A cacophonous US election has concluded with a historic return to office for Donald Trump. As the Democrats reflect on what might have been, Trump becomes the first US president in almost 130 years to win non-consecutive terms. With the Republican party also securing a majority in the Senate, the scene is set for a more inward-looking America with broader geopolitical and economic consequences for the rest of the globe.
Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. In the end, the election was not as closely contested as anticipated. The US Supreme Court already has a conservative majority, and this may be strengthened further during the second Trump presidency. Trump will potentially be one of the more powerful US presidents in recent memory with the ability to deliver on his ambitious but contested agenda. This includes radical measures on trade, such as his declared intent to put a 60 per cent tariff on all imports from China and an across-the-board 10-20 per cent tariff on imports from other countries. If he goes ahead with these tariffs, expect trade retaliation, most certainly from China.
In a highly polarised election, Trump was able to cut through a clutch of swing states, including North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Disappointingly for Kamala Harris, she wasn’t able to land a convincing message with the undecided voters. Support from women and the younger demographic turned out to be lower than anticipated. Biden’s poor approval ratings clearly hurt her, and she was unable to set out a differentiated prospectus convincingly. Conversely, Trump was able to rally his base. Other politicians might have been sunk by two impeachments and a convicted felony, but in Trump’s case, it only propelled his supporters with more vigour.
Trump’s success was underpinned by his consistency of message. He continued to draw on his original pitch to “Make America Great Again”. This time around, he also promised to “Make America Affordable Again”. He appealed to the “forgotten majority”, workers across the Rust Belt, putting their concerns uppermost in a battle against Washington insiders. The irony of a billionaire putting forward an anti-establishment prospectus continued to be part of the appeal. Trump was consistent in his aim to reduce immigration, advance a protectionist trade policy and realign foreign policy.
In an age where politicians are notorious for breaking manifesto commitments, Trump looked to act as he promised. Voters relied on evidence from his first term. Recalling his first term, the electorate was aware that Trump took a hard line on immigration, signed executive orders to support domestic products, left the Trans-Pacific Partnership, withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, challenged NATO and exited the Paris climate change accord.
He outlined an “America First” vision where multilateralism was deemed surplus to requirements. Voters were aware that it was also Trump who dared to be muscular with China. It was also during his earlier presidency that there were overtures to North Korea and an entente achieved between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. That said, it was hard to ignore the manifest coarseness that marked Trump’s initial presidency. His strong-man tendencies had more in common with autocrats such as Putin and Orban than a “leader of the free world”.
As allies around the world take stock of this election, they should expect Trump’s second term to be in the same mould. Arguably, he may also advance a more radical agenda to secure his legacy. Trump is likely to expect European allies to pay their fair share of military spending, instead of leaning heavily on America. From a British perspective, the expectation is that Starmer’s administration is likely to emphasise that the “special relationship” between the two nations will endure. However, a Free Trade Agreement still seems somewhat off.
In relation to current conflicts, Trump is unlikely to continue funding Ukraine, but it remains to be seen how the underlying tension is resolved. It also remains to be seen if Trump has the appetite to broker a truce in the Middle East. On the trade policy front, a more protectionist approach will impact China but also risks inflationary pressures. Geopolitically, if America looks to retrench, that may have a push-and-pull impact on the balance of power in East Asia.
What other signals can we read from Trump’s victory? His substantial achievement lies in converting the Republican party from its country club elitism to a mainstream blue-collar party. The other understated facet of Trumpism is that his message of self-reliance, entrepreneurism and liberty has resonated with minority groups that probably felt too shy to say so publicly. It explains his win in Florida, for example, where the Latino community tilted the balance in his favour. Millions of Americans noted that he oversaw record job creation till the global pandemic came along. On the economy, they took to heart his warning that Harris’ plans for raising taxes would constrain innovation and choke off a recovery.
We can say, a victory for Trump signifies the possibility of American exceptionalism as a key organising principle in his second term. Given the current climate of geo-political uncertainty, allies across the globe should take note and recalibrate where necessary. The hope is that Trump can help resolve entrenched conflicts, but the off-setting risk remains an increase in volatility.
