In 2021, DMK made hundreds of promises, projected MK Stalin as a competent leader who would rescue the state from the 10-year misrule of AIADMK, and portrayed the then Chief Minister, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, as a weak puppet in the hands of the BJP. Added to that were emotive issues like the NEET ban, failure to build even a brick at AIIMS Madurai, and the Sterlite shooting ordered by the then CM.
Stalin was also seen as a coalition builder since he had built a rainbow coalition of secular parties like Congress, Communists, Dalit outfits & smaller sub-regional players. The expectation was that the DMK-led alliance would crush the AIADMK-led NDA and would easily go past the 200+ mark out of the 234 seats. But when the results came, the difference between DMK & AIADMK was just 4%, and the difference between the two alliances was only 5%. This was in spite of 10 years of the AIADMK Government and the absence of a charismatic leader like J. Jayalalithaa. In fact, EPS ensured that AIADMK got better numbers in 2021 than J. Jayalalithaa did in 2006, after her 5 years in power. While AIADMK won 66 seats in 2021, the NDA won 75 seats. In 2006, AIADMK won 61 seats, and the alliance won 69.
EPS gained credibility amongst his partymen based on that performance, which is why, when O. Paneerselvam, the former Chief Minister, revolted, most of the district secretaries chose to stay with EPS, and he became the party’s General Secretary in 2022.
The last 5 years of DMK Government saw some real welfare measures like free bus ride to women, Rupees One Thousand being deposited in around 1.2 crore accounts from September 2023 till January 2026, doorstep healthcare delivery, providing breakfast for school students, financial assistance of One Thousand for girl students & skill development program for youth. While these were the achievements several of the promises that DMK gave were not fulfilled like ban on NEET exams, reduction of diesel price, Rupees One hundred subsidy for LPG per month, student loan waiver, monthly electricity bills instead of bimonthly (this could have saved the user bills by few thousands), restoration of old pension scheme, failed to establish Kalingar canteens), an Horticulture university at Krishnagiri and Agricultural university at Madurai are still only on paper. There have been several unfulfilled promises by the DMK Government.
DMK also stopped several schemes which were functional during AIADMK regime like the sentimental giving gold for mangalasutra to poor women during their wedding, providing laptops for students (DMK did give to a small of number of people at fag end of the regime but realized that it was for votes) & several Amma canteens which provided extremely affordable food were closed & the list is too big.
While a challenger is judged on their promises, the incumbent is measured on the delivery of those promises; hence, the DMK would have to answer many uncomfortable questions from the public.
But the real issues go far beyond the promises and execution and they are the Farmers Anger, increasing drug culture (Cannabis is available freely even near educational institutions), people becoming addicted to TASMC liquor shops, worsening law & order, lack of women safety with several sexual abuses being reported from different parts of the state, custodial deaths, sharp increase in prices of essential commodities and also increase in utilities bill and failure to conduct to conduct TNPSC exams which led to the depression of lakhs of students and youth.
When the author travelled to different parts of the state, meeting the farmers, what was evident was that farmers are exasperated with the measures of the DMK Government, with several DMK partymen coming off camera to say that they are not voting for DMK this time and would prefer to vote for AIADMK since they see EPS as a farmer-friendly person who understands their pain and sufferings.
During the AIADMK government led by Jayalalithaa and EPS, farmers were compensated with Rupees Twenty-Five Thousand to Thirty Thousand per acre for crop losses, whereas this government gave only Rupees One Thousand per acre for such losses. Farmers around the Cauvery Delta region are extremely annoyed with the paddy procurement policies of Stalin’s government. They also cite that during the previous AIADMK regime, desilting of water bodies was done at warp speed, while under DMK’s administration, water management was abysmal. Farmers in the Kongu region also note the implementation of Atthikadavu-Avinashi scheme has a major achievement which brought water to the fields. Hence for the first time in the history of Tamil Nadu elections the incumbent is going to face wrath of the agrarian community.
The entry of film star Vijay is another major headache for DMK. Vijay is having huge traction in the urban pockets of the state with youth and women clamoring for him. DMK has always been a party with strong support base in the urban areas and those core voters of DMK are moving lock, stock and barrel towards TVK. Vijay is attracting Dalit & minority votes who stood like Rock of Gibraltar with DMK ever since the demise of Jayalalithaa in 2016. Stalin has been vociferous on his anti-Modi stance and he harvested those votes in 2019, 2021 & 2024 and they also now have a new option in TVK.
Hence DMK is facing collateral damage amongst rural voters who are going with AIADMK and TVK dividing the urban votes. DMK’s woes doesn’t end here. For the first time in the last 9 years cracks have appeared within the DMK alliance. Stalin was the only political leader who announced Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Minister candidate in 2019 even without Congress officially announcing the same. DMK were under the impression that Congress would be an amiable ally and would settle for the same numbers as in 2021 which was 25 seats. Ever since December 2025 section of Congress MP’s like Manikam Tagore, Jothimani, Praveen Chakravarthy and many others who are considered close to Rahul Gandhi were demanding share in power, place in state’s cabinet, Mayor & Chairman posts in Local Bodies & etc. These constant demands irritated Stalin to a large extent which made him to sign a deal with DMDK (a party which got just 0.40% votes in 2021). Congress kept demanding all these since a new option in the form of TVK was available and many Congress leaders felt that aligning with TVK would be a better option since the anti-incumbency against DMK Government was getting higher. TVK had also offered a share in power to the parties that accept Vijay as the CM candidate.
It took none less than Sonia Gandhi to ask former Union Minister P. Chidambaram to negotiate with Stalin and sign the deal for 28 seats and one Rajya Sabha seat. Even after the conclusion of the candidate selection by DMK the friction between Congress MP’s and DMK are openly out in the social media. This suggests that all may go well between the two parties on the ground. Bringing DMDK into the alliance and giving them 10 seats has certainly irked the alliance partners like Left parties and VCK the Dalit party since both the Left parties have been given a seat less than what they contested in 2021. VCK is also not happy in the seats that they have got.
Most of the elections in Tamil Nadu are won based on the strength of alliances. AIADMK have two Force Multipliers in the BJP and the PMK, while DMK has one Force Multiplier in the Congress party. BJP got more than 11% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and PMK polled nearly 5% or 23,00,000 votes in 2016 when they went solo. PMK has an average vote share of 13.44% across 71 constituencies in the Northern region and parts of the Delta region, where they can effectively transfer their votes to alliance partners. AIADMK is all set to gain from PMK. While BJP is expected to help the alliance at Kongu and Southern regions. In return, AIADMK is expected to help PMK & BJP to win seats.
The Congress party’s strength lies in the Southern region, but fissures within the alliance may not translate into seamless vote transfer. The pusher in AIADMK is the AMMK, while the DMK has 3 pushers in the CPI, CPIM, and VCK. The extent to which the pushers help will determine the fate of DMK. In numerical terms, DMK has more parties, but the NDA has more powerful alliance partners. The rest of the parties are only fillers who bring their caste votes to the alliance.
TVK suffers the most in this area. Despite offering a share in power, none of the parties has touched TVK, not even with a bargepole. There is a massive fan base, but whether that support translates into votes and, in turn, seats is a billion-dollar question, since the party lacks the infrastructure needed to win an election.
Despite several hurdles, DMK is confident because of the organisational might it possesses and the political stalwarts at its disposal. DMK is expected to put up a tough fight in several of its strongholds, and they also have the government machinery at their disposal. DMK’s biggest asset is its ability to create a perception, and they have been successful in making it seem that they are winning. DMK thrives on optics and fails badly when it comes to performance quotient.
NDA would be betting on the angry farmer, while DMK would be confident based on the money and muscle power, and TVK would bank on the stardom of Vijay and the love of his fans. We need to see if Anger can dislodge the DMK government like what we saw at Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh & Delhi.
Bangla Battle is a battle between Anger & Fear. The anger on the streets is visible but at the same time people are afraid and are afraid to the extent many people are refusing to even disclose their choice. The gory scenes post elections of May 2021 remain as a stark remainder to people.
TMC is suffering from a severe triple term anti-incumbency which should reflect in the verdict. This anger is a direct result of the following main points:
· Distress amongst Potato Farmers
The potato farmers at West Bengal are in a deep state of distress due to the bumper harvest in 2026. This has led to a sharp decline in prices. If paddy procurement was a major point of concern in Tamil Nadu, it is the inadequate procurement from the TMC Government which has made the farmers extremely angry at Mamata Didi. What is more surprising is that the administration is apathetic about the current situation. Farmers were expecting the government to open the borders so they could sell their potatoes in other states like Odisha, where there could be strong demand, but the inter-state restrictions have not been lifted. Extraordinary situations demand innovative solutions, but the government of the day is not thinking on its feet. Inadequate storage space and insufficient cold storage are forcing farmers to dump at below-market rates, causing a severe financial crisis. The districts severely affected due to this distress are Hooghly, Bardhaman & Paschim Medinipur. BJP is able to take advantage in some of these constituencies where they have the organisational strength.
West Bengal was home to many business houses in the past, but the Left rule from 1977 onwards saw many major players exit Kolkata and West Bengal. During Budhadeb Bhattacharya’s rule, Tata Motors was keen on setting up the factory, and Mamata spearheaded a 26-day hunger strike protesting the land acquisition from farmers, which garnered nationwide attention. Tata Motors abandoned the move to set up the factory at Singur and decided to move to Gujarat. This protest catapulted Mamata into a pan-Bangla leader, and also the swift move by the then Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to allot land for Tatas to set up the factory at Sanand in Gujarat earned accolades for the then Gujarat CM as Vikas Purush. In fact, a series of such developments helped Modi to create the Gujarat Model for Development.
Bengal has not been able to attract investment over the last 15 years of TMC rule, and this lack of industrialisation has badly hurt the state. Without major development, the people of Bengal have been suffering from unemployment, which has led to large-scale migration of educated people. Those who remain in Bengal do suffer from unemployment, and Mamata Didi has had nothing significant to address it. This issue is likely to affect her in the 2026 elections.
Another major issue has been the infiltration problem from Bangladesh. Infiltration in Bengal occurs across the 2,216 kilometres of the porous India-Bangladesh border, which has raised major security concerns, and the demography of districts like Malda and Murshidabad has undergone drastic changes. There have been serious efforts by the Central Government to fence the borders, but that has not stopped illegal infiltration. Critics have pointed out that local TMC functionaries have been aiding illegal infiltration. For years, the sections of the ‘Bangla Bhadralok’ community who support Mamata Banerji have turned Nelson’s Eye towards this issue. In fact, many of them either defend her policies or turn a Nelson’s Eye towards the issue of illegal infiltration. It is this section of the Bhadralok community that has been influencing many people in support of TMC.
In the last 15 years, corruption has been institutionalised in West Bengal. A prime example of that was in the Teachers’ Scam Case. Everyone saw in broad daylight the seizure of Rupees Fifty Crore in cash and 5 kg of Gold from Partha Chatterjee & his aide Arpita Mukherjee’s house in 2022. Partha Chatterjee has been disowned by TMC after the scam, but he was the most powerful Minister in Mamata Banerji’s cabinet and was Number 2 in the party till he was caught red-handed. The TMC party has been synonymous with scams ranging from the Teachers Recruitment scam to the Cattle & Coal smuggling to the Ration scam to the Saradha Chits scam. BJP calls them Cut Money & Syndicate Raj. Bengalis have been tired of these scams, and if the polls are held in a free and fair manner, there is every reason for people to vote out the TMC.
People are vexed with the local violence that is often played out in the streets of Bengal. There are several victims of the post-2021 elections violence, where even women were raped and killed. People are also angry with the media since the local media houses are hand in glove with the perpetrators of this crime. BJP workers have borne the brunt, but they are waiting to answer through the EVMs, and they would need assurance that they would be protected. On April 2nd 2026, even the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court took suo motu cognisance of alleged violence and misconduct against judicial officers engaged in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Malda district, raising serious concerns over administrative lapses and law & order. If the judicial officers don’t have protection, we can understand the fear levels among voters.
People are slowly realising that one of the reasons for the magnitude of violence is the Muslim appeasement politics of Mamata Banerji. Didi, who claims to be the protector of women, has remained tight-lipped when unprecedented attacks on women have been unleashed. More often than not, it has been this appeasement politics that has led to illegal immigration, which in turn has turned out to be the cause for violence and an insecure atmosphere.
When we look at all the above-mentioned points, it is clear that TMC will lose this election badly, but unfortunately, Didi is still in the game because she has a solid Muslim vote bank that votes for her due to the very same negative points we mentioned. She has cultivated a Pan Bangla face, which makes her popular. There are also several seats where the demographics are completely against the BJP.
If the BJP is able to crack the Kolkata Presidency, then anything could be possible. For the sake of Bengalis, one should hope that the Saffron Party can breach the TMC Bastion. If that happens, Jan Sangh founder Shyama Prasad Mukherji would be smiling from the heavens. It was on a Jan Sangh ticket that he won from the Calcutta South seat in the 1952 Lok Sabha elections.
X Factors in 2026:
The following are the factors that can turn this election on its head:
- SIR
We need to know if the clean-up of the electoral rolls has been done with 100% effectiveness.
- Violence-free elections & efficiency of ECI
There are signs this is possible, particularly after the Home Minister said he would personally stay in Bengal for more than 15 days.
- Hindu consolidation
This needs to happen quietly, through word of mouth.
- Fear versus Anger
If ECI & Security forces provide protection to the voter, we can expect the anger to vent, which would ensure that Didi becomes history in Bangla politics.
- Not repeating the mistakes of 2021
BJP has been meticulous in ensuring that they don’t repeat the mistakes of 2021, where they gave tickets to several turncoats. Lots of local Karyakartas have been given opportunities in 2026. They ran a high-decibel campaign in 2021, while in 2026, their campaign is more grounded.
All is not lost for the BJP in West Bengal, but to win over here, the BJP would need to make the voters secure and give them the confidence that the fiasco of 2021 would not be repeated.
