The final stages of vote counting in assembly elections across all four states have brought about unexpected outcomes, confounding both polls and political analysts. Initial predictions, indicating a likely tie between the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress in ‘Poll of Polls,’ have been proven inaccurate. Astonishing results include a significant victory in Madhya Pradesh, a clean sweep in Rajasthan, and noteworthy figures in Chhattisgarh.
Contrary to expectations, the Congress secured a place in the southern state of Telangana. The BJP also celebrated unprecedented victories in the region, notably with star campaigners like T Raja Singh and the emerging star Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy from Kamareddy, who defeated both the outgoing Chief Minister KCR and the incoming CM Revanth Reddy.
In Madhya Pradesh, initially anticipated to witness a close contest between the BJP and Congress amid alleged anti-incumbency sentiments, the actual results provided a resounding response. Critics of the speculated “anti-incumbency” wave were proven wrong, as Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who has served for 18 years, is now poised for a potential fifth term if declared as the CM candidate by the party high commission.
At the time of filing this report, the BJP led in 165 seats, while the Congress held 64. Examining the ‘Poll of Polls’ data reveals varying predictions. India Today/Axis foresaw 140-162 seats for BJP and 68-90 for Congress. Times Now/ETG predicted 160-116 for BJP and 110-124 for Congress. ABP-C voters survey anticipated 88-112 for BJP and 113-137 for Congress. Republic TV and Matrize foresaw 118-130 for BJP and 97-107 for Congress, while Today’s Chanakya/News 24 projected 151 seats for BJP and 74 for Congress.
With the exception of India Today’s prediction, none of these surveys align with the current figures. An overall assessment, combining these figures into an exit “Poll of Polls,” suggested that the BJP was poised to secure no more than 124 seats, while Congress was expected to reach 106 seats, indicating a closely contested outcome.
The 2023 election featured 2,534 candidates, witnessing a voter turnout of 77.15 percent. According to Election Commission estimates, the BJP’s vote share stood at 48.69 percent (as of 3 pm), marking a significant increase of nearly 8 percent from the 2018 figure of 41.02 percent.
So, the question arises: What contributed to the BJP’s success?
Could it be attributed to the constant promotion of “Modi’s Magic” in the state, evident in the theme song “MP ke Man me Modi” and the rallying cry of “Modi ki Gurantee,” strategically employed to counter alleged false promises made by opponents? Given the significant presence of over fifty percent women voters in the state, both the BJP and Chief Minister Shivraj relied on them, with their flagship scheme being “Ladli Behna.” Did these schemes prove instrumental in capitalising on Modi’s charisma for the party?
In the clash between the two ‘Kamals’ (Kamal Nath and the BJP’s lotus symbol), it was the BJP’s lotus that blossomed in the state of Madhya Pradesh, securing power for the fifth consecutive term and defying the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment.
Prime Minister Modi conducted around 14 meetings in Madhya Pradesh, and the momentum of the ‘double-engine sarkar’ convinced the public that ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ was a serious commitment.
Additionally, the strategic acumen of the party’s ‘Chanakya’ and the meticulous management of Union Home Minister Amit Shah played crucial roles in the BJP’s successful retention of power in Madhya Pradesh. The BJP’s effective booth-level management outshone that of the opposition, contributing significantly to their victory.
As per our analysis, the following factors played a pivotal role in the BJP’s success:
Prime Minister Modi’s Magic: From MP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan to Cabinet Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, credit for the MP poll outcomes was attributed to PM Modi and his rallies. Prime Minister Modi addressed numerous rallies across several districts of Madhya Pradesh last month, targeting the Congress and highlighting the accomplishments of his government. “He held public rallies here and appealed to the people, and that touched people’s hearts,” remarked CM Chouhan when asked about the reason behind the BJP’s landslide win in MP. Additionally, CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan actively participated in the campaign, holding over 100 meetings across Madhya Pradesh, emphasising Ladli Behna Yojana to woo women voters on every occasion.
Ladli Behna Scheme: Chief Minister Chouhan heavily leaned on initiatives like the ‘Ladli Behna Yojana,’ wherein Rs 1250 is monthly transferred to eligible women from economically disadvantaged families in the state, bolstering public trust. Many ministers among the incumbent MP candidates credit the BJP’s victory to the Ladli Behna scheme. Additionally, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan pledged to provide cylinders for Rs 450 to women beneficiaries of the Ladli Behna Yojana. The record-breaking voter turnout of 77.15 percent marked the highest ever in the state, with a notable 2 percent increase in women voters.
Welfare Schemes: CM Chouhan attributes the BJP’s triumph to party workers and welfare schemes initiated by both the Central and state governments. He highlights central schemes like Garib Kalyan Yojana, PM Kisan Samman Nidhi, PM Awas Yojana, and state government schemes such as Ladli Behna Yojana and Ladli Laxmi Yojana, which resonated with voters.
Double-Engine Ki Sarkar: CM Chouhan credits the success of the BJP in the state to the double-engine government, emphasising the effective implementation of both Central Government and state-formed schemes that resonated with the people.
Scindia Factor: The BJP’s strong performance in the Chambal-Gwalior region during the 2023 MP elections, once a stronghold of the Congress in 2018, is attributed to the Scindia factor. The region, under Union Cabinet Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia’s influence, witnessed a notable shift in 2020 when Scindia, along with 22 Congress MLAs, joined the BJP. This defection led to the BJP’s ascent to power, with Shivraj Singh Chouhan assuming the CM role. Scindia’s move significantly impacted the Congress in the 2023 MP polls, particularly in the Chambal-Gwalior region, which comprises districts Gwalior, Shivpuri, Datia, Ashoknagar, Guna, Morena, Bhind, and Sheopur and is historically linked to the Scindia royal family.
Key Role of BJP’s National Leadership: Amit Shah played a pivotal role by directly overseeing developments and strategising for the Assembly elections, engaging in meetings even with booth-level workers. Prime Minister Modi conducted 14 rallies across various areas in Madhya Pradesh, and banners and posters featuring slogans like “MP ke man mein Modi aur Modi ke man mein MP” were distributed throughout the state to connect with the public. Shah also personally addressed party dissents, and as a strategic move, the BJP released its first list of candidates before the implementation of the state’s code of conduct.
Focus on Farmers: Amid addressing various issues, the BJP maintained a focus on the significant farmer demographic in the vote share. The party’s manifesto included announcements of an increased MSP on paddy at Rs 3,100 per quintal and Rs 2,700 per quintal on wheat. The implementation of the direct cash transfer scheme under Kisan Samman Nidhi was emphasised, with PM Modi repeatedly highlighting farmer-centric schemes launched by the central government in public meetings.
Ineffectiveness of Congress’ Guarantee: Despite several campaigns targeting the BJP to capitalise on anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh, Congress was unsuccessful. The party’s promise of nine guarantees failed to convince the public, and critics argued that previous unfulfilled promises, such as the farm loan waiver, had left farmers discontented.
Although the election has not been officially declared, the substantial lead by the BJP suggests it’s a mere formality. Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan, poised to become a five-time leader of the state, attributes the BJP’s success to Prime Minister Narendra Modi—a strategic move, particularly given the prior tensions with the party’s central leaders over Chouhan not being publicly backed as the campaign’s face.
