A noted scholar on China’s law and governance, Carl Minzner, Fordham University, has argued in his highly readable and well-sourced work ‘End of an Era: How China Authoritarian Revival is Undermining its Rise’ published by Oxford University Press, 2020 about the gradual erosion of ‘core factors’ like as collective leadership, ideological openness, and rapid economic growth which determined China’s growth story post-reform and opening up.
This marked shift was well witnessed after Xi Jinping became General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2012, ushering in a ‘new era’ in China of heightened political control, over-centralisation of power, suppressing political opponents and stifling civil society space. Under Xi Jinping, in the last 10 years, economic growth has weakened, and employment has risen at the cost of enhancing ‘political control and security’.
In continuum, the recently concluded 20th CPC Congress in China has not just given President Xi Jinping a third term but an ‘unprecedented power consolidation’ in his hands, bringing a complete circle to China’s neo authoritarianism rule under him.
Bolstering Xi’s Strength and Ideas
Father of Chinese economic reform, Deng Xiaoping coined the term “core leader” in Pekinology and argued for Chairman Mao Zedong and Jiang Zemin as the core leaders, establishing them with almost absolute authority without any question. Deng himself always practised ‘collective leadership’ managing CPC factionalism. Even Hu Jintao, who was Xi’s predecessor, was never called the “core leader”.
However, with every party Congress since 2012, the role and relevance of Xi Jinping has been revisited. In 2017, he was anointed as ‘core leader’, with the party document reiterating to “closely unite around the central committee with comrade Xi Jinping as the core”. Under the constitutional changes as undertaken in the 20th CPC Congress, the language of the party charter also bolsters ‘more power and influence’ to Xi Jinping. The inclusion of political ideas “two establishes” and the “two safeguards’ to the party constitution singularly attaches Xi’s ‘core status’ within the party’s rank, its political legitimacy and governing philosophy.
Much like the Soviet-style legacy and common practice across the globe in communist parties, the selection process for China’s topmost CPC standing committee is highly opaque with no transparency
Moreover, the term ‘Dual circulation’ first used in Politburo meetings by President Xi Jinping in May 2020, and phrases like “Common Prosperity”, which Xi used in mid-2021, have now been –formally written in the revised CPC Party Constitution. While the earlier aims to reorient the Chinese economy, the later calls for more redistribution of wealth. These are key to Xi Jinping’s political philosophy and vision, paving the way for its strong footprints on the party’s objectives. As head of the party, the military and the state, Xi Jinping enjoys absolute authority in neo-authoritarian China.
Awarding Loyalists
Much like the Soviet-style legacy and common practice across the globe in Communist parties, the selection process for China’s topmost CPC Standing Committee is highly opaque with no transparency. Unlike the old practice of managing party factionalism within the CPC, where leaders from the Shanghai gang, Tuanpai or Communist Youth League (CYL), Princelings and Tsinghua clique used to get elected to the CPC apex standing committee.
As unveiled under Xi Jinping’s third term, the new Standing Committee has strong lists of loyalists and leaders belonging to the “New Zhijiang Army”, the group closely related to President Xi. In order of importance, the new team has Xi Jinping (69) as President, Li Qiang (63) as the Premier, Zhao Leji (65), Wang Huning (67), Cai Qi (67), Ding Xuexiang (60) and Li Xi (66), are other members.
The inclusion of Li sends out a clear message for the bigger role of loyalists that despite his criticism in handling the Shanghai lockdown, he remained stickled to Xi’s directions and zero Covid-19 strategy. He fits perfectly into the ‘yes man’s club’ of Xi Jinping. The third-ranking member Zhao Leji has served in Shanxi province, and other PSC members, Li Xi and Zhang Youxia, also belong to Xi Jinping’s home province Shaanxi. Gen Zhang is second in command and Vice Chair in CMC, who served as commander of the PLA’s Western Command and its Eastern Theatre Command (ETC) from 2019 to January 2022, which overlooks Taiwan Strait. He fits into Xi’s ‘combat ready strategy’ and wolf warrior diplomacy, aggressively using the military to protect Chinese interests.
Cai Qi, who addressed President publicly as ‘Xi dada or Xi Boss’, is also awarded. So on board is Wang Huning, a political theorist and PhD holder from Fudan University on “Neo Authoritarianism” and a critique of American western democracy. He is also an ideologue behind Xi Jinping’s ‘China Dream’. While awarding loyalists, the time-tested principle of CPC’s Seven up eight down’ has been given away with, and we do not see any single making it into the PSC so far.The new team, under Xi Jinping indicates the party’s programme and agenda for the future. As the road ahead looks, three likely trends will be witnessed in Chinese domestic politics and external diplomacy.
Firstly, while the Chinese economy scuffles, the likely priority of the leadership shall remain to strengthen national security. The President will put a high premium on politics and security, even at the cost of the economy. Quite notably, Xi talked more of Marxism than markets in his opening speech. Secondly, as Xi tightens his control on the party and state, Beijing is more likely to remain defiant to its ‘neo-authoritarian policies’ and any sort of global criticism.
And thirdly, with the growing threat of economic sanctions from America and the West, the new team of leaders include influential names of technocrats and experts from science, engineering, defence and space research to bolster wider goals in future. To quote Wang Wen, the executive dean of the prestigious Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies in Beijing, “A third term for Xi Jinping very much represents continuity in all of China’s current policies. With no clear succession line for future the democratic world awaits some more unpredictable challenges and vulnerabilities from the neo authoritarian China under Xi Jinping’.
