All eyes are on Sambhal as the situation remains tense following incidents of violence. The assessment by the Intelligence agencies is that this cannot be treated as a one-off incident, and there is a clear pattern to it.
Looking at the larger ramifications into the incidents of violence, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) is likely to step in and probe the case. This comes after it had been found that foreign elements could have instigated the violence with the intention that it spread to other parts of the country as well.
The violence broke out following a court-mandated survey that was conducted at the Jama Masjid in Sambhal, Uttar Pradesh. The survey was ordered in response to a petition filed by advocate Vishnu Shankar Jain and seven co-plaintiffs. They asserted that the Mosque occupies the site of a Temple dedicated to Bhagwan Kalki. This site is a protected monument under the Ancient Monuments Preservation Act of 1904.
The Foreign Hand
The foreign hand, and in particular Pakistan’s, is being suspected following the recovery of cartridges that were made in Pakistan and the United States. An empty cartridge manufactured in the Pakistan Ordinance Factory was recovered alongside five others from a drain at the site of the November 24 violence.
Police sources tell Organiser it is being ascertained where these cartridges came from. They could have been sourced by local goons, and the perpetrators of the violence may have had access to the same. The other angle to this is that the Muslim youth who were involved in the violence may have sourced it through some handler who operates from Pakistan.
The fact that the USA-made cartridges are being found at the site is also an indicator that there could be a Pakistani hand to it. Following the exit of the US forces from Afghanistan, outfits such as the Jaish-e-Mohammad have managed to source plenty of weapons that were left behind. The US, it may be recalled, made a hasty retreat from Afghanistan and, while doing so, left behind sophisticated arms and ammunition. Many of these arms have made their way into Jammu & Kashmir, and the security agencies have found them following encounters with Pakistani terrorists.
Nothing can be ruled out for now, and all angles will be studied closely. Divisional Commissioner Aunjaneya Singh said that one of the cartridges had the Pakistan Ordinance Factory written on it. It is a 9mm cartridge, and the bullet was shot. We suspect that it is made in Pakistan, he said while adding that another 9mm cartridge with FL and two stars possibly made in the US was also found.
Planned and guided
Looking at how the incident unfolded, investigation agencies say that this was clearly planned and not sporadic. Since the court ruled, a plan had been hatched, and it was not meant to be targeted, especially to Sambha alone.
There is a likelihood of it being part of a larger conspiracy with some external elements at play, an Intelligence Bureau official said. Countries such as Pakistan have very often used Muslims in Bharat to carry forward their agenda of inciting communal violence. This could well be part of that conspiracy, the official also said.
The fact that cartridges made in foreign countries have been found is a worrying development. The Uttar Pradesh police are likely to seek the help of the NIA to probe the case, considering its ramifications. The NIA, which has sweeping jurisdiction, will be able to probe the external angle better. The NIA would also be able to find out if there are inter-state ramifications in this case.
While Pakistan has supported and sponsored terror in various parts of the country, in some states it sponsors communal violence. This not only keeps the state on the boil but also gives the security agencies sleepless nights as they have to curtail the spread of the violence.
A Recruitment Tool
The nature of the violence in Sambhal was such that the Intelligence Bureau is keeping a close eye on terror modules and sleeper cells. Once such violence that is communal in nature takes place, then handlers are set in motion to recruit Muslims. This has happened several times in the past, and it cannot be ruled out in this case.
Terror groups keep a close eye on such developments and then set the ball rolling to incite communal tensions. Such incidents are used extensively to suggest that the minority community is under threat, and this makes it easy to recruit Muslims into terror groups.
Post the Godhra riots and Babri riots, terror groups, especially the Lashkar-e-Tayiba have taken advantage of the situation. In fact, the recruitment drive was at its highest after the Babri riots.
Looking to revive
Such incidents also give rise to concerns about terror groups, which have been underground, a chance at revival. A close eye is being kept on the Popular Front of India (PFI), which was banned for violent terror activities by the Ministry of Home Affairs.
While the PFI has remained largely silent since its ban, there is a lurking suspicion that it would use such incidents to revive itself. The PFI is an organisation that claims to work for the welfare of Muslims. In reality, all it did was terrorise people, divide society and then recruit terror groups such as the Islamic State.
The agencies do not rule out the possibility of the PFI’s underground cadre putting out literature on Telegram channels and social media about the Sambhal incident to incite communal tensions and also recruit Muslim youth.
The PFI, when it was active, had shared close ties with terror groups in Pakistan. It had picked the contacts that the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) had nurtured before being banned. In fact, the PFI had worked closely with the SIMI before it was banned. This proximity led to the formation of the Indian Mujahideen, which was born following a meeting in Kerala, popularly known as the Wagon Camp case.
Hence, the agencies do not rule out the PFI using its Pakistani contacts to indulge in violence in Bharat. The primary focus of the PFI now is to revive itself, and it could be seen emerging in a new avatar. Hence, such incidents as the motivated and pre-planned one in Sambhal could be used as tools by the likes of the PFI to revive itself, the agencies believe.
