US President Donald Trump has said that he would leave Bangladesh to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The response by Trump was during a joint briefing by him and Prime Minister Modi who was on a two-day visit to the United States.
Trump was asked for his take on the possible role of a deep state in Bangladesh which eventually led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina and the nation descending into chaos. He however sidestepped the question on the deep state and said, “ I will leave Bangladesh to PM Modi.”
The ongoing chaos in Bangladesh is particularly worrying for Bharat as they are our immediate neighbours. The persecution of Hindus and other religious minorities and the manner in which Islamists have taken over the country are worrying signs since it threatens the security situation in India, especially in West Bengal and the northeastern states.
Trump putting the ball in India’s court is a good sign, since now New Delhi gets to decide on how to deal with Bangladesh and restore peace, tranquility and sense in that country. Trump’s statement can also be viewed as a message New Delhi will take the call and deal with the situation and there would be no interference from the United States on the issue.
How should Bharat deal with Bangladesh
The fall of the Sheikh Hasina government presented India with challenges that were both strategic and diplomatic in nature. India has always maintained that it wants a peaceful situation and restore normalcy in Bangladesh.
However this would take time as New Delhi carefully navigates through the developments in Bangladesh. One may have expected swift action, but experts say that such things take time, but everything will eventually fall in place. Moreover the swiftness with how things unfolded in Bangladesh, everyone was caught off guard. Hence there would be a lot to weigh in before the situation is normalised.
On the brighter side, both sides are talking. India’s foreign secretary Vikram Misri had even visited Dhaka and held talks with his counterparts. New Delhi is also reaching out to the BNP leadership, which is most likely to form the government once the elections are held.
Currently the situation is quite complex with many players such as Pakistan and China entering Bangladesh. China is a key player in the defence sector and it has also extended a considerable amount of loan to Dhaka. Pakistan on the other hand is trying to control Dhaka with the sole intention of hurting India.
Now with the ball being in New Delhi’s court, the approach to the crisis in Dhaka will be both strategic and adaptable. India is currently not looking to arm twist Bangladesh with military might as this could destabilise the entire region and in doing so many more players will enter the scene.
More engagement
When tensions escalated along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, at one point in time, it looked like a hopeless situation. The two countries had completely stopped talking. However over the months, diplomatic and military channels were opened up and after much deliberations, tensions de-escalated. This even led to a bilateral between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the margins of the 16th BRICS Summit.
While relations have strained between India and Bangladesh, the positive is that the two countries continue to engage. If at all the caretaker government or the party that may get eventually elected to power turns out to be less friendly, India will convey its red lines and ensure that its interests are safeguarded.
While reaching out to both the interim government as well as the BNP, New Delhi has also been pressing Dhaka to prevent violence against Awami League leaders. India has also been vocal about the violence against the Hindus and engages Bangladesh on a daily basis to put an end to the madness.
More steps
The illegal immigration of Bangladeshis into India has been an irritant for decades. There are over 2 crore such illegal migrants in the country. One strong message that India could send to Bangladesh is by commencing a mass deportation programme.
Bangladesh is already facing an economic crisis and the illegal immigrants being sent back in such large numbers will put immense stress on the system. This could however be a bargaining chip to make the Bangladesh government to come to the table and find a solution.
New Delhi can also play the wait and watch game. Not all is hunky dory on the political front in Bangladesh. Feelers are trickling in about a major rift between the caretaker government and the BNP over the issue of elections. There are also reports that suggest that the Awami League and the BNP cadres are becoming slightly united against Yunus as they feel he is trying to change the Constitution so that he could not have elections. This rift is something that is in India’s favour and New Delhi could capitalise on this and play the negotiator.
India has been averse to the idea of a BNP government in power. Ties were nothing to speak about when the BNP ruled between 1991 and 1996 and again between 2001 and 2006. This was largely over the BNP being complicit in the North East rebels receiving training and arms for Pakistan’s ISI. The BNP had allowed the use of Bangladesh soil for this. Further the close ties that the BNP shared with the Jamaat-e-Islami was also an irritant for New Delhi.
However the Modi sarkar could revisit 2014. Since then the BNP has made numerous attempts to make amends with India. This could be used as a positive since the BNP today is looking for a strong partner to ensure that the elections are held.
India could also woo the London based Tarique Zia, the son of BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia. Although he is close to the ISI, sense could be driven into his head that his country as well his standing would be better if ties are good with India. If the BNP returns to power, Zia would be the Prime Minister and hence India will woo him more aggressively.
The case of Sri Lanka is a classic one. The island nation had a leadership that was leaning more to China. However New Delhi waited and watched and once the leadership was thrown out, it boosted the current Sri Lankan President Anura Kumari Dissanakaye.
It boils down to money
Ultimately it would all come down to economics. India can make several more lucrative trade deals with Bangladesh. The people of Bangladesh have had saner governments when compared to Pakistan. Hence for the people of Bangladesh, money does matter over radical ideology and no government can ignore that.
India and Bangladesh are major trading partners and New Delhi should continue to boost that. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trading partner. India is the second biggest export partner accounting for 12 per cent of the total exports to Bangladesh. The total trade turnover in 2024 touched $12.90 billion.
Some of the major exports from India to to Bangladesh include cotton yarn, engineering goods, petroleum products and organic and inorganic chemicals. The major imports by India from Bangladesh include, apparel, clothing accessories, vegetables textile fibres, paper yarn, woven fabrics of paper yarn etc.
Further India is also a major destination for Bangladeshi students. India offers quality education when compared to Bangladesh. This is something that can be boosted further. If India refuses to entertain the students, it would hit the country hard as the future generation would be denied of quality education.
