He is facing heavy American pressure to reach a ceasefire. The Americans are requesting that Israel refrain from expanding its operations in Lebanon and also reduce its future attacks in Iran, to prevent a regional war. The Americans are offering Israel a series of economic and diplomatic benefits, provided that Israel agrees to halt its military activities across the Middle East. In this context, Israeli Channel 14 reported that the American administration invited Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for meetings in the U.S. to try to persuade him to adopt American positions and interests.
Prime Minister Netanyahu probably believes American pressure stems from the Democratic Party’s desire to win the upcoming elections. In his view, both the Vice President and the President are anxious about the possibility of an all-out war that would significantly harm the Democrats’ chances of remaining in power for the next four years.
Netanyahu currently has a few weeks during which he can operate freely. However, after a new president is elected in the United States, it is expected that his ability to act militarily against hostile terrorist organizations will be significantly restricted.
At the same time, he is facing the call from the French President to impose a global arms embargo on Israel and his demand that Israel cease its military operations. Thus, he is not only facing diplomatic pressure but also pressure from multiple fronts: Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Judea and Samaria, and Yemen.
Moreover, Prime Minister Netanyahu is under dual internal pressure. On one hand, there is the liberal camp calling for a ceasefire and the promotion of a deal with Hamas for the return of 101 hostages, while on the other hand, the conservative camp is calling for an expansion of the war and the takeover of southern Lebanon to prevent the establishment of a terrorist army on Israel’s northern border. Both camps believe that promoting their agendas will enhance Israel’s security.
Thus, there is a risk that they will prefer to withdraw from the government at some point to present themselves as hawks on military matters. Regarding the Likud party, from which the Prime Minister leads, there could be Knesset/parliament members and ministers who could challenge the Prime Minister and attempt to replace him. This attempt could occur within the Likud party or through the defection of several Knesset members to competing parties.
Another problem facing the Prime Minister lies in the legal realm. This is in light of his criminal trial, which is expected to resume in November 2024. Here the question arises of how a Prime Minister can fulfill manage the war on multiple fronts while simultaneously fighting for his future as a free person. Additionally, it should be remembered that Netanyahu has been engaged in a long-standing struggle against the Israeli judicial system, claiming that the courts and the prosecution prevent the government from implementing its policies in various areas, including national security.
Another challenge facing the Prime Minister is the persistent demand from many in the Israeli public to investigate the events of October 7 and the expectation for him to take responsibility and resign.
Another related challenge is Netanyahu’s confrontation with the Israeli security establishment, which is largely composed of officials whose political positions are liberal and are opposed to those of Netanyahu’s government. The security establishment sometimes issues statements without coordinating with the Prime Minister’s office and expresses positions that do not reflect Netanyahu’s policies.
Additionally, in northern Israel, tens of thousands of Israelis cannot return to their homes due to fears that the massacre of October will be repeated, this time at the border with Lebanon. Therefore, residents of the north believe that a decisive attack should be launched against the terrorist organisation Hezbollah. They are pressuring Netanyahu to reach the Lebanese capital, while he is reluctant to do that.
Another challenge Netanyahu faces is the number of casualties Israel is suffering in the war. A sharp increase in casualties as a result of a military operation in Lebanon or an attack on Iran could significantly reduce support for him among the Israeli public.
A similar challenge is the depletion of reservists over the past year. These are tens of thousands of soldiers who have had to fight for an extended period. These soldiers have suffered economic losses, physical and psychological injuries. Now, they are required to continue being effectively mobilised again for a prolonged period of time that may last several years. Therefore, the Prime Minister must address the issue of fatigue among the Israeli fighting force, which constitutes only a small percentage of the total Israeli population.
Another challenge facing Netanyahu is the economic aspect. The costs of conducting the war, including payments to evacuees, have led to enormous deficits that will require both significant budget cuts and tax increases. Until now, Netanyahu has refrained from taking difficult economic measures so as not to harm public support. However, he must pass a budget for 2025 by the end of March next year, otherwise his government will fall, and new elections will be called.
Netanyahu, for his part, appears ready to tackle all the challenges before him and Israel. He must show that nearly 1,700 victims in the war did not fall in vain. It seems that the ideal solution to all the problems presented above is to achieve military success. For example, the elimination of Hezbollah leadership in September 2024 helped Netanyahu improve his political standing, and his support surged dramatically in public opinion polls. Additionally, another party joined his government, thus helping him consolidate support in the parliament for his government.
However, if the war reaches a stage of stagnation or deadlock, Netanyahu has the option of calling for early elections. Such an option might be preferred by Netanyahu as it would allow him to present himself as someone who succeeded in overthrowing Hamas’s rule in Gaza and killing the top leadership of the notorious Lebanese terrorist organization. Moreover, calling for early elections would spare the Prime Minister the need to impose harsh economic cuts on the public.
