Bye-elections are being called on five Assembly seats in four States of the country on June 19. Two of these seats are from Gujarat, one each from Punjab, Kerala and West Bengal. The bypolls of the five Assembly seats are going to be crucial as in West Bengal and in Kerala Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in 2026. The Congress party has nothing to lose in these by-elections as the Congress party drew blank on these seats during the Assembly polls in these respective States.
In the Assembly by-polls on these five seats the Congress party has a tough task of maintaining its performance on these seats of the Assembly polls. The task for the Congress party to maintain its performance of the previous poll is not very tough as on two seats of Kaliganj in West Bengal and Visavadar assembly seat in Gujarat the Congress party deposit was forfeited.
The biggest problem for the Congress party in the entire country is that when the vote bank of the party splits on any seat or in any State/UT due to the entry of any new party or any other reason, the party’s vote share plummets to the lowest level. The Congress party won Visavadar Assembly seat in the 2014 by-election and during the 2017 Assembly elections, but in the 2022 Assembly elections, it failed to save even its deposit due to the candidature of the Aam Aadmi Party on the seat. In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress party got 54.69 percent votes on Visavadar AC but in 2022, due to the AAP, not only the Congress party failed to come into the main contest on the seat, but also lost its deposit. In the 2016 Assembly elections on the Kaliganj Assembly seat of West Bengal, the Congress party won the seat by garnering 45.65 percent votes, but in the 2021 Assembly elections, the Congress party came on third spot on this seat and could not even save its deposit.
The biggest challenge for the Congress party in the upcoming by-elections of these five Assembly seats is to maintain its vote tally of the 232355 votes received on all these seats, which was 27.43 percent of the votes cast on these seats.
It’s a common phenomenon for the Congress party that whenever the vote of the Congress party breaks in any State or even on any seat, the party goes to the margins. Due to these reasons, the Congress party currently does not have even a single MLA in five States or UT. These States and the UT are Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Nagaland and Sikkim. The Congress party had a very strong base in Delhi during the tenure of Sheila Dikshit and in Andhra Pradesh during the late YSR period till just a few years ago.
The Congress party, which registered a big victory in three consecutive elections in NCT of Delhi from 1998 to 2013, is not even able to open its account in the last three Assembly and in three Lok Sabha elections in Delhi. In the Assembly elections in Delhi, the Congress party was able to save its deposit in the last two Assembly elections on just 3 seats. In Andhra Pradesh, during the time of late Rajashekhar Reddy, the Congress party was at the top, but like Delhi, the Congress party was not able to open its account in the last two Assembly and Lok Sabha elections here as well. The Congress party is able to save its deposit on just one seat by contesting on 158 ACs in the 2024 Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh.
The Congress party was at the second spot in the last election on Nilambur Assembly seat of Kerala. But this time, the situation of the Congress party in Nilambur Assembly seat is similar to that of Visavadar Assembly seat in Gujarat as in 2022. With the by-election of Nilambur Assembly seat, Mamata Banerjee’s the All India Trinamool Congress Party is moving towards making a strong political beginning in Kerala. For the first time in Kerala, a four-cornered election is being witnessed in this seat as the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front, the Congress Party-led United Democratic Front, the Trinamool Congress and the BJP-led NDA are going to contest the elections. The increasing role of the Trinamool Congress in Kerala politics is going to be a big challenge for the Congress Party-led United Democratic Front.
The first attempt of the Trinamool Congress will be to strengthen itself by getting the Muslim voters in Kerala on its side. Till now, the Muslim community has been voting for the Congress Party-led United Democratic Front due to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). But for the first time, Mamata Banerjee’s party is now challenging the UDF hold on the Muslim vote bank in Kerala. During Nilambur Assembly by-election, the NDA is looking further to expand its growing support base of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and will directly challenge the CPI(M)-led LDF for power in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections by completely sidelining the Congress Party-led United Democratic Front. In the 2018 Tripura Assembly elections, the BJP had formed the government by defeating the CPI(M) by sidelining the Congress Party. The BJP-led NDA seems to be repeating the Tripura episode in Kerala in 2026.
