After the fiasco of the Congress party in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, this round of polls in either Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and the by-polls are an acid test for the Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi. If the Congress party would not be able to perform well in Assembly elections of Jharkhand and Maharashtra besides Assembly bypolls then the role of Rahul Gandhi as LoP will be seriously come under scrutiny ?
After anointment of Rahul Gandhi as LoP in Lok Sabha two Assembly elections of States of Haryana and Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir were held. It was the first test of Rahul Gandhi as LoP in elections. The Congress party failed to make any mark in these two Assembly elections.
The Congress party won 99 seats in LS in 2024 after two successive failures in LS elections in 2014 and 2019. Under the dynamic leadership of Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary as leader of the Congress party in Lok Sabha the Congress party won 99 seats in 2024. But the Congress party played a nefarious game with Chaudhary and engineered his defeat by secretly shaking hands with Mamata Banerjee. This was done in order to increase the role of Rahul Gandhi in Lok Sabha on behalf of the party. If Chaudhary would become an MP then he would be morally bound by the party and largely by Gandhi family to anoint him as LoP.
But after Rahul Gandhi’s becoming LoP the Congress party severely bit the dust in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections. The Congress party contested on 38 seats in alliance with the National Conference but the party won only 6 seats. The Congress party contested on 7 seats against the NC but the party failed to win any of the seats. On these seven seats the Congress party failed to come in direct contest on any of the seats either as winner or the runner. While the NC won 4 of these seven seats. The NC would perform better if it would contest alone.
In the Haryana Assembly election the Congress party has high expectations. But finally the BJP won the Assembly election. The sole aim of the Gandhi family during the Haryana Assembly election was to cut down the size of senior leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Hooda was on way to becoming second Sharad Pawar.
In the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election the Congress party got nearly double the number of seats to contest within the alliance with the National Conference than its strength. Not only had that but the Congress party put candidates on 7 ACs against its ally the NC. Finally, by contesting 38 seats the party won only 6 seats. In Cabinet formation the NC had not even considered the Congress party for negotiation. This happened in spite of the fact that there is a close familiar relation between the Abdullah and Gandhi family for decades and generations.
In the by-polls the Congress party was slapped by its allies in multiple States. In Uttar Pradesh the Samajwadi Party refused to share any Assembly seat out of 9 seats. This happened even when the Congress party leader in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi is representing the State. The stance of the SP was one of the reasons why Rahul Gandhi did not resign Rae Bareli for his sister, sensing whether the SP would support him in by-poll or not.
In West Bengal the Communist parties refused to share seats with the Congress party. The Communist parties have been an important ally in the INDI Alliance since its formation. Now even the Communist parties are in no mood to give any importance to the Congress party and the Gandhi family. In West Bengal the Congress party may try to come close to Mamata Banerjee in this changed political scenario.
In Rajasthan the Congress party with its allies won 11 LS seats. This was a huge win for the Congress party. But the Congress party did not share even the winning seats of its allies with them. Finally all of its allies went on their own in the Assembly by-polls in Rajasthan. In Bihar like Uttar Pradesh the RJD did not give any seat to the Congress party to contest in the by-polls. In Assam too the Congress party did not share any of the seats with any other party.
Not only has that but the Congress party had multiple tasks in the by-polls. The party had the challenge of winning Vav Assembly by-poll in Gujarat. The Congress party won a single LS seat in Gujarat in 2024 after two successive nil in Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat in 2014 and 2019. Vav MLA Thakor Geniben Nagaji won from Banaskantha LS seat in 2024. Now its challenge for the Congress party to retain the seat. Nanded LS by-poll is being held due to demise of the INC MP Vasantrao Balwantrao Chavan. Again its challenge for Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party to win the by-poll to maintain its momentum of the LS election.
The result of Sandur (ST) Assembly by-poll is also important for the Congress party as the MLA from the seat E. Tukaram won from Bellary LS seat in 2024. Bellary LS seat was won by Sonia Gandhi in 1999 but she vacated the seat in favour of Amethi. After that in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 the Congress party lost the seat to the BJP. Now Sandur AC by-poll is also important for the Congress party.
In Punjab too four ACs are going to by-polls and the Congress party won three among these seats in the 2022 Assembly election. Now it’s a tough challenge for the Congress party to maintain its tally in Punjab. Considering the comfortable performance of the Congress party in the Haryana Assembly election the task of the Congress party has increased manifold in Punjab too. In order to keep its political space the Congress party has to repeat its 2022 performance on these 4 ACs by-polls. The BJP is knocking in Punjab to oust the Congress party to become main opponent of the Aam Aadmi Party.
