The suspense finally came to an end on January 6, and Justin Trudeau, under whom ties with Bharat had strained, stepped in as the Prime Minister of Canada. He would remain in office, however, until a replacement is found.
The resignation came at a time when there were heightened tensions between Canada and Bharat owing to his reckless allegations and backing of pro-Khalistan elements. He had accused New Delhi of orchestrating the killing of Khalistan terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil. The Canadian authorities found no evidence to back Trudeau’s claim, and this led to relations with Bharat souring.
Now that Trudeau is out of the picture, it remains to be seen how relations with New Delhi will shape in the days to come.
Diplomacy and policy
For ties with New Delhi to improve a lot would depend on Trudeau’s successor. The Liberal Party has yet to elect a new leader. The big question is whether the new leader would adopt a new approach or continue with Trudeau’s critical stance on Bharat.
The new leader will need to do a balancing act and iron out differences with Bharat. Further, it would be interesting to see how the new leader will handle the Nijjar issue, which is a major bone of contention between the two countries.
Officials, however, point out that they would wait and watch for the developments to unfold. There is so much confusion in Canada at the moment following the resignation of Trudeau. Once a new leader is appointed, he or she would not only have to deal with New Delhi but also with Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated on January 20. He has threatened tariffs on Canada, and the new leader would find it a big challenge to deal with that.
However, in New Delhi, many feel that the Liberal Party may not return to power. The Conservative Party is leading all the polls, and there is a good chance that they will be in the seat of power once elections are held.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has been critical of how Trudeau handled ties with New Delhi. He is most likely to give priority to trade and economic collaboration with India. However, the first thing he is likely to do is de-escalate tensions between the two countries.
Whoever comes to power in Canada will have to handle the trade ties with New Delhi well. Although there were problems galore when Trudeau was in power, the Canada-India trade flourished and reached $8.4 billion by the end of the 2024 fiscal year. Any potential shift by a new leader could disrupt these ties. However, the experts are of the view that there would be no shift on this front, irrespective of who is in power.
The Indian community in Canada would, however, watch closely the handling of immigration-related issues. Some of Trudeau’s decisions in recent times have hurt the diaspora. He had ended the fast-track study visa programmes, and this had become a bone of contention for those Indians studying there. He also cut international student permits by 35 per cent this year and added that it would be further reduced by another 10 per cent next year.
Poilievre, on the other hand, has been vocal about returning to a more selective immigration system. He favours highly promising students and workers. His criticism of Trudeau’s policies has helped him garner support by the Canadian public. However, it has also earned him criticism from the Indian groups who say that his stance alienates them.
Trudeau’s likely successor
While stepping, Justin Trudeau said on January 6 that he would remain in office until his successor is found. It is unclear how much of a say Trudeau would have on the appointment of his successor.
Currently, there are six names in the reckoning, and the Liberal Party may choose one of these leaders for the role of Canadian Prime Minister.
Trudeau had said that he had long been trying to recruit Mar Carney to his team as the finance minister. The 59-year-old Carney has been serving in recent months as a special adviser to Trudeau.
Transport Minister Anita Anand is another contender for the top post. In 2021 the 57-year-old Anand was appointed as defence minister, and she led Canada’s efforts to provide aid to Ukraine. However, she was shuffled out of that ministry to oversee the Treasury Board. Trudeau’s critics saw this as a demotion and also a punishment for her being too ambitious to take the top post.
François-Philippe Champagne is a former businessman and minister of innovation, science and industry. The 54 year old is a strong contender and has been dubbed as Canada’s Energiser Bunny. Since he has both business and political acumen, he is seen as a contender.
The 45-year-old Melanie Joly is a minister of foreign affairs and has represented Canada on the world stage since 2021. She has travelled to Ukraine several times to show Canada’s support. She is close to Trudeau and has long wanted to run for the Liberal Party leader.
Dominic LeBlanc, the 57-year-old minister of finance and intergovernmental affairs, is one of Trudeau’s most trusted allies. He stepped in as finance minister at a difficult time following Christiya Freedland’s resignation. Being a strong political commentator makes him a contender to the top post.
Christy Clark, the former premier of British Colombia, has indicated that she would want to be part of the conversation on the future direction of the Liberal Party if Trudeau stepped down. The 59-year-old is not just ambitious but has been critical of Trudeau and called him a drag on the federal Liberals.
Join us says Trump
In the wake of Trudeau’s resignation, one of the most anticipated responses was that of Donald Trump. He was quick to bring up his long-standing suggestion that Canada should join the United States as the 51st state.
Taking to his Truth Social, he said that many Canadians would welcome the idea of merging with the US. The US can long suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this and resigned. Such a merger would eliminate tariffs, lower taxes, and ensure Canada’s security against threats from Russia and China. Together, a great nation would be, he also said.
