India’s birth rate is declining rapidly, and it’s time to move away from population control policies, says Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. In a post on X, he warned that the real issue now is demographic decline.
My interview in today's Mint where I argue that India's total fertility rate of 1.9 is well below replacement rate – and without UP and Bihar would be even lower. Since this rate is likely to keep falling with urbanisation and prosperity, it is time to shut down all population… pic.twitter.com/dYSn5bst16
— Sanjeev Sanyal (@sanjeevsanyal) June 14, 2025
India’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1. “Without Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, we’d be well below the replacement rate,” Sanyal said. “Even now, we’re already under that threshold, and the situation would be far more severe without those states. This is a serious national concern that demands urgent attention.”
India has entered a phase of demographic slowdown, with the number of annual births having peaked nearly 15 years ago, according to Sanjeev Sanyal.
“Bringing up school closures often sparks emotional reactions,” Sanyal noted. “But the fact is that in many parts of the country—now more than half—there just aren’t enough children to keep schools running effectively. Class sizes are shrinking, and resources are being stretched thin.”
Despite the declining birth rates, population control mechanisms are still in place. “Oddly, we continue to have departments dedicated to population control,” Sanyal observed. “These are outdated and should be dismantled—even in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Birth rates are falling in those states as well, and we’re increasingly dependent on them to maintain a balanced national fertility rate.”
Sanyal cautions that India is entering a demographic transition similar to that faced by countries like China, Japan, and South Korea, where ageing populations and shrinking workforces have led to prolonged economic challenges.
He argues that the message is clear: India’s population control programs are outdated relics. In a country where schools are shutting down due to fewer children—not overcrowding—these policies may soon become more of a burden than a benefit.
