan.

In pursuit of its interests, America has maintained cordial relations with every Pakistani military dictator. From 1979 to 1989, to expel the Soviet Union from Afghanistan, the US—supplied arms to the Mujahideen, calling for “Jihad” against the “infidels.” After the Afghan civil war, these Mujahideen formed the Taliban. When it was discovered that the mastermind of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Osama bin Laden, was being sheltered in Afghanistan by the Taliban, America launched an assault and occupied the country for 20 years. But in 2021, to cover up its failed foreign policy, it made a deal with the same Taliban and withdrew. Before this, in 2003, under the pretext of destroying “weapons of mass destruction,” America invaded Iraq, killed thousands of innocent civilians, and executed dictator Saddam Hussein.

America’s Democratic Correctives

American foreign policy, a byword for double standards—like its “good Taliban, bad Taliban” narrative—has continued to fuel global crises, particularly the menace of Islamic extremism and terrorism. Yet, America’s key redeeming feature remains its democratic character. Like any other democracy, it allows for loud and open dissent against immorality and inhumanity and even corrects its mistakes when necessary. The policy corrections made years later regarding Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are evidence of this. Even Trump’s recent policies are being contested.

Some rational minds may still ask why the world (including Bharat) is wary of China’s economic ascent and growing military muscle. After all, isn’t America also a superpower that has, for decades, meddled in the affairs of other nations under the pretext of promoting democracy and human rights? Isn’t it true that Washington and Beijing are engaged in a fierce geopolitical chess game, each attempting to mould the world order in their ideological image, cloaking their strategic ambitions in the language of morality and principle?

Though not entirely unfounded, this line of reasoning misses a critical truth: while both nations wield influence, the essential nature of their governance systems—and their openness to dissent, correction, and reform—are worlds apart.

China is an opaque, top-down, authoritarian regime ruled by a single party (or a caucus) that tolerates no opposition and allows no institutional dissent. President Xi Jinping is not merely a leader but a lifetime emperor in all but name. There are no free elections, independent judiciary, or civil liberties. No journalist, academic, or citizen can question Xi Jinping without risking disappearance, imprisonment, or worse. It is a regime built on the pillars of surveillance, fear, and brutal efficiency.

In contrast, despite its flaws, contradictions, and historical injustices, America is still a functioning democracy. Its President remains accountable to the Constitution, the courts, the media, and the public, no matter how powerful or controversial. Donald Trump, for instance, has faced intense scrutiny from opposition parties and within his ranks, from courts, civil society, and the press. He is subject to term limits, judicial oversight, electoral rejection, and the rule of law. However strained, American institutions still possess the power to challenge, correct, and even oust leaders who stray too far from democratic norms.

This distinction is not trivial—it is why China’s rise is fundamentally more dangerous than America’s dominance. A powerful, unaccountable, expansionist regime—armed with a massive surveillance state, military-industrial complex, and imperial ambitions—is a far greater long-term threat to Bharat’s sovereignty and global democratic stability than a flawed but self-correcting democracy.

China’s ambitions are not hidden; they are etched into state policy. From the Belt and Road Initiative to its aggressive military posturing in the South China Sea, from its border provocations with Bharat to its debt-trap diplomacy in Africa and Asia, China seeks not partnership but submission. Unlike democratic nations where leaders can be voted out, Beijing’s agenda is driven by a long-term, centralised vision immune to public backlash or electoral defeat.

Therefore, the question is not whether America is innocent and China guilty—it is about which system allows for correction, dialogue, and resistance and which system silences all three. And by that measure, the threat from Beijing is not just geopolitical—it is civilisational. For Bharat, a proud democracy rooted in pluralism and liberty, the stakes could not be higher.

Topics: Donald TrumpInternational Monetary FundUS-China trade warAmerica’s Democratic
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