Dr Prerna Malhotra
It is the best of times; it is the worst of times. If we look at the political eco-system of the country, for BJP it is the best of times since its inception and for Opposition, including Indian National Congress and Left parties, it is the worst of times. At present, BJP has the largest representation in national politics, as the single largest party with clear majority in Lok Sabha. It either has majority governments or coalition governments in 17 State Assemblies of the country. It is the largest political party of the world with maximum number of members, leaving the Communist Party of China much behind. The Party with meager two seats in 1984 Lok Sabha elections to 282 seats of its own and 336 with allies in 2014 national assembly, it has come a long way to claim for itself the tag of the biggest national party. It also became the first party to have got an outright majority in 2014 in the Parliamentary election after 1984.
Since BJP came to power in the Centre under the leadership of Narendra Modi, it has been able to tighten its grip on State Assemblies too which will certainly help it mainly on two decisive fronts in near future in addition to its overall consolidation- in having clear majority in the Rajya Sabha and having its own candidate for the post of President. Both these factors will assist the Government in taking bold and radical decisions and making opposition further insignificant.
If the recent unprecedented landslide victories in Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal are exceedingly heartening for BJP, the formation of BJP-led coalition Governments in Manipur and Goa voice another story of BJP’s magnetic lure for regional and smaller parties. The political untouchability has given way to acceptability and robust appeal to coalition partners which has been established through many examples in State Assemblies after Modi Government came to power. Remember the 13-day NDA Government when in spite of being the single largest party, BJP could not muster sufficient numbers to form a coalition government. Even the 13-month-old NDA Government fell down in 1998 when AIDMK withdrew support. That was in 1996 and 1998 respectively and now it is 2017 when BJP is no more the untouchable ‘communal’ party, as has been painted by prominent sections of media and intelligentsia all through these years.
The charismatic persona of Modi has been getting magnified in India and abroad in the absence of any other match-able leader of his size around. The way Modi has received laudatory red carpet welcomes in the countries he has visited and been successful in making India a brand overseas, is no less than a congratulatory accomplishment. The vote share of BJP has seen phenomenal rise after May 2014 when political critics had criticised the Party for low vote share, i.e. 31 per cent in the 2014 national elections.
Further, if the recently concluded five state election results have any larger meaning, the sweeping majority given to the national political parties in Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Punjab has decimated the power of regional parties. The Left has performed badly in its traditional constituencies even. Irom Sharmila, the poster woman of the Left in Manipur, ended up garnering only 92 votes. It is a symbolic defeat of redundant and irrelevant Leftist ideology.
The only other national party, Congress at present has its presence left only in six states, i.e. Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Puducherry. With BJP outreach at all-time high, the country is already on the path of Congress Mukt Bharat. Since May 2014, Congress has witnessed many political debacles, yet it has not shown any willingness to learn and make structural changes.
The emergence of BJP in the North-East is another success story, where it has arisen in a big way as a widely acceptable political force in the region, traditionally a stronghold of Congress. BJP has smartly allied with regional parties as coalition partners and already formed governments in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur. The formation of North-East Democratic alliance (NEDA) has helped BJP find wider acceptability in the region.
The global political trend is also against liberal progressive secularism of Left which has been exhibited in the victory of Donald Trump in the USA and Brexit, to name a few. In India too, majority of voters seemed to have denounced appeasement politics in the name of secularism and shown trust in the capabilities of Narendra Modi.
At the home front, a careful analysis of the entire political scenario would suggest that the visible change in the Indian political vault has not happened abruptly in a day. It is the result of many factors, prominent being the hard work of many years of numerous committed workers and well-wishers of BJP and the sizable shrinking of Congress and socialist parties. The emergence of social media and expansion of mainstream media have provided BJP with required platforms to reach out to voters and voice its narrative and opinion. The monster image of BJP, RSS and Modi created by sections of Left-Centre dominated media is getting faded.
At present, the favourable eco-system, combined with the unequalled strong personality of Narendra Modi and the trust gained by BJP together have become an indomitable and irrevocable political force. BJP must take advantage of it in strengthening itself in extreme South (Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telengana) and North-East (Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram). This eco-system has also provided BJP with the huge opportunity to work for Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas and Ek Bharat, Shreshtha Bharat. It is also a prospect for BJP to take radical steps for the progress of the country, as it took on surgical strikes, demonetisation and in the selection of the Chief Minister for Uttar Pradesh. BJP can provide immaculate internal security, no-nonsense foreign policy, and work for the development of each citizen belonging to any community and ethnicity of India. BJP has already performed exquisitely on the governance and development front exhibited in the working of Modi Government during these more than two years.
This Government at the Centre, being in a strong position, has also got an opportunity to conduct and perform as a truly secular Government if it can get laws like Uniform Civil Code Bill passed. One uniform civil law for all the citizens can be the true secular implementation of the Constitution of India and the robust Government under Modi has the grit and capability to do so. Moreover, appeasement politics has only contributed in keeping the appeased communities backward and isolated. Therefore, the measures for real development of all, including minorities, are the long-term solutions.
The UPA Government at the Centre was burdened under the weight of its everyday unearthed scams but on the contrary, during these two and a half years, Modi Government has provided scam free governance. Corruption has been under control and focus has been on development. BJP must continue the good governance and work for development of all the citizens in the States wherever it is in power.
The talk of proposed Mahagathbandhan of Opposition parties in 2019 does not hold much threat for BJP as such Gathbandhan based on an ad hoc arrangement cannot work as such type of assimilations are against the grain of the individual identities of collaborating groups. Congress as a national party is all-time weak at present and Left has become irrelevant in India too after failure of Communism in most of the Communist countries. For BJP it is a golden opportunity to take the situation in its stride and fill the vacuum to its advantage.
Therefore, the only long term strategy for BJP can be to gain out of the supportive eco-system to strengthen itself further. It is the time and opportunity to consolidate its core voter base and simultaneously reach out to new. This is also the time to convey right message in the most appropriate eco-system so that lotus fully blossoms to its glory.
(The writer teaches at Ram Lal Anand College, University of Delhi. She has authored six books)
