On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump would take oath as the 47th President of the USA, in what can be termed as one of the most keenly anticipated and fiercely campaigned elections. The world waited for the outcome with bated breath because this election was expected to decide the trajectory the US would take for the future with deep ramifications not just for the world but also for itself. However, what was predicted to be a close contest, ended in a near landslide for Trump, in what can be termed as sheer rejection by the US electorate, of Wokeism, illegal immigration, relentless conflicts and their cumulative impact on the US economy, each of which has been exacerbated, fuelled, sponsored and endorsed by policies of Biden administration in the last few years.
Convincing Victory
Even pitching Kamala Harris as potentially not just the first woman President but also the first ‘coloured’ woman Presidential candidate of the US, did not cut much ice with the electorate. The vitriolic fear mongering of ‘Constitution being in danger’, if Trump comes to power, and that it would give rise to ‘dictatorship’, did not help either. In the end Trump had a comfortable win, with Republicans on course to have a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives. The quantum of Trump’s victory also indicates that in spite of vicious efforts to paint him as racist, cutting across the spectrum, people from all sections, and ethnicities voted for him.
Trump’s Resilience Deserves Respect
Irrespective of whether one likes or dislikes Donald Trump, one has to acknowledge and admire the man’s resilience. A self-made billionaire and a former President of the US, Trump could have easily spent the rest of his life in luxury. Instead, he decided to take on a fight against a deeply entrenched elitist cabal with deep pockets and a vicious agenda, so much so that attempts to even bump him off were made. Numerous efforts were made to ensure that he could not even contest the election as a result of indictments. Yet, in the end Trump persisted.
Thorny Road Ahead
The road ahead for Trump would not be an easy one. Implementing his poll promises to his electorate would also mean taking on powerful cabals. Among the most profound of his poll promises was evicting the illegal immigrants from American soil. The Biden administration’s soft corner for immigration, literally institutionalised illegal immigration, will have severe ramifications. Any effort to deport illegal immigrants may have popular support of the masses but there would surely be severe pushback from the lobbies, backed by globalists who have been sponsoring this project.
While there were severe apprehensions of violence in the aftermath of the election result declaration, and which for the time being have been averted due to the scale of Trump’s victory margin, nevertheless the possibility of the US getting mired in major civil unrest in the near future can still not be ruled out.
Can Trump Stop the Ukraine War?
Trump also promised that he can stop the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky for sure was not among the happiest of persons when Trump’s victory became inevitable. In real terms, the war is not between Ukraine and Russia. Instead, it has been an outright NATO versus Russia conflict which could have been avoided from day-one. The obsession of the Biden administration and the gigantic military industrial complex to keep on expanding NATO, and brand Russia, under Putin, as a threat, ensured that Ukraine was used as a proxy for a devastating war that is on the verge of crossing the redlines and becoming a full-fledged European conflict. Ukraine loses the plot and the war, the day taps of weapons supply are shut by the US. European NATO members would just fall in line. What happens to Zelensky and his regime, post that, is anybody’s guess. However, Trump’s stoppage of funding for Ukraine’s war may not result in Putin simultaneously shutting down its special military operations. Russia continues to consider an expansionist NATO as a major threat. How Trump deals with the future of NATO is another major issue to reckon with., In all likelihood, NATO’s future may be under severe stress with Trump at the helm of affairs. Trump for sure would ask NATO members to contribute more towards the NATO budget, which in all likelihood most NATO members would find difficult to oblige. In any case, most of the European states are in severe economic crisis as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict which has raised the prices of several critical commodities, most crucial being that of energy.
Will Trump Focus on Iran?
While Trump may put a lid on the Ukraine funding for the Eastern European conflict, the likelihood of tensions in West Asia receding as a result of Trump in White House, is grim. Trump may not provoke an all-out Israel-Iran war, but he would for sure continue to support Israel in its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah, Houthis and Hamas. The fact that the result of the US Presidential elections led to massive depreciation of the Iranian currency is a testimony of their anxieties that President Trump may put even more pressure on Iran. Given the bonhomie that Trump has with Putin, if Trump ensures a hands-off policy of the US on Ukraine, that may pave the way for Russia to settle the issue on its own terms. Would it then lead to Trump seeking a reciprocation from Putin in terms of backing off from supporting Iran? Only time can tell.
Can Trump Revive American Economy?
On the economic front, Trump does have a lot to deal with. He has spoken about reducing both corporate and income tax rates, while considerably enhancing the tariffs on all ‘important’ imported goods, especially those from China. While tax cuts may have its own benefits, the US economy also suffers from major deficits, which may widen, even as imposing tariffs on imports may have the potential to increase prices of many critical commodities in the US. Overall, Trump would want to incentivise domestic production and increased consumption through tax cuts, while pushing for more protection of the US economy from imports through tariff hikes. In the long run it may yield results in terms of kickstarting major manufacturing back in America again, but not without hiccups in the intermediary period, including the structural challenges that corporates may face in bringing manufacturing back to the US again.
In all likelihood, Trump would attempt to ease tensions of conflicts even while putting more pressure on China and Iran. It appears that his policy would steer around the theory that it is not necessary for the Western economic model to trigger conflicts for greater economic benefits. Peace, prosperity and trade benefits can go hand in hand. While Trump would surely protect the core American interests, including more weapons sales, he also realises, unlike the Democrats, that it is time for the US to be a little more accommodating rather than attempting to continue with global policing. Be it Russia, China, or India, none of them can be wished away, and their respective sphere of influence needs to be respected.
It is also expected that Trump would have a relook at the US culture of indiscriminately imposing sanctions on countries, freezing of forex reserves, weaponisation of SWIFT, each of which is only ensuring more countries making serious efforts to diversify their currency reserve matrix, by gradually reducing dollar exposure, explore alternate payment mechanisms for global interbank transactions, bypassing both dollar and SWIFT, as well as push for alternate multilateral institutional architecture, since there is a near consensus among most non-Western countries that UN is insensitive to aspirations of Global South countries, reluctant to reform, and is literally subservient to the dictums and interest of the Global North. All these have essentially resulted in more focus on forums like BRICS or G20.
What Happens to Bangladesh?
Much like Zelensky, it is highly likely that Md Yunus of Bangladesh must be having sleepless nights henceforth. A long term protégé of the Clintons, who was allegedly handpicked by elements in the Biden administration, to take over the mantle of Bangladesh after the removal of Sheikh Hasina through a soft coup, Yunus, and his Nobel Prize credentials, did not transform him into a more secular person. He has been presiding over a regime, which has remained silent, on the borderline of complicity, in systematic impoverishment, persecution, and hounding of the minority communities of Bangladesh, especially Hindus, being orchestrated by radical extremist organisations, many of which are also part of the Yunus led regime. Trump’s strong statement condemning the inaction of the Biden administration on persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh, may have sent alarm bells ringing in Dhaka. With President Biden about to bid adieu, how long and how effectively Md Yunus can handle pressure and govern the country, or whether he would take a flight out just like he was paradropped, would be interesting to watch.
What Bharat Expects from Trump
Finally, it is important to deal with the issue of Indo-US relations. No one denies that this relation has a chequered history with the US traditionally supporting Pakistan against India for long. However, over the last two and a half decades, this relationship has matured into a strategic partnership. While India has diversified its defence acquisition basket, thereby buying more weapon systems from the US, Washington too has steadily distanced itself from Pakistan, at least on the face of it. In the realm of economic cooperation, India and the US share a deep symbiotic relationship. The Trump era from 2016-2020 witnessed major defence deals being signed or materialised between India and US. Trump was also understanding of India’s concerns when New Delhi acquired S-400 weapon systems from Russia, in spite of threats of CAATSA sanctions. Trump did not sanction India.
The Biden era for India was mixed, rather frustrating. While on defence cooperation some major milestones were crossed, including the creation of Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technology (ICET), the approach of the US State Department, on various issues, has been terrible. India’s refusal to part ways with Russia, after the Ukraine-Russia conflict started, and snub to proposals to give up on its strategic autonomy, resulted in multiple pincer attacks on Modi Government from the US Administration, and its alleged fronts. From thinks-tanks, media and academia, sponsored by certain American Philanthropists known for promoting Woke agenda, projecting Modi Government as ‘majoritarian’ and ‘anti-minority’ without any credible evidence to back such claims, to US Government giving a free hand to secessionist elements, designated as terrorists in India, to threaten Indian establishments and critical infrastructures from American soil, from USICRF using its ‘questionable’ reports to project Modi Government in the most denigrating manner, to foreign NGOs publishing indexes on hunger, democracy and press freedom in the most skewed manner to malign India, the American approach towards India during the Biden era, has been far from encouraging. The stand of the Biden Administration on the Nijjar and Pannu issue has severely dented India’s faith on the integrity of the US-India Strategic Partnership.
Even when India placed faith on American weapon systems, and signed contract with General Electric for supply of F 404-IN20 engines for its Tejas MK 1A fighter jet programs, the delays in delivery has been so profound and devastating that it is on the verge of jeopardising India’s indigenous fighter jet program, so much so that questions have been raised by some experts if the delay is really for supply chain issues, or deliberate, to settle scores with India for its defiant strategic autonomy.
It is a well-known fact that Trump is transactional in his approach. There is no doubt that he would do things to promote American interest, which is perfectly fine. The general support for Trump among most Indians, and perhaps even within the Indian establishment is possibly because Trump, unlike his predecessor, understands that it is in the interest of America to see a stable, strong and progressing India. Therefore, it is expected that Trump may put a lid on the Khalistani elements using American soil to foment anti-India activities and ask Canada to take similar measures. If the policy in Washington changes, Canada would oblige. India, therefore, is looking for Trump to inject integrity in the Indo-US relationship.
Likewise, it is also expected that Trump would not be too kind to the likes of George Soros, the ultra-left mindset, and Wokeism, that the likes of Soros promote, which is having debilitating impact on family values, culture and institutional integrity of the value systems that act as edifice of our societies, without which nothing works. If Trump goes hard on sponsors of Wokeism, it would help PM Modi too, to deal with Urban Naxals in India.
The Trump Modi Era: How will it be?
Trump for sure would do his own share of bargains for American interests. There would be trade-offs and hard negotiations on trade and investments as well. But with Trump at helm, it is expected that India would have less to complain of regime change games that have been attempted in India and its neighbourhood, to destabilise the subcontinent. Also, expect some strong decisions by Modi Government from 2025 onward, because with Trump in Washington, Modi may expect his backing on critical issues.
What happens to Abraham Accord and BRICS?
On a concluding note, it would also be interesting to see if the unfinished agenda of Abraham Accord, disrupted by the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th, would be revived, followed by India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC), which has been stalled by the Middle East tensions. And finally, would Trump’s overtures result in BRICS postponing its intent to have alternate mechanism for international payments? Can Trump revive the declining faith in Dollar and douse the apprehensions over US deep state orchestrating geopolitical tensions to trigger conflicts for its own benefit? Only time can give a clearer picture.
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