The evolving politics in Uttar Pradesh have taken a new turn after a formal alliance between the Congress party and the Samajwadi Party. This I.N.D.I Alliance at the eleventh hour in Uttar Pradesh had exposed the inherent weakness of these parties. These two parties come together only for the sake of maintaining their existence. These two parties knew well that if they went alone, then they would bite the dust. The Congress party had limited or very little presence in Uttar Pradesh as of now. It has only one Lok Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh.
Only Sonia Gandhi won the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat in the previous 2019 Lok Sabha poll. Even Sonia Gandhi opted for Rajya Sabha instead of contesting the forthcoming tough Lok Sabha poll. Even the Congress party lost its traditional seat of Amethi in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. Amethi is also the home constituency of the Gandhi family. Gandhi family’s current generation prefers to contest from Rae Bareli and Amethi in North India or Hindi speaking belt. Beyond these two seats, the Gandhi family prefers seats in South India. Among the South Indian seats are Bellary, Wayanad, Medak and Chickmanglur. None of the family members re-contested any of the seats in South India till now. If Rahul Gandhi contests this time from Wayanad in 2019 again, then this will be the first instance when the Gandhi family will contest for a second time from any seat in South India.
After the demise of its supremo, Mulayam Singh Yadav, the Samajwadi Party is in the doldrums. Since the 2017 Lok Sabha poll, the Samajwadi Party has been losing its political space at rapid speed. In the 2017 Lok Sabha poll, the Congress Party and the Samajwadi Party forged an alliance even when the late Mulayam Singh Yadav was alive. However, the result of the 2017 Lok Sabha poll had completely shackled both parties. The tally of the Samajwadi Party came to 47 seats from 224 in the previous 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. While, the tally of the Congress party came to 7 in 2017 in comparison to 28 in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. The 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election clearly demonstrated that the voters of these two parties have little or even no sync with each other. The timing of the announcement of the I.N.D.I Alliance also demonstrates that the two parties have tried to bargain with each other and at last came to this decision. Initially, the Samajwadi Party was in favour of giving fewer seats to the Congress party. However, through bargaining and other pressure-building measures, the Congress party got 17 seats in I.N.D.I Alliance with Uttar Pradesh.
The Samajwadi Party learnt lessons from Bihar in dealing with the Congress Party with the Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD), and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) in the 2009 and 2010 Bihar Assembly polls. In the 2009 Lok Sabha poll, the RJD and the LJP decided to seat on their own and gave only three seats to the Congress party. In response, the Congress party contested on its own all seats and put such candidates, which cut into the vote of the RJD-LJP alliance. Consequently, the tally of the RJD came to 4 from its previous tally of 22 in the 2004 Lok Sabha poll. The tally of the LJP came to zero from 4 in the 2004 Lok Sabha poll. Even the late Ramvilas Paswan lost his traditional seat of Hajipur in the 2009 Lok Sabha poll. Since then, his party never forged an alliance with the Congress party. Again, in the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections, the Congress party contested on its own, and the tally of RJD came to 22 and that of the LJP to 3. So, the Congress party’s political preference is also to teach lessons to those parties which denied its alliance proposal. After the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections, Lalu Yadav and his party, the RJD, came into permanent I.N.D.I Alliance with the Congress party. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly election, the RJD gave 70 seats to the Congress party beyond its strength, taking lessons from its 2010 Bihar Assembly election fiasco. The Congress party won only 19 seats by contesting 70 assembly seats. Due to its spoiling effect, the Congress party always blackmail other parties and garners more seats than its strength. The SP may be of the opinion that if it does not go in I.N.D.I Alliance with the Congress party, then it may face the wrath of the Congress party like the RJD and LJP in Bihar in the 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 Assembly polls.
The Samajwadi Party allocated 17 seats to the Congress party only to save itself from the wrath of the Congress party. In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, the Congress party was in a direct contest on only four seats. Besides winning the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat, the Congress party was runner on three seats. These seats were Amethi, Kanpur and Fatehpur Sikri. In the 2022 UP Assembly election, the Congress party won only two seats. These seats were Rampur Khas and Pharenda. Rampur Khas seat is the familiar fiefdom of Parmod Tiwari, Deputy Leader of the Congress party in Rajya Sabha. Besides winning these two seats, the Congress party was runner on only four seats. The Congress party contested 399 assembly seats in UP in the 2022 Assembly elections and lost its deposit on 387 seats. The Congress party was trailed on 62 assembly seats even by NOTA. If we calculate the vote share of all the Congress parties in Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seats of the 2022 UP Assembly elections, then the Congress party stood in the distant third spot on both seats. In the 2022 Assembly elections on five assembly segments of Amethi LS seat, the Congress party got 142952 votes with respect to 418700 votes of the BJP/NDA and the 352475 votes of the Samajwadi Party. In the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat, the Congress party got only 140706 votes with respect to 381625 votes of the BJP/NDA (and 402179 votes of the Samajwadi Party).
The Samajwadi Party had already announced some candidates for seats being allocated to the Congress party. Now, the SP will have to withdraw these candidates. This will also have a negative effect on the prospects of the INDI candidates on these seats, besides neighbouring seats in Uttar Pradesh.
The case of the Maharajganj Lok Sabha seat has an interesting issue. The Congress party put Supriya Shrinate as its candidate in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, and she garnered 72516 votes. In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, Virendra Chaudhary was elected from the Pharendra assembly seat, which falls within the Maharajganj Lok Sabha seat. On Pharendra’s assembly seat, he got 85181 votes. Now, it’s tough for the Congress party to decide whom to field from the Maharajganj Lok Sabha seat as from only one assembly segment, Virendra Chaudhary got more votes than Supriya Shrinate from her Lok Sabha seat of five assembly segments. So, even after the I.N.D.I Alliance, both parties have to face several issues within their own parties.
