On June 4, 2024, history was created after 62 years, as for the first time after 1962, a government at the centre returned for its third term. Even after ruling for 10 years, BJP remained the first choice for the majority of voters even this time, even though this time the party couldn’t garner full majority by itself like the previous two terms. The detractors of the party and particularly, the critics of Narendra Modi, are hailing this victory as the defeat of the regime, even though the collective force of all the opposition is still less than the seats garnered by BJP. Yes, this election did provide some grounding to the party in terms of expected vote share in certain key areas, which fell short of the humongous expectations the country had with the BJP. And this requires a careful assessment of the areas where the party needs to work and the areas where the BJP played a trump card.
The Positives
The biggest positive from the election is the reaffirmation of the fact that BJP still enjoys a large support base in India. In states like Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Delhi, Andaman and Nicobar (where they had lost their seat in the 2019 elections), Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, BJP made a clean sweep, winning all the seats. In states like Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Odisha too, they nearly sweeped the elections. BJP was able to make inroads into the states where they did not have a presence earlier like Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, and improved considerably in Telangana, garnering the joint-highest seats. The efforts of the BJP cadre was visible in their remarkable performance in Odisha in particular, where the party was able to acquire landslide victories in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections on the same day. The NDA will be just shy of the figure of 300 seats. PM Narendra Modi is likely to return for his third term, and unlike the opposition, which appears to be an opportunistic mishmash of different factions, Modiji had shown the signs of a clear vision and a firm resolve to execute the same. In his speech on the eve of the result declaration, Modiji claimed that “Our third term will be one of big decisions and the country will write a new chapter of development. This is Modi’s guarantee.”
Things That Could Have Been Better
After ten years of absolute majority at the centre, India will see a return of coalition government. The final tally of 240 seats, while being a great figure in itself, fell short of absolute majority. BJP’s performance in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bengal and Maharashtra leaves a lot to be desired. Also, BJP would have liked to win some seats in Tamil Nadu and Punjab, where it failed to garner any seats. The vote share of the Bharatiya Janata Party saw a marginal dip from 37. 77% in 2019 to 36.56% in 2024. In many states and Union territories, BJP was not able to improve its performance from the last time, like loss of 1 seat in Gujarat, 2 seats in Manipur, 5 seats in Bihar from the last elections. Overall, the performance of BJP was satisfactory but not overwhelming, and that’s why we see a comparatively muted celebration this time.
What Went Wrong?
Many detractors are seeing the mandate as a response to the arrogance of BJP, and opposition are even claiming a moral victory from this election. Even though it is not even close to the truth, there were some tactical failures of the Bharatiya Janata Party, which cost it dearly. A major error of the party could be the assimilation of leaders from opposition parties, with a tainted image, and preferring them for the elections, rather than showing faith in their own devoted Karyakartas. Ignorance of the leadership from within the state and centering the whole election around the charisma of PM Narendra Modi and other Pan-Indian leaders was also a point of contestation.One of the shocking defeats for the party came from the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat, which includes the region of Ayodhya, a region the party was so assured of winning considering the wave of support they received due to the Ram Mandir Consecration. Here too, BJP on their part made an error by inviting pompous and glamorous celebrities to the consecration event, rather than the people, who devoted and even sacrificed their lives for the Ram Mandir. What added fuel to fire was the growing discontent among the youths due to the corruption in the bureaucracy, rising unemployment and the unending delays in conducting exams which put the lives of millions of people in a quandary.
Another shortcoming of the party was to undermine the caste and religious dynamics of India, and not focusing enough on their core support group. BJP’s indifference to the caste and religious question in key regions, proved costly for them, as many of the constituencies voted on the lines of their caste, religion and ethnic affinities.
The Path Ahead
The victory of the NDA faction in the 2024 elections is historic in terms of its political importance, and will play a vital role in ensuring progressive and nationalist policies will find a stable ground for five more years at least to be able to continue their developmental agenda. This is a moment to rejoice for BJP, as they have achieved something significant. At the same time, they also need to introspect and make some minor adjustments to ensure that no further harm is done to their almost robust political legacy in the future. Apart from choosing better candidates from the pool of local workers, BJP also needs to focus on their core group, which is the middle class Hindu, who according to J Sai Deepak, is ready to vote for BJP because of the assurance that they will continue to preserve their culture and tradition. Also, efforts should be made to decolonise the space of Indian politics and history, as a sizeable section of the society is fed on the western infested Anti-Indian discourse, which doesn’t allow them to see the social transformation in the present times in an appreciative light. If BJP succeeds in remaining firm in not compromising with their political ideals for their political gains, and have requisite faith on its manpower, then Sky is the limit for them.
