The Bangladesh unrest does not show any signs of dying down and this despite the fact that the students did manage to achieve their goal of overthrowing Sheikh Hasina.
A closer look would clearly suggest that this was not a spur of the moment protest. It was planned for over two years with the clear intention that the main objective would be to first overthrow Sheikh Hasina and then indulge in ethnic cleansing of the minorities and the Hindus in particular.
How it began
The planning first began in early 2022 when a batch of students who are part of the Islaimic Chatra Shibir (ICS) made frequent visits to Pakistan. During their meetings that were held at Rawalpindi, Pakistan the discussions were around the protests.
The ISI officials who were part of these discussions laid out a long plan for Bangladesh. The first was to hit the streets in large numbers and then force the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. They were then asked to insist that the caretaker government be headed by Muhammad Yunus, a stooge of the West and a Pakistan sympathiser. The ICS members were told that Yunus would not act against the Islamists and this should give them the freedom to indulge in arson. They were however specifically told to target the Hindus and use this momentum to eradicate as many minorities as possible.
The ICS is the students’ wing of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami.
Following this, they were told to target Hindu Temples and institutions so that learning centres, places of worship do not exist.
In order to undertake a movement of this magnitude, the ICS did not have the sufficient numbers. The ISI assured them that more persons would be sent to be part of the protests. In the run up to the same, the ISI handpicked scores of Muslim youth and asked them to create fake profiles on the social media. These persons with fake profiles were tasked with creating a false narrative in the run up to the protests. There was plenty of disinformation on the social media which led to the movement flaring up and gaining a massive momentum.
Planning at the institutes
For two years, the students who were part of the ICS met at the Dhaka University, Shylet University, Rajshahi University and Jahangir University. Organising meetings in these universities was easy since the the ICS controlled students’ unions had won the elections.
While these meetings took place, many members of the Jamaat made trips to Pakistan and discussed the modus operandi with the ISI. The Jamaat which completely backed the protests was however instructed to watch the same from behind the scenes. The job of the Jamaat was not to hit the streets and be part of the protests. It was told to provide logistic and tactical support while letting the students hit the streets.
The ISI instructed them to make it seem as a purely students’ movement as this would gain more traction and several more students who were unaware of the larger agenda would join in. If members of the Jamaat or the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) were seen, the movement would have looked political. Looking at the history of protests from different parts of the world, the ones led by students have had a better success rate.
India out campaign
When the ISI was planning this protest, it did not just want the ouster of Hasina or targeting of minorities. It had another agenda and that was to hurt all of Bharat’s interests in Bangladesh.
Prior to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, ties between Bharat and Bangladesh was smooth. One of Hasina’s biggest achievements was the economic progress and during her tenure the economy had grown at an average rate of 6.3 per cent per annum. This is among the highest in the world.
Bharat’s export reached a record level of $14 billion in 2021. However it dropped to $11.3 billion in 2023 owing to various factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war which disrupted supply chains. The ongoing unrest in the country is likely to hit trade and in turn this would adversely affect demand for imports from Bharat.
The caretaker government on one hand says that trade with Bharat would not affected. However its actions do not match its words. Bangladesh owes Adani power $800 million. Adani Power supplies 10 per cent of the electricity used by Bangladesh. Now Bangladesh says that it is reviewing the power deals with the Adani group. This does not bode well for ties between the two nations especially when relations were strong all these years.
This is something that the ISI had in mind when it plotted the protests. The main motive was to seek the revenge of liberation and ensure that ties with New Delhi are soured to such an extent that the nation remains cut off from Bharat. However it is the same Islamabad which was better trade ties with Bharat now that its economy is in doldrums. What the Islamic fanatics do not understand that it is just a matter of time that Pakistan would end up doing to Bangladesh, what it did to itself.
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