With the exit of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru from Japan’s political scene, apprehensions are being voiced in a section of the international public spectrum that his idea of creating an “Asian North Atlantic Treaty Organisation” might die down. One, however, thinks post-Ishiba Japan is likely to push forward its “Asian NATO” agenda.
Observers say it is hard to say at the moment who the successor of Prime Minister Ishiba would be in Tokyo and if he or she would be stable enough. The distrust of the people in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been profound since the money scandal plagued it a few years ago. However, there has been a near consensus across the Japanese political spectrum to advance its policy of attaining credible deterrence.
Japan’s international profile has changed a lot in the recent years. The pacifist norms no longer influence its political institutions the way they did in the past. Japan has emerged as an economic power. It has developed a new model of techno-nationalist economic growth. Japan today is behaviourally a realist of the mercantilist order. It is all set to develop into a commensurate nuclear weapon power.
The observers say Japan’s idea of the Asian NATO is linked with the strategic thinking of its legendary Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. His administration reinterpreted the Constitution so as to allow itself the right to collective self-defence. The Japanese Self-Defence Forces can now fight back, even if the attack is on a country Japan is close to.
Abe understood early on that China needs to be countered in order to ensure “a free and open Indo-Pacific.” For this, Tokyo must cultivate multiple ties with countries around the world. In order to accomplish his objectives in the region, Abe came forward with his “Confluence of the Two Seas” speech to the Indian Parliament in August 2007. Therein, Abe made a case to connect the Pacific and Indian Oceans through an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity.” This led to the formation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.
The successive Japanese administrations have sought to advance Abe’s ideas. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet approved the “Three Security Documents.” It increased the defence budget to 2 per cent of the gross domestic product.
The Ishiba administration, too, carried forward Abe’s ideas. Last year, Ishiba contributed a piece to the Hudson Institute, a famous US think tank. Therein, he argued for “an Asian version of NATO” to “deter China.” Ishiba took cognisance of then US President Joe Biden’s words in the wake of the Ukraine crisis– “Ukraine is not a member of NATO, there are no obligations to defend it. The US will not use military force.”
Given this background, the observers say, Japan may rather initiate hard in the near future to engage India, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, and the United States and bring them aboard the Asian NATO forum. The countries in the region are likely to be receptive to Japan’s idea. They all perceive a threat from the dragon in one of the other forms. They may initiate a collective defence Pact and develop the right kind of weapons and operational concepts.
Japan would do well not to be complacent on the front of developing deterrence against China. It does have a security treaty with the USA. It also has quasi-alliance relationships with Canada, Australia, the Philippines, India, France, and the United Kingdom. But nothing could be as effective a deterrent against China as an Asian NATO.
