Climate change poses a significant threat to agriculture in India, impacting crop yields, livestock, and food security. The National Innovations on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), a project by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), has assessed the impact of climate change using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) protocols. This article explores the vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change, projected impacts on crop yields, and the adaptation measures being implemented to mitigate these effects.
Vulnerability Assessment of Agricultural Districts
ICAR evaluated 573 out of 651 predominantly agricultural districts for climate change risk and vulnerability. The assessment revealed that 109 districts are categorized as ‘very highly’ and 201 districts as ‘highly’ vulnerable to climate change. This assessment highlights the widespread risk across India’s agricultural landscape and underscores the need for targeted adaptation strategies to protect these regions.
Projected Declines in Crop Yields
Integrated computer simulation modelling studies indicate significant potential declines in crop yields due to climate change. Without adaptation measures, rainfed rice yields are projected to decrease by 20 per cent by 2050 and 47 per cent by 2080, while irrigated rice yields may reduce by 3.5 per cent by 2050 and 5 per cent by 2080. Wheat yields could fall by 19.3 per cent in 2050 and 40 per cent in 2080, and kharif maize yields by 18-23 per cent in 2050 and 2080, respectively. Conversely, soybean yields are projected to increase by 3-10 per cent in 2030 and 14 per cent by 2080.
Adaptation Measures in Vulnerable Districts
To mitigate these impacts, adaptation measures have been demonstrated in 448 villages across 151 climatically vulnerable districts. These measures include the use of climate-resilient crop varieties, direct seeded rice (DSR), efficient irrigation systems, nitrogen application based on soil health cards and leaf colour charts, recycling crop residues into the soil, replacing fossil fuels with biogas and vermicomposting, reducing methane emissions from livestock, improved fodder management systems, agroforestry systems as carbon sinks, and zero till drill wheat to escape terminal heat stress. The District Agricultural Contingency Plan (DACP) has been prepared and implemented in 651 agriculturally important districts.
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA)
To support farmers in adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices, the government is implementing the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA). NMSA focuses on Rainfed Area Development (RAD), On-Farm Water Management (OFWM), and Soil Health Management (SHM). Additionally, new programs such as the Soil Health Card (SHC), Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY), Mission Organic Value Chain Development in the North Eastern Region (MOVCDNER), Per Drop More Crop, and the National Bamboo Mission (NBM) have been included. The Mission aims to evolve and implement adaptation and mitigation practices across the country to make agriculture resilient to the changing climate.
National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA)
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India, has launched the flagship network project, National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). This initiative aims to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture, encompassing crops, livestock, horticulture, and fisheries, and to develop and promote climate-resilient technologies. These efforts target vulnerable regions prone to extreme weather conditions like droughts, floods, frost, and heat waves, providing solutions to help these areas cope with such adversities.
Crop Varieties and Climate Resilient Villages
Over the past decade (2014-2024), ICAR has released a total of 2593 crop varieties, with 2177 of these demonstrating tolerance to various biotic and abiotic stresses. A risk and vulnerability assessment of agriculture to climate change was conducted at the district level for 651 predominantly agricultural districts, following Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) protocols. This assessment categorized 109 districts as ‘very high’ and 201 as ‘highly’ vulnerable. In response, District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs) were developed for these 651 districts, addressing weather aberrations such as drought, floods, unseasonal rains, and extreme weather events like heat waves, cold waves, frost, hailstorms, and cyclones. These plans recommend location-specific climate-resilient crops, varieties, and management practices for use by state agricultural departments and farmers.
Climate Resilient Villages (CRVs)
To enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of farmers to climate variability, ICAR has initiated the concept of “Climate Resilient Villages” (CRVs) under NICRA. Climate-resilient technologies tailored to specific locations have been demonstrated in 448 CRVs across 151 climatically vulnerable districts, encouraging adoption by farmers. Through the NICRA project, ICAR also raises awareness about the impact of climate change on agriculture and conducts capacity-building programs to educate farmers on various aspects of climate change, facilitating the wider adoption of climate-resilient technologies.
Government Initiatives and Programs
● The Climate Resilient Agriculture (CRA) Technology has been implemented in 448 CRVs across 151 districts in 28 states and Union Territories. Additionally, the government has undertaken initiatives to address climate change through the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), one of the missions within the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC).
● NMSA aims to develop and implement strategies to make Indian agriculture more resilient to the changing climate. Key components of NMSA include Rainfed Area Development (RAD), On-Farm Water Management (OFWM), and Soil Health Management (SHM). New programs such as the Soil Health Card (SHC), Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY), Mission Organic Value Chain Development in the North Eastern Region (MOVCDNER), Per Drop More Crop, and the National Bamboo Mission (NBM) have also been incorporated to bolster these efforts.
● The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare has recognized the significant impact of climate change on food security and has implemented various measures to address this issue. One of the key initiatives is the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), which is part of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The Mission aims to make Indian agriculture more resilient to changing climate conditions by supporting sustainable agricultural production through various schemes.
● Initially, NMSA focused on three major components: Rainfed Area Development (RAD), On-Farm Water Management (OFWM), and Soil Health Management (SHM). Over time, additional programs such as the Soil Health Card (SHC), Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY), Mission Organic Value Chain Development in the North Eastern Region (MOVCDNER), Per Drop More Crop, and the National Bamboo Mission (NBM) were also included to further bolster agricultural resilience.
● To further safeguard food security in the face of climate change, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) launched the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) project. This flagship network project aims to study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, including crops, livestock, horticulture, and fisheries, and to develop and promote climate-resilient technologies.
● NICRA focuses on addressing vulnerable areas of the country, helping districts and regions prone to extreme weather conditions such as droughts, floods, frost, and heat waves cope with these challenges. Over the past decade, ICAR has released 2593 varieties, with 2177 of these demonstrating tolerance to one or more biotic and/or abiotic stresses. Additionally, a district-level risk and vulnerability assessment of agriculture to climate change has been conducted for 651 predominantly agricultural districts, categorizing 109 as ‘very high’ and 201 as ‘highly’ vulnerable.
● In response to these findings, District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs) have been developed for these 651 districts. These plans address weather aberrations like droughts, floods, unseasonal rains, and extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold waves, frost, hailstorms, and cyclones.
● The DACPs recommend location-specific climate-resilient crops, varieties, and management practices for use by state agriculture departments and farmers. To enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of farmers to climate variability, the concept of “Climate Resilient Villages” (CRVs) has been initiated under NICRA. Climate-resilient technologies tailored to specific locations have been demonstrated in 448 CRVs across 151 climatically vulnerable districts for farmer adoption. Furthermore, capacity-building programs are being conducted to educate farmers on various aspects of climate change to promote the wider adoption of climate-resilient technologies.
The impact of climate change on Indian agriculture is profound, threatening crop yields, food security, and the livelihoods of millions of farmers. Through comprehensive vulnerability assessments and integrated simulation models, significant potential declines in key crop yields have been projected. In response, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare have undertaken extensive measures to mitigate these impacts. Initiatives such as the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) and the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) are pivotal in promoting climate-resilient technologies and sustainable agricultural practices. The development of Climate Resilient Villages (CRVs) and the implementation of District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs) are crucial steps toward enhancing the resilience and adaptive capacity of farmers. By fostering awareness, education, and adoption of climate-resilient strategies, India is striving to secure its agricultural future against the challenges posed by a changing climate.
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