With the ouster of Sheikh Hasina as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Bharat lost one of its closest allies. Ties which were built for nearly 15 years when Sheikh Hasina was in power was all lost with her ouster.
Bharat today is pondering over how to deal with the existing crisis, especially at a time when the country is burning, and the minority Hindus are under attack. Despite Bharat raising the issue relating to the atrocities being meted out against the Hindus, Bangladesh has been denying any wrongdoing and continues to maintain that the minorities in the country are safe.
Should Bharat get Muhammad Yunus on board
Although talks are the best option with any country to improve ties, in this case it seems highly unlikely. This brings one to the question and that is whether it is worth pursuing Yunus.
Ask any expert and they would say that Bharat should not waste time in pursuing Yunus. First and foremost, he will not be on board and taking into consideration that he will be gone soon, it is not worthwhile reaching out to Yunus.
Yunus is a caretaker of the country and this means he will not be in office for long. He will remain relevant until the elections are held, following which he will have no major role to play in the government.
Contrary to what meets the eye, Yunus does not share great ties with the BNP or the Jamaat. This is largely to do with the fact that it is the BNP, Jamaat and the fringe groups which are calling the shots and inciting violence. Basically the situation is not under the control of Yunus and hence this makes it even more clear as to why New Delhi should not pursue Yunus.
Analyse deeper
A students’ protest was organised and in no time was Sheikh Hasina ousted from power. This was celebrated, but the joy for many was short-lived. Now it has all boiled down to power play and neither the BNP or the Jamaat backed by all the radical fringe elements are ready to budge an inch when it comes to sharing the spoils.
Top officials in New Delhi are closely analysing the situation and would go deeper in in the days to come. Bharat would look to exploit the differences between the ones who are calling the shots. This is evident from the fact that the Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Pranay Verma is reaching out to the BNP.
The BNP factor
Looking at the events unfolding in Bangladesh, it is quite evident that elections will be held soon and it is most likely that the BNP would come to power. If the BNP is voted to power, then the Prime Minister of Bangladesh would be Tariq Zia, the London based son of BNP supremo, Khaleda Zia.
However it would take a lot of effort to work around Tariq Zia as he is known to be close to the Pakistan establishment and also has good relations with the ISI. The fact that is a hardline anti-Indian would also make it tricky for New Delhi to work around him.
However, that does not mean that it is the end of the road. There is also work taking place behind the scenes to reach out to the BNP leadership. Tariq Zia would eventually understand why it would be beneficial to share close ties with Bharat rather than a failed state like Pakistan. Ties with Bharat would mean that the economy of Bangladesh grows. On the other hand sharing close ties with Pakistan would mean that Bangladesh turns into a completely Islamic State that would be governed by the Sharia law. It would also mean that Tariq Zia would just be a figure head under the clutches of the radical mullahs.
New Delhi would ultimately follow the Sri Lanka model while dealing with Dhaka. Earlier this year, New Delhi hosted Anura Kumari Dissanakaye early. He is currently the President of the island nation and ties have gradually improved and both countries share a good working relationship. A similar approach towards Tariq Zia would help in normalising ties. Despite being pro-Pakistan, Tariq is also seen as being pragmatic.
Another interesting factor is that this time around the BNP and Jamaat may not look in eye like they have done in the past. The Awami League is weak today and hence is unlikely to pose any challenge. This means that the BNP and the Jamaat do not have a common enemy and both would be contenders for the top post. The relations are likely to turn muddy as elections approach and this would well work in Bharat’s favour.
The Sheikh Hasina factor
The Sheikh Hasina factor is a major issue when it comes to ties with Bangladesh. Dhaka has been relentlessly pursuing the extradition of Hasina who is currently in New Delhi.
New Delhi will have to convey to the BNP that it would never turn its back on Hasina. On the other hand, the BNP should be told that both countries can share good ties without the Sheikh Hasina factor coming in the way.
Experts say that this would however be the hardest part of any negotiation with Dhaka. The BNP once in power will pursue the extradition of Sheikh Hasina aggressively. The BNP does have an axe to grind with her since it was during her tenure that Khaleda Zia was sent to jail. Further the extradition of Hasina becomes even more important for the BNP in the context of public posturing.
When Hasina fled the country, she had first reached out to the United Kingdom. However with the UK being reluctant, she took refuge in New Delhi. Currently she is in talks with the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf nations. There is some activity on that front and if all works as per plan, then Hasina may be out of New Delhi.
Taming the army
While the political outreach is extremely important, it is equally necessary that the Bangladesh army is also on board. Currently there is not much of a problem on this front as the ties are cordial on this front. However, the ties should go beyond cordial, and all attempts should be made to ensure that the Pakistan Army does not gain control.
In the days to come one would get to witness more joint exercises between the Indian and Bangladesh armies. Keeping close contacts with the top generals would also help improve ties between the two countries. The army should be told that letting the ISI take control would only mean that they would lose their independence and remain under the control of the Pakistan Army. Further New Delhi has much more to offer when compared to Islamabad and this includes better training facilities and deals.
New Delhi is however confident that ties will be back to normal. It would use every trick up its sleeve to better relations without compromising on its interests. However, all that will only begin taking shape when Muhammad Yunus who is completely under the control of the West makes an exit from the political landscape of Bangladesh.
