The visit of the newly elected Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to India from December 15-17, his first maiden overseas trip has raised hopes of a positive revival between the two neighbours. The visit saw a great amount of warmth and hospitality. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had detailed discussion with the Sri Lankan President and they both addressed the media too. Modi also accepted the invite for a reciprocal visit to Sri Lanka.
The new trajectory of Indo-Sri Lanka relations has to be viewed in the backdrop of the new power structure that has emerged in Sri Lanka. So far India has dealt with the power structure in Sri Lanka which largely had a stated pro India stance, with minor exceptions. In the September 24 Presidential elections, Anura Dissanayake of Janatha Vimukhti Peramuna (JVP) defeated Sajith Premadasa of Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), who has been the leader of opposition. The party of 56-year-old Dissanayake also swept to power with a thumping majority in the Sri Lankan parliamentary elections held in November this year. Thus, the Left leaning pro-China JVP now has complete control of power in Sri Lanka for the next five years.
In the last five years, Indo-Sri Lanka relations had to face the Chinese challenge. Sri Lanka remains a key destination for China to pursue String of Pearls, in order to dominate the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Remember the lease of strategic Hambantota Port to China for 99 years. Sri Lanka also went through a major economic crisis in the later part of 2021 and then India bailed it out economically with a $ 4 billion aid in the year 2022. That once again swung the relationship in India’s favour, at least for the time being. The outgoing Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe agreed in the year 2023 that Sri Lanka will not permit its territory to be used against India’s security interests. The presence of Chinese maritime ships in the garb of ‘research vessels’ in the vicinity of Sri Lankan maritime boundary has been a cause of major security concern for India.
The bilateral ties between India and Sri Lanka were further strengthened during the current visit. India is the largest trading partner of Sri Lanka and so far, India has extended a $5 billion line of credit to Sri Lanka. The economic ties focus on people to people connect with emphasis on education, health, agriculture, solar energy and digitisation. PM Modi outlined a futuristic vision for the bilateral ties that will bring a new speed and energy to the relationship.
PM Modi said that India and Sri Lanka are working to conclude the Defence Cooperation Agreement. India has insisted on a formal agreement to prevent frequent change in stance with different political ideology in Sri Lanka. Both India and Sri Lanka believe that Colombo Security Conclave is an important platform for regional peace and security in the IOR. Under this, cooperation will be enhanced on issues like maritime security, counter-terrorism, cyber security, anti-narcotics, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. All these issues are important to ensure a peaceful and stable Sri Lanka, so very critical in controlling the IOR.
The only contentious issue perhaps was related to the rights of Tamil minority in Sri Lanka. PM Modi mentioned in his speech that he hoped that Sri Lanka would fulfill its obligation towards the constitution and conduct Provincial Council polls soon. It is worth mentioning that the JVP in the past has been against grant of equal rights to Tamils in Sri Lanka and it had carried out a violent campaign in the nineties. Therefore, how the new government in Sri Lanka treats the Tamils would be carefully monitored in India, particularly in the state of Tamil Nadu. The fishery dispute between the two nations is also a friction point but the diplomacy has been able to handle it well.
The defence cooperation and military to military cooperation between India and Sri Lanka remains strong. India trains the officer cadre and junior leadership of Sri Lankan armed forces in many of its training establishments. During my military career, I rubbed shoulders with many of them. I also trained many of them as an instructor in various training establishments of India. The Sri Lankan officer cadre had special affinity towards me because of my IPKF experience in fighting the dreaded terror outfit LTTE. The present top military leadership has also trained in India and thus we have the added advantage of building a strategic partnership.
The entire neighbourhood of India has seen military intervention in some form or another. Even if we leave Pakistan aside, India has intervened militarily in Bangladesh (1971 Liberation War with Pakistan), Sri Lanka (Indian Peace Keeping Force, 1987-90), Maldives (Operation Cactus, November 1988), Bhutan (Doklam standoff with China in 2017) and with Myanmar (to flush out the terrorists). The only exception is Nepal. But India’s military interventions were based on request or through an accord with the neighbouring country. It once again demonstrates the fragile security architecture in our neighbourhood and the need for India to be militarily strong.
As expected, the Sri Lankan President heads to China for his next foreign tour. The pressure on Mr. Dissanayake would be immense from the Chinese leadership. But now the region and the Sri Lankan leadership would be aware of the economic debt trap mastered by the Chinese. Therefore, the balancing act between India and China would be critical to navigate the relationship in the choppy seas of the IOR. With Bangladesh having drifted away post ouster of Sheikh Hasina regime in August this year, India cannot afford more turbulence in its neighbourhood.
A lot of credit in bringing the Indo-Sri Lankan relations towards a favourable trajectory must go to S Jaishankar, the EAM of India. He not only met Dissanayake this time around but was able to seek an audience with him in the run up to the presidential elections. Therefore, a significant amount of backdoor diplomacy has gone into ensuring that the new regime in Sri Lanka remains committed to the past agreements with India. Indian diplomacy has learnt its lessons from the Maldivian experience, where too we now see a turn around and a more balanced equation towards India and China. So, well begun India, in the new innings with the new dispensation in Sri Lanka.
