In 2022, BLA carried out a suicide bombing around Karachi University, killing three Chinese teachers, perhaps one of the first glimpses of BLA making its striking pattern more intense. After that, BLA continued to hit Pakistan’s security establishment with a more hardened and in-depth approach. The recent BLA attack on August 26, 2024, where at least 23 Punjabi travellers were killed in the Rarasham area of Musakhail District in Balochistan when cadres of Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) offloaded passengers from trucks and buses and shot at them after checking their identities. This incident was just a beginning to mark Balochi’s insurgency revival.
Operation Herof: Massive Resurgence Attempt
BLA launched a sophisticated and coordinated operation codenamed Herof, which means Dark Storm, where BLA claims to have killed 130 military personnel during a series of coordinated attacks across Balochistan. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed that the group’s elite Fidayeen unit, the Majeed Brigade, had “maintained control over the Bela camp for 20 hours,” during which “68 military personnel were killed and dozens more injured.” The BLA also reported that its Fateh Squad and Special Tactical Operations Squad (STOS) had set up blockades on major highways across Balochistan, leading to the deaths of 62 military personnel. “After achieving the objectives of Operation Herof, the roadblocks on all highways were lifted,” the statement read.
The intensity of operation, at least at the ground level, appears to be relatively high, and such coordinated attacks showcase the possibility of the Balochistan Liberation Army’s strategic revival, which will have dynamic ramifications for Pakistan’s security matrix in the coming months or even years. Meanwhile, a comparative analysis of terrorism-related fatalities in the first eight months of each respective year in the province shows 2024 as the highest since 2015. This year’s BLA’s attacks against Pakistan’s Army establishments have significantly gained not only operational momentum but also yelled practical and in-depth strikes, an assessment of the 29 January attacks till 14 August gives an account of BLA’s increasing precision and in-depth striking capabilities, which is still haunting Pakistan’ Security establishments.
The Baloch Revival
The Internal security situation in Pakistan seems to be in risky waters. The Islamist terror groups have joined BLA forces, and organised and precision-guided strikes show two key possibilities in the long-standing Baloch Insurgency. First- organised planning capability gives them the ability to carry out strikes on a large scale and fuels the most critical part- Baloch nationalism. Second, enhanced striking capabilities have helped BLA carry out effective strikes, unlike ordinary hit-and-run strikes. There has always been a static argument in the spectrum by Pakistan’s security establishment; that is, Pakistan has a strong capability of suppression, and like years back, they can still crush the BLA force. However, this argument gets hollowed by events after Pakistan’s resolve, as happened earlier this month. The building consistency in Balochs as organised political and guerilla forces with the increasing support of various terror fractions tells that Balochis have the strength to revive themselves despite years of Pakistan’s brutal suppression. The Baloch nationalism, which was fragmented, showed some signs of upward momentum, especially after Operation Herof. One more glaring observation that further strengthens this Balochi upsurge is that these operations and armed struggles are not limited to the landed elite or Sardars for leadership and are more inclusive of women and working-class people. This sense of inclusivity strengthens nationalism and enlarges the capacity of armed struggle, which will help BLA cadres to sustain ground for more time against the Pakistan Army, unlike years ago when the momentum of BLA hit after a brutal response from the Pakistan security establishment.
The most interesting part of this possible revival is Mahrang Baloch, leader of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), who weaved out a non-violent political stage to mobilise and politically strengthen the currents of Baloch nationalism. The political bells are being arranged, and the recent speech and rally of Mahrang Baloch is touching the nerves of local Balochis in Gwadar. According to reports, if security forces had not forced so many to turn away, the BYC protest in Gwadar would have drawn a crowd of 200,000. It is the first time such massive unity and mobilisation has occurred among Balochis. Speaking to a leading newspaper in the US, Mahrang Baloch said, “We started mass mobilisation in schools as well as going door-to-door to provide the youth … with political education. From an organised armed struggle to an organised political upsurge, the revival of Baloch nationalism shows promising signs of strong struggle.
Pakistan’s Counter-Terror Promises Fall Flat
A few months ago, Pakistan launched its ambitious counter-terrorism operation codenamed Azm- -E Ishtekam, which promised a firm resolve against terror attacks in Pakistan. Though it has seen slim success against TTP, it failed to cap the Baloch’s strong resurgence. Operation Herof was launched under the overhang of Pakistan’s counter-terror response, which even hit the BLA camp as well, where Pakistan’s Special Forces SFs were conducting large-scale operations in the Mastung and Bolan Districts of Balochistan, deploying both ground troops and helicopter gunships. According to media reports, Army infantry and aerial operations had been ongoing for several preceding days in these regions, with more than seven combat helicopters participating. Despite operational presence and response in targeted BLA areas, Pakistan faced its biggest retaliation to its counter-terror operation. The reason behind this failure is Pakistan’s fragmented operational response and poor sense of operational judgements and assessments. Pakistan’s security establishment is not fine-tuned with such large counter-terror operations. Rather, they specialise in unconventional methods, which are assassinations, forced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, and Balochis are prime victims and suffer from the terror of Pakistan’s Special forces. According to the Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) report of December 2023, more than 7,000 persons have gone ‘missing’ from Balochistan since 2000. However, the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances, formed in 2011 to trace the missing persons and fix responsibility on the individuals or organisations responsible for it, posted data on its website claiming that there were just 454 ‘active cases’ of enforced disappearances from Balochistan, as of October 2023.
The joining hands of various terror fractions with BLA cadres and the failure to counter and fragment the growth of combined terror brigades is one more glaring failure of Pakistan’s ongoing operations. To shift focus from failures, Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir has turned towards the digital spectrum, where in his speeches, he expressed warnings and concern over “digital terrorism”, which was vaguely defined. The internet speed in Pakistan is gradually getting slowed, sparking debate that Pakistan’s ISI is again targeting political activism and Imran Khan’s possible attempt to politically resurge through digitally built AI speeches and other opposition and anti-army elements. Such attempts to shift tactical goals show that Pakistan is desperate to achieve desirable results. Still, its long-entrenched habit of half-hearted intent and strategically and operationally weakened plans will take Pakistan to land nowhere.
Pakistan’s preparation for big show and resurgence implications
As Pakistan prepares for significant diplomatic and sports events, which are likely to take place In Pakistan from SCO, SAARC and ICC Champions Trophy, it faces significant challenges to safety and security commitments. However, under the present circumstances where Pakistan is at risk of becoming a terror hotbed, the possibilities of such spotlight events are slim, and this setback will hit Pakistan’s counter-terror credentials harder and bring huge embarrassment, especially from its political forces inside the country. The first implication is quite apparent, which is diplomatic and the fall of the image at the global level. Second, is a strain on the Pakistan-China relationship as Gwadar and the CPEC region are currently under severe threat from BLA. Third- Dangers of socio-political instability where Pakistan security establishment might increase its force against political and social activists in Pakistan after Asim Munir’s hint at digital terrorism. Fourth- a possible prolonged battle with terror groups can further complicate the security situation in Pakistan. Fifth- through a slim possibility, but chances of Pakistan-US getting a bit closer for counter-terrorism cooperation can help Pakistan to avail some benefits and geopolitical rent from the US as recently the US State Department has shown solidarity and commitment with Pakistan counter-terror efforts and condemned BLA attacks. Such developments were not quick in the case of India. At least former RAW chief Vikram Sood, on his X(formerly Twitter) handle, said, “The US never made such statements for India when Pak-based Pak-inspired terrorists were at work in Kashmir”, reacting to the US’ statement on BLA attacks. As Pakistan stands at risk of multiple instabilities even after running the operations for months, it is seriously forced to re-look at Pakistan’s destroying health of national development.
