Choosing Russia as PM Modi’s first bilateral visit after being sworn in for a rare third consecutive term was a strategic move. PM Modi has broken the tradition of new Indian Prime Minister travelling first to the neighbouring country, which he followed in both his previous terms. This has been perceived as a change in Modi’s foreign policy priority. PM Modi is visiting Russian President Putin around the same time as leaders of 32 North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) gather in Washington DC (July 9-11) to celebrate 75 years of anti-Russia military alliance.
#WATCH | Moscow: PM Modi meets Russian President Vladimir Putin at President's house. He will have a private meeting and dinner with Russian President Vladimir Putin shortly pic.twitter.com/rdFqlHvn2U
— ANI (@ANI) July 8, 2024
Indo-Russian relationship is 7 decades old and veteran Indian policymakers carry a soft spot and goodwill for the erstwhile USSR, which has now transferred to Russia with taking into account the realities of the multi-polar world. However, it is observed that the bilateral relationship has stagnated in some areas. Defence sector by far remains the strongest, along with nuclear and space cooperation.
The defence cooperation which commenced as USSR becoming one of the main suppliers of defence equipment for India during the decades of the Cold War and even now 60-70 per cent equipments are from Russian or Soviet origin. The defence cooperation has now evolved from a buyer-seller framework to one involving joint R&D, co-development and joint production. Some of the remarkable achievements in this sector are the supply of S-400 surface-to-air missile, MiG fighter aircraft, Kamov helicopters, licensed production of T-90 tanks, Su-30MKI fighters, INS Vikramaditya, and BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles.
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India has tried to look beyond Russia in the last 25 years, especially towards the US, France and Israel for the diversification of the supply of defence equipments. However, India cannot afford to alienate Moscow, especially when India faces turbulent border issues with countries like China. It is necessary for India to make seamless and smooth supply of reliable equipments and spares to be prepared for the worst case scenarios.
India must regularly check the veracity of the claims of Russia when it states that it does not share any defence related technologies associated with any country, including Beijing, given how they have in recent times provided a grandeur display of their bonhomie.
Taking a closer look at the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and oil trade has further compelled the word to be divided. From the Indian perspective, India has been buying oil at a discount to cushion the inflation of rising crude prices. India faced international criticisms for this action. However, braving all the allegations India stood its ground by stating that it will continue to buy as it in the interest of the Indian consumer and Indian economy. The purchase of Russian crude has pushed bilateral trade volumes beyond expectations. Before the war, bilateral trade tiger was set at $30 billion by 2025. However, it reached to all time high of $65.7 billion in FY 2023-24. However, it has heavily in Russia’s favour.
Since the Ukraine-Russia war, India has been walking on a diplomatic tightrope as it has not explicitly condemned Russian activities. India has abstained from voting against Russia in several resolutions at the UNSC. India has been using euphemism to tell Russia that it has violated norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity which is an essential element in the international order. PM Modi had told Putin on the sidelines of SCO summit in 2022 that “this is not the era of war”.
There is a perception that India is portraying itself as a mediator between two sides of Moscow and Kyiv. Pm Modi is one of the few world leaders who have had telephonic conversations with both Putin and Zelenskyy. Ukrainian President invited PM Modi to visit during their meeting at the G7 in Italy. However, PM Modi stayed away from the peace summit on Ukraine hosted by Switzerland last month. Russia called the summit a “waste of time” and did not attend.
PM Modi’s visit to Russia commenced after a series of meetings between India and the West. Besides the G7 summit, PM also met with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan then visited New Delhi and this was followed by a visit by a US Congressional delegation to meet Dalai Lama in Dharamshala, and the top Indian leadership.
PM Modi’s visit is a part of the series of annual bilateral summits between the two countries that has been ongoing since 2000. With twenty one summits, it is highest institutionalised dialogue mechanism in the strategic partnership taken so far in India and Russia.
An irking element that has marred the relationship presently has been the presence of Indians in Russia who are believed to have been misled into doing the war in Ukraine. Four Indians have been killed and ten have been repatriated , but another 40 or so are still believed to be in Russia. New Delhi has asked for their discharge.
The core concern of India with respect to its relationship with Russia would be the Moscow-Beijing dynamics that is against Indian strategic interests. PM Modi’s visit seeks to strengthen the bilateral partnership and give a closure tot he loose ends. It is important for India to ensure that China does not become an irritant or a factor dictating Indo-Russia relations.
