“Quad is not against anyone. We all support a rules-based international order, respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and peaceful resolution of all issues.” -PM Modi during the Quad Summit in US
As part of the three-day visit to the United States from September 21-23, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the Quad meet and gave the partnership a new direction. The sixth edition of the Quad Leaders’ Summit was held on September 21 in Wilmington, USA, and the summit was hosted by the outgoing US President Joe Biden. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was joined by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for the historic summit. This summit was also a farewell to Joe Biden and Fumio Kushida before they relinquish office. The visit of Prime Minister Modi to the US after successful diplomatic visits to Russia and Ukraine carries immense weight for peace in the world and in voicing India’s concerns as the natural leader of the Global South. The Quad is here to stay, to assist, to partner and to complement, said the Indian PM during the summit. The Quad is now a powerful voice in the global entity and is on the threshold of going to the next level of partnership.
Quad stands for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. It is diplomatic partnership between India, US, Japan and Australia. As of now, the grouping is called ‘The Quad’ indicating its diplomatic charter and not the security partnership. Post the Tsunami in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, these four countries joined hands to provide disaster assistance and humanitarian relief to the affected region. The grouping was formalised by Japan in the year 2007. But Australia withdrew from the grouping in 2008, fearing Chinese backlash and thus the Quad was in suspended animation for almost a decade. The grouping was revived in the later part of 2017 with key role played by PM Modi and supported the US to counter growing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Quad, as of now, is a non-military alliance, and the Quad nations primarily focus on the stability and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region. PM Modi reiterated that the Quad is not against anyone but for a rules-based international order, which was a veiled reference to a belligerent China. In the last seven years, the Quad has made significant contributions towards health security, climate change, cyber security, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and emerging technology fields. The grouping supports the rule of the people through democracy, as reflected in the countries that make the Quad. Though a number of alliances, groupings and pacts are operational in the world, the voice of Quad carries huge weight in the global affairs, with its unique charter. China has all along been opposed to the Quad and considers it a hindrance to expansionism in the Indo-Pacific.
The Indo-Pacific region covers the Indian Ocean and the western and central Pacific Ocean. The indo-Pacific region is world’s fastest growing area and obviously has the maximum interest of USA and China. The region is home to about 55 per cent of the world’s population and accounts for 60 per cent of the global GDP. Economically, it is the fastest-growing region, which accounts for two-thirds of global economic growth. India, China, Australia, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, New Zealand, Maldives, and Bangladesh are some of the key Indo-Pacific nations.
India has been a late starter in the affairs of Indo-Pacific but has picked up pace after revival of the Quad in 2017 under the Modi 1.0 Government.
As the lone superpower, the US has dominated the affairs of the Indo-Pacific region for a long time. The US has huge military presence in the region in terms of military bases, deployment of aircraft carrier ships and bilateral/regional security groupings. The US hegemony has now been challenged by China, beginning with its belligerence in South China Sea. In the South China Sea, continuous friction with countries like the Philippines is happening, and the naval vessels have come close to formal attack. Economically, China dominates the ASEAN block and, through them, desires to dominate the Indo-Pacific. It is to counter Chinese domination in the region that the US is supporting India more actively now. India and the US have made significant progress in operationalising the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA), which is a Quad initiative. As expected, China has expressed its annoyance at this agreement.
It is also important to understand that the US is committed to defend Japan with full range of capabilities in case of war, including the nuclear dimension. There are more than 80 US military facilities in and around Japan. Notwithstanding the security pact with the US, Japan has gone ahead to meet the emerging threats from China and the nuclear threat from North Korea. It is also interesting to note that since 2017, the year Quad was revived, the Japanese defence expenditure has risen faster every year. In 2023, it was 26 per cent higher than 2022, indicating the priority provided to the country’s military called Japan Self Defence Forces. Japan is now spending almost 2 per cent of the GDP on defence, a whopping figure considering it mammoth economy, making Japan a major military power in Asia.
The case of Australia is not very different from that of Japan. The US has protected Australian security interests for the last more than 100 years. As a result, Australia maintains a comparatively smaller defence force. The security interests of Australia are protected by the US facilities in and around the Indo-Pacific. The two countries carry out lot of joint military training. In addition, Australia and the US engage in trilateral security dialogue with Japan. Thus, the US is intricately involved with the security of the two member nations of the Quad, i.e. Japan and Australia. After a bilateral meeting between PM Modi and President Joe Biden during the current visit, the Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership between India and US has brought the two largest democracies nearly the closest in delivering the interests of global good. It is axiomatic to assume that the Quad would gravitate to the next level of Security Dialogue and ultimately to a comprehensive security partnership, for the greater good of the Indo-Pacific region.
There has been growing military cooperation amongst the Quad nations. The annual Malabar Joint Naval Exercise between the US and India included Japan in 2015 and has now had Australia in attendance since 2020. In addition, Japan and Australia have solidified defence pacts to deal with emerging maritime threats, as well as by forging alliances with Pacific-rim nations. While there may be indications of thaw between India and China at the tactical level in Eastern Ladakh, the strategic competition between the Asian giants is going to continue. Therefore, it is in India’s strategic interest to push for a renewed and formal security partnership among the Quad nations.
In my opinion, there could be two ways of elevating the Quad to the next level. The first option is to go in for a formal security partnership or alliance between the four nations. It is easy to do but is likely to invite harsh reaction from China. The second option is to keep the Quad intact as a diplomatic grouping for non-military cooperation and forge a Quad plus, exclusively for the security alliance. Besides the four Quad nations, countries like South Korea, New Zealand and Vietnam are keen on joining the Quad plus arrangement. In addition, the UK, Germany and France also have strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. In order to take on the might of China, which is developing the most potent blue water navy, the combined maritime power of more nations would be necessary. After the maritime disputes of South China Sea, China is going to extend its influence to the Indo-Pacific in the next four to five years. Thus, the evolution of the Quad as the powerful voice in global affairs requires a strategic makeover. Also, Quad grouping needs a permanent secretariat to function more efficiently and effectively. India is ideally suited to house the secretariat.
In the evolving global geopolitics, the growing proximity between China and Russia has major strategic implications for the new world order. A much-prolonged Russia- Ukraine War has virtually brought a weakened Russia to the doors of China for economic and military considerations. The current trajectory of China-Russia relations is based on anti-US and anti-West stance. The protracted competition of China with the US-led world over has been the guiding spirit of the new equation between the two communist giants. In times to come, the world may become bipolar once again, with the US-led coalitions and the China-led unions that may include Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran, to name a few. India’s strategic calculus has to carefully navigate both in the immediate term, but in the long term, India would have to take on China economically and militarily.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that the Quad is here to stay, indicating faith in the democratic values that are significant for the entire human race. The dedication of a grant of USD 7.5 million by the Indian PM to cancer testing, screening and diagnostics in the Indo-Pacific region is one such example of stellar contribution to humanity. But India, as the emerging power on the global stage, particularly as the voice of the Global South, as also for its strategic interests, has to take the lead role in elevating the Quad to the next level of strategic partnership. The vision of a developed India @ Viksit Bharat by 2047 would also be contingent on our ability to shape and influence the affairs in the Indo-Pacific region through a more dynamic Quad arrangement.
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