Bangladesh is witnessing what may, in future times, be termed as the monsoon revolution. The army has taken control of the country, yet again, for the 30th time since independence. Sheikh Hasina, the tallest leader of the nascent nation, who has served as prime minister for nearly two decades, has been left stunned by the turn of events. Sitting in India and looking for a country to go to, she must be trying to figure out as to how and why the matters took such an ugly turn.
Numerous conspiracy theories are doing the rounds. The majority opinion is that this situation is the handiwork of the US that has been funding Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) in Bangladesh through a complex web of non-government organisations (NGOs). Notably, the JeI had been banned by the Sheikh Hasina government.
It is also being conjectured that Pakistan, through its notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and China were working in concert to orchestrate the end state that is existing now. An indicator of China’s willingness to engineer a regime change in Bangladesh is the disastrous visit to the country by Sheikh Hasina a few weeks earlier and her continued good relations with the Narendra Modi led government in India. There is credible evidence that China has been orchestrating student protests in Bangladesh over the last few years. It is alleged that a student protest was organised in Dhaka Press club on 13 April 2021 to pressure the government into sending more students to study in China.
Within Bangladesh, the plan has been supported, along with Jamaat, by people like Muhammad Yunus, a Bangladeshi civil society leader who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for pioneering the concept of microfinance. It is now being said that Younus has been a US deep state agent all through and the nobel prize was awarded because of this reason. He has now been declared the prime minister of the interim government in Bangladesh by the Army. This helps join the dots quite effectively.
Naturally, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the Khaleda Zia led main opposition party of the country, is also figuring prominently as a conspirator. The man behind the show from the party is Tariq Rahman who is closely associated with Muhammad Yunus. Interestingly, Khaleda Zia, who has been tried and sentenced to 17 years in jail (house arrest) has been freed within 24 hours of the collapse of the incumbent government.
Reservations in government jobs especially for the kin of Mukti Bahini (freedom fighters) is being quoted as the trigger for the mass agitation. This could be a smokescreen since Sheikh Hasina was herself against the reservations and had removed them in 2020. The recent verdict of the Supreme Court has upheld the reservations but reduced them drastically.
A more plausible trigger would be manipulation of the youth who are frustrated due to lack of employment opportunities along with activation of the radical Jamaat cadre. A heady cocktail brought together with money power, misinformation and propaganda.
The installation of a radical government in Bangladesh will be a win-win situation for all three countries that are said to be supporting the cause. For Pakistan is will mean weakening of the Indian security paradigm with the opening of yet another belligerent front over its longest border. It will also give more strength to the concept of the Islamic State of which Pakistan is a big proponent.
For China it would mean opening of more trade opportunities and sale of military hardware at the cost of India. China is also eyeing the fertile fields of Bangladesh to meet its burgeoning food security demands. As time passes, it will increase its aspirations towards Chittagong port and other projects that Bangladesh is undertaking with India.
The US had been pressuring Hasina to approve the establishment of a naval base at St. Martin Island, to keep an eye on both India and China, but she has declined. Now the US will look for its piece of cake in the form of this base and other matters concerning trade and security.
The hapless Bangladesh is on the cusp of becoming g a vassal state for a number of vicious and self-serving global powers who will fight with each other for its control. Here one is reminded of the adage – when elephants fight it is the grass that gets trampled, something similar is likely to happen to Bangladesh too. If anybody in Bangladesh holds a notion that the recent developments will strengthen the country, it is grossly misplaced.
The development is a matter of deep concern for India, especially so, since Sheikh Hasina maintained friendly ties with the Indian government despite, of course, hobnobbing with the Chinese and the Americans as well.
To deal with the situation, India has adopted a nuanced approach with a wait and watch policy. Undoubtedly, backdoor contacts with the army and other stakeholders would have been activated. Of prime importance is the stability of the 4000 kms plus border that the two countries share. A massive infiltration from across to create a 1971 like situation is something that India will need to remain wary of. As it is, West Bengal and some North-East states have registered massive increase in the influx by Bangladeshis, who are now going deep into the hinterland. There is no scope for any further escalation in this human migration.
There will also be a need to maintain cordial relations with the neighbour as hitherto fore and maintain sanctity of the various agreements for development and trade that are in place. On the trade front, Bangladesh is the fifth-largest importer of Indian goods ranging from food stuffs to electronic items, chemicals, pharmaceutical products, vehicles etc. Health and other services are also extended to the neighbouring country.
India will need to take strong diplomatic and affirmative steps to ensure that the nefarious designs of the foreign powers that are obviously working towards increasing their presence in the region are exposed and negated. India has the power and wherewithal to assist Bangladesh in meeting this challenge while also safeguarding its own security interests. This power has to be put to use effectively.
The Hindu community in Bangladesh constitutes eight percent of the population amounting to more than 13 million people. There are credible reports emerging of ruthless, depraved, radical mobs attacking the community members, looting their properties, molesting their women and destroying their temples and churches.
Due to its geographical location, India is the first responder to any such humanitarian upheaval in Bangladesh. As such, the country will need to respond in a timely, righteous and just manner that keeps the value of human life and property paramount. If this amounts to a strong physical intervention, then so be it.
The global community, too, needs to keep the humanitarian aspect isolated from the political developments. The effort should be to and ensure that yet another genocide does not take place in Bangladesh to the eternal shame of the global community. The thrust should be towards containing the situation rather than allowing it to get out of hand and then taking action.
Indian media that operates under the control of left liberals and other such powers is at great pains to suggest that students are maintaining vigil over the Hindu people and their assets to protect them from the mobs. This also could be a smoke screen and should not be taken by the Indian government at face value.
With huge socio-political upheavals on its eastern and western borders, India will need to stay extremely vigilant about the spill-over effect. Already many forces within the country are attempting to instigate vulnerable elements with the intention of engineering a similar upheaval within the country. The lesson that emerges here is that a majority in parliament matched with consistent growth does not foreclose the possibility of an upheaval that goes out of hand.
While staying vigilant about the activities of fundamentalists and extremists it is also important to stay tuned to their international support and source of funding etc. India needs to remain alive to the fact that experiments have been completed by holding the capital city, Delhi, hostage on a number of occasions. Now is their time for the big push which has to be negated at all cost. The need of the hour is pre-emptive action and not reaction once the deed is done.
