After 13 years at the helm, the rule of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) autocrat Xi Jinping appears to be reaching a turning point. Recent developments, including an unusual Politburo meeting held on June 30, have prompted widespread speculation that Xi is preparing to transfer power. According to China’s official news agency Xinhua, the Politburo discussed crucial changes to party institutional functions, a move many experts interpret as a sign of impending transition.
Xi Vanishes from Spotlight: Health Concerns and Power Struggle Fuel Exit Rumours
Reports from within China indicate that Xi’s influence is steadily eroding. Notably, the Chinese president has not appeared in public for more than two weeks, fuelling speculation about his health. His absence from the ongoing BRICS summit marks the first time in 12 years that a Chinese president has skipped the event. In his stead, Premier Li Keqiang has assumed high-level responsibilities.
Rumours abound that Xi, hailed as the most powerful autocrat since Mao Zedong, is losing his grip on power. There are claims that a faction loyal to former president Hu Jintao has taken control of key party apparatuses and is preparing to install a new leader. Some attribute the transition to Xi’s worsening health, while others suggest an intensifying internal power struggle.
Observers point to Xi’s prolonged absence from state events and diplomatic meetings as a key indicator of his decline. From late May to early June, he did not meet any visiting foreign leaders and reappeared only during the visit of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. When he finally emerged, his appearance lacked the usual fanfare, a scaled-down security team, no red carpet, and a modest venue resembling an ordinary middle-class home. Compared to the extravagant banquets hosted by other party leaders, Xi’s reception seemed conspicuously subdued.
Military Purge and Power Shift Inside the Party
The most compelling signs of a major shift come from within the Chinese military. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has witnessed an extensive purge, targeting officials once considered loyal to Xi. A majority of the top generals appointed under his watch have either been dismissed, imprisoned, or mysteriously disappeared. Among them is General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and a close ally of Hu Jintao. His name was recently removed from the massive mausoleum Xi had built for his father, symbolically erasing past alliances.
The silence of state media on Xi’s recent absences and the fate of military figures further suggests a deeper political shake-up. General He Weidong, another key CMC figure, has been missing since March 25. Meanwhile, General He Hongjun reportedly died by suicide, and unconfirmed reports on social media platforms claim that as many as 39 senior officers, including three admirals, have been purged. Shockingly, many of those removed were considered Xi’s own appointees, raising questions about whether his former supporters have turned against him.
This apparent reversal has elevated figures like Zhang Youxia, who once helped Xi secure his third term, to the role of possible kingmaker. Youxia, now reportedly at odds with Xi, may play a central role in selecting China’s next leader. Among the names being discussed is Wang Yang, a reformist technocrat and former PSC member associated with the Communist Youth League. Promoted earlier by Deng Xiaoping, Wang was sidelined by Xi in 2023, a move now possibly being reversed by the Hu-aligned faction.
Economic Woes, Elite Exodus and Political Isolation
Internal dissatisfaction with Xi’s leadership is not limited to the military. Political analysts believe senior party leaders have grown increasingly frustrated with China’s economic slowdown and its worsening international isolation. At a Politburo meeting in May, retired leaders including Hu Jintao reportedly issued a list of 12 accusations against Xi and demanded his resignation. These events are believed to be connected to a possible leadership transition during the Fourth Plenary Session scheduled for late August or at the 21st Party Congress.
China’s economy is struggling. GDP growth is forecast to slow to 4.9 per cent in 2024, while youth unemployment has reached alarming levels, estimated to be around 15 per cent. The property market crisis has left millions of apartments vacant. China’s debt has surged to $50 trillion, and disillusioned elites are moving their assets and families abroad. Such economic and social instability is compounding the political pressure on Xi.
Xi’s centralisation of power, initiated after his rise to General Secretary in 2012, dismantled Deng Xiaoping’s model of collective leadership. Through an anti-corruption campaign, Xi removed potential rivals like Zhou Yongkang, Xu Caihou, and Guo Boxiong. In 2018, he eliminated presidential term limits, positioning himself for indefinite rule. His dominance was cemented during the 20th Party Congress in 2022, where he secured a third term and packed the Politburo Standing Committee with loyalists.
That same congress saw the dramatic and public ejection of Hu Jintao from the meeting hall, a symbolic act that once reinforced Xi’s supremacy. Today, however, it is Xi who appears increasingly cornered.
Whether Xi can mount a comeback or is on the brink of being overthrown remains unclear. But one thing is certain: the once-unshakable power of China’s most assertive modern autocrat is showing deep and visible cracks.
