Thiruvananthapuram: Fresh statistical analysis emerging from the recently concluded Kerala Assembly elections indicates a significant shift in the State’s political landscape, with the BJP-led NDA increasing its vote share, while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) suffered a sharp decline amid strong anti-incumbency sentiment.
Using the 2021 Kerala Assembly election as the benchmark, the data shows that the LDF witnessed a steep erosion in support, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) consolidated gains across the State.
The BJP-led NDA too registered a notable increase in vote share compared to the previous Assembly polls.
The CPI(M)’s individual vote share dropped from 25.12 per cent in 2021 to 21.77 per cent in 2026.
More significantly, the overall LDF vote share declined from 45.33 per cent to 32.48 per cent, reflecting a nearly 13 per cent fall.
In contrast, the Congress improved its vote share from 25.12 per cent to 28.79 per cent.
NDA
BJP : 2,466,178 (11.42%)
Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) : 653,399
Total : 3,119,577 (14.43 %)
The overall UDF vote share rose from 39.47 per cent in 2021 to 45.71 per cent in the latest election, helping the front secure a decisive electoral advantage.
The NDA, led by the BJP, also expanded its electoral footprint. The alliance’s vote share increased from 12.41 per cent in 2021 to 14.43 per cent in 2026, while the BJP alone secured 11.42 per cent of the total votes polled.
According to the Election Commission data, the total electorate in Kerala stood at 2,71,42,952, while total votes polled were 2,16,15,785.
UDF Emerges Strongest Bloc
The UDF secured a combined vote share of 45.71 per cent.
The Congress emerged as the single largest contributor with 62,17,918 votes, accounting for 28.79 per cent of total votes polled.
The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) contributed 11.01 per cent with 23,78,053 votes.
Kerala Congress added 2.43 per cent, while the RSP secured 1.21 per cent.
Smaller allies and independents further strengthened the coalition tally.
UDF
Congress : 62,17,918 (28.79%)
Muslim League : 23,78,053 (11.01%)
Kerala Congress : 5,25,323 (2.43%)
RSP : 2,61,551 (1.21%)
RMP : 70,117
Kerala Congress (J) : 89,551
CMP : 45,586
Independents : 293,962
Total : 9,38,2061 (45.71%)
LDF Suffers Heavy Setback
The LDF’s overall vote tally stood at 70,22,203 votes, translating into a 32.48 per cent vote share.
CPI(M) secured 47,00,662 votes, while CPI polled 14,34,524 votes.
Smaller allies including RJD, Kerala Congress (M), and NCP added marginal support.
CPM : 4,700,662 (21.77%)
CPI : 1,434,524 (6.64%)
RJD : 178,051
Kerala Congress (M) : 561,167
NCP : 147,799
Total : 7,022,203 (32.48%)
NDA Expands Presence
The BJP secured 24,66,178 votes and won three seats, while the NDA’s combined tally, including BDJS and Twenty20 support base, crossed 31 lakh votes.
The alliance’s overall vote share reached 14.43 per cent, marking an increase over the previous Assembly election.
Performance of Political Parties
Election Commission figures show that out of 883 candidates who contested the election, 140 emerged victorious, while 563 candidates forfeited their deposits.
Among national parties:
Congress contested 92 seats and won 63.
CPI(M) contested 77 seats and won 26.
BJP contested 98 seats and won 3 seats.
BSP and AAAP failed to open their accounts.
Among State parties:
IUML won 22 out of 26 seats contested.
CPI won 8 seats.
Kerala Congress won 7 seats.
RSP secured 3 seats.
Among registered unrecognised parties, CMPKSC, KEC(J), and RMPOI won one seat each. Independents secured four seats.
The analysis uses the 2021 Assembly election as the comparison benchmark, excluding the 2024 Lok Sabha election and the 2025 Local Self Government polls, as voting patterns in Kerala differ substantially between parliamentary, Assembly, and local body elections.
