Kerala politics has entered a new phase after the joining of PC George into the BJP. The Kerala Janapaksham (Secular) led by PC George merger with the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) on January 31. P C George is the seven-time MLA from Poonjar assembly seat in Kottyam district. P C George joining the BJP will start stream of leaders from other parties to join the BJP. His joining will increase vote share across the State rather than in any particular area. On several Lok Sabha seats the BJP performance in 2019 was applaud able. Under changed political circumstances the BJP vote share may leap as in States of West Bengal and Tripura. The prospects become brighter for the BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha poll in Kerala.
The politics in Kerala is highly perplexing. The CPM-led LDF and the Congress party-led UDF are opponents and contesting against each other in Kerala. While in other States especially in Tripura and West Bengal these two parties and their allies are supporting each other. In 2011 in West Bengal Mamata Banerjee came to power under similar circumstances. The Congress party and the Communists were at loggerheads in West Bengal and they were supporting each other at Centre and people of the State punished these two parties by bringing Mamata Banerjee to power in West Bengal.
In successive elections in 2016 and 2021 these two parties are further losing their vote and now these parties have no representative in West Bengal. In Tripura too the Congress party and the Communists are struggling against the BJP for their survival in State politics. The BJP is growing in Kerala as in State of West Bengal and the party is likely to repeat its performance of Tripura and West Bengal in Kerala too. The BJP won both Tripura Lok Sabha seats in 2019 LS poll and won 18 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal too. The BJP may repeat same performance in Kerala too in 2024 LS poll. The people of Kerala are feeling cheated, as whichever alliance the LDF or the UDF chooses, they will finally come together in a post-poll scenario. In this case of confusion, they will make the final decision to vote for the BJP.
The internal chemistry of the Congress party and the Communists are not good in Kerala. Shashi Thaoor had put his candidature for the post of president of the Congress party against Mallikajun Kharge, nominee of the Gandhi family. A section of the Congress party who has allegiance with the Gandhi family is against Shashi Tharoor candidature from Thiruvananthpuram Lok Sabha seat. They don’t want Tharoor as party nominee from prestigious capital city seat. In case of Tharoor’s nomination as party candidate they may go against him and vote against him too as they foresee Tharoor a potential challenge against Rahul Gandhi in coming days. In that condition the BJP can win Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat. Besides the BJP can have domino effect on several seats in State and the BJP can also win many more seats from the State.
The CPI is demanding that Rahul Gandhi should forgo Wayanand Lok Sabha seat and instead should contest from any seat in Hindi speaking belt. This had put the Communist and the Congress party cadres against each other that may vote tacitly in 2024 LS poll to defeat each other. The BJP may also gain a lot from such an atmosphere.
Further the Congress party also lost its steam in Kerala as the party and its alliance the UDF didnot bounce back to power in 2021 Assembly election. It was first time since 1982 that the rotatory system of governance in Kerala between the LDF and the UDF failed otherwise these two alliances share power on rotation system for five year term as in Rajasthan since 1993.
Kerala has its own style of politics. In 1996 from Mararikulam assembly seat the LDF Chief Minister nominee V S Achutanandan lost his seat by margin of 1965 votes and didn’t became the CM. Though he became CM in 2006 by winning the Malampuzha assembly seat. VS case of 1996 may be compared to Shibu Soren in Jharkhand and late T P N Singh in UP who lost by-polls from Tamar and Maniram ACs respectively after becoming Chief Minister and forced to resign. So Kerala surprises many by its electoral verdicts.
The BJP is silently and consistently increased its footprint in Kerala. In Thiruvananthapuram Municipal election the BJP won 35 seats in 2020. In 2015 Thiruvananthapurm Municipal poll the BJP won 35 seats and in 2020 it maintained its tally of 35 seats. While the tally of the UDF had reduced from 21 to 11 in 2020 municipal poll. The UDF tally was decreasing election-by-election in Thiruvananthapuram Municipal poll. In 2010 the UDF won 40 seats which reduced to 21 in 2015 and further to 11 in 2020 Thiruvananthapuram Municipal poll. This showed that the BJP had cut into the vote bank of the UDF in Kerala. The pattern of Thiruvananthapuram Municipal poll will be replicated in 2024 LS poll across Kerala and the BJP may perform like Tripura and West Bengal in Kerala too.
The BJP was sandwiched in the bipolar politics of State between UDF and LDF. But this time due to several factors like the UDF failure to bounce back in power and a section of Congress party cadres disenchantment against Tharoor will change the political landscape of the State.
One of the reasons for the Congress party to distancing itself from the Ayodhya 22nd January consecration ceremony is the pressure of the Indian Union Muslim league(IUML). The IUML has strong massbase on Wayanad Lok Sabha Seat. Out of seven ACs of the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat two ACs Thiruvambadi & Erand are stronghold of the IUML. Congress party knows it well that Rahul Gandhi cannot win Wayanad Lok Seat without direct support of the IUML. So in order to keep IUML in good humour the Congress party distanced itself from the consecration ceremony.
Besides the Congress party performance in 2021 Assembly election in Kerala was highly despicable. The Congress party contested on 93 Assembly seats but won only 21 seats while the IUML, second largest party in UDF, won 15 seats while contesting only on 25 ACs. So the UDF allies are pressuring the Congress party to contest on less number of seats than it contested in 2019. In 2019 LS poll the Congress party contested on 16 LS seats and won 15 seats but in 2021 Assembly election the Congress party won only 21 seats while contesting on 93 ACs.
