When US forces killed Abu Bakr-al Baghdadi under Donald Trump’s first administration, many would have thought that the outfit would die a natural death. This analysis was on expected lines since the Al-Qaeda never managed to recover following the death of Osama Bin Laden.
If one were to now assess the Islamic State, it appears to be much stronger today when compared to what it was under the leadership of Baghdadi. Intelligence agencies from across the globe have been working together on the Islamic State and a comprehensive analysis suggests that the outfit is stronger than ever and today it is managing to achieve global aspirations.
What changed for the Islamic State
When Baghdadi was in charge, he limited operations only to Iraq and Syria. However when the outfit was beaten down, Baghdadi did make a strong pitch for global operations. He ordered all the foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria to return to their homeland and run the outfit from there.
While this call by Baghdadi may have not given the Islamic State operational strength, it did however ensure that the propaganda of the outfit and its radical thought had reached each and every corner of the world. Following this began the spate of lone wolf attacks by hardcore Islamic State members. This served as an aspiration for many who had not even joined the outfit. They began reading extensively the material posted by the Islamic State and were self-radicalised.
This strategy which Baghdadi had planned seemed to pay off as the Islamic State name remained intact and these lone wolf terror attacks were cost effective yet impactful.
Since 2017, the Islamic State has only indulged in spreading propaganda. It did not use any resources on building resources on the ground like it did in Iraq or Syria. It ran minimal operations on the ground, while focusing heavily on propaganda. The Islamic State realised that the most lethal fighters are the ones who are highly radicalised and believe in the cause.
With the sole focus on propaganda, the set up media outlets which would print propaganda material and then circulate it online. It realised the importance of every country. It felt that the thought process of the people vary and hence it had region specific magazines. It even has a separate media outlet for India. However the message across regions is the same and that is the establishment of the Islamic Caliphate.
Strong on the ground
While nearly three to four years was spent on enhancing propaganda, the Islamic State also realised that it also needed a strong ground force. This became important since a Caliphate can be declared only if the outfit had substantial presence on the ground.
The first major rebuilding exercise on the ground took place in Afghanistan. The Islamic State Khorasan Province was established. It took on the Taliban and has conducted several attacks. It started off slowly, but eventually it gained when the Taliban and Pakistan became warring factions. To tame the Taliban, the ISI backed the Islamic State Khorasan heavily. In quick time, it went on to become a lethal outfit leading even the United Nations to brand them as one of the most dangerous terrorist groupings in the world.
While the Islamic State was building ground in Afghanistan, on the other hand, it had been enhancing capabilities in Somalia. A report by the United Nations Sanctions Monitoring Team based on UN member state Intelligence said there is growing confidence that the Islamic State’s Caliph today is Abdul Qadir Mumin. He is the current head of the branch in Somalia.
Mumin had been elevated to lead the Islamic Tate’s general directorate of provinces and this gave him control over the outfit’s African affiliates.
The Islamic State’s decision to move to Somalia and hold fort in several nations was a key rebuilding strategy. It was quick to adopt to the ground realities in Syria and Iraq and hence moved to place that were more advantageous. The report said that it ay signify a deliberate pivot towards a more decentralised operational structure, further from the core conflict zone.
However many do not rule out the possibility of the Islamic State completely giving up its hold in Iraq and Syria. When the ship steadies, they may make efforts to take back lost territory in these two countries.
Survival is key
The manner in which the Islamic State has been operating today and its choice of leadership suggests that it is ready to move from its core values in the interest of survival.
The fact that the outfit is being run by Mumin itself is a departure from the what the Islamic State had professed. The criteria applied for past leaders was that the leader would be by a person who has descended from Prophet Muhammad. However, Mumin does not have that credential.
Since the death of Baghdadi and his successor, the Islamic State has been secretive about revealing the name of its new leader. This is largely to protect him from being targeted. Although it is more of less confirmed that Mumin is the chief, the group hides the identity of its leader suggesting that they are now led by Abu Hafs al Hashimi al-Qureshi. This signifies that he has the required lineage.
Mumin realises that survival is key and it is now time build the outfit and make it stronger. Mumin has been taking steps to minimise the group’s exposure to unwanted attention. He currently has expanded extortion activities in Somalia and the moneys been invested in improving military capabilities which include unmanned drones for both surveillance and suicide attacks.
