New Delhi: A feverish campaign is on the cards in Karnataka wherein politicians of different parties will attack each other personally and also each other’s policies at the National level and even at the State level. There will be an aggressive quest for power, and the coming polls will be important in the run-up to the 2024 general elections.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP, which rules the key Southern State, it could be a popularity test of its policies and the ideology of building a strong Bharat – a New India – based on Hindutva principles and an inclusive stance towards governance. It will be critical poll in Karnataka as the people in this State have the reputation of making their own and pretty good assessment of industrial growth, jobs and incentives for farmers.
The Congress is desperate to make a comeback braving its own bickering as the party leaders argue that victory in Karnataka could boost party workers of India’s grand old political outfit, which has lost polls in various States across India and two parliamentary polls since 2014.
“It appears the Congress will be too keen to play up the victim card vis-a-vis Rahul Gandhi disqualification and also its pro-minority that has come to the fore following state cabinet decision to do away with Muslim OBC reservation,” says an important BJP leader involved in framing poll strategies.
The Karnataka Congress is already afflicted with a triangular fight between State unit president D K Shivakumar, AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge, legislative party president and former CM Siddaramaiah.
As happens with all elections, the Congress’s old war horses are fighting to ensure tickets for their respective followers and admirers.
There is a third player in Karnataka besides the BJP and the Congress – the JD(S) of Vokkalika leaders H D Deve Gowda (former PM) and H D Kumaraswamy (former CM). The JD(S) is again hoping to emerge as a key player in the corridors of power, especially in the event the polls throw up a fractured mandate. The BJP leadership is well aware of this challenge.
Thus, it was not without good reason, the Prime Minister himself said at a recent rally at Devangere. “Does Karnataka not need a strong Government with a full majority?”
In 2018, the saffron party emerged as the single largest party but could not have a majority of its own. In terms of electoral strategy, the BJP is geared up for the challenge and will be trying to improve its performance, especially in Southern Karnataka.
Karnataka has six regions – Bengaluru, Central, Coastal, Hyderabad-Karnataka, Mumbai-Karnataka and Southern Karnataka, making the 224-member Assembly.
Southern Karnataka has 51 assembly seats, and here the lotus party will be keen to improve its performance.
In 2018 polls, the BJP penetration fell short though in parliamentary polls immediately next year in 2019, the party could do well in 23 assembly segments.
The saffron party has established strong toeholds in practically all other five regions of the State, but in Southern Karnataka, the challenge remains. In 2008 polls, the BJP polled 22 percent votes in Southern Karnataka and in 2018, while the vote share was around 17 per cent, the party would win only nine seats out of 51.
In the 2013 assembly polls, the BJP vote share was much less at two per cent only. “We need to hold on to Lok Sabha polls vote share in 2019 and try to improve a bit,” says the BJP source.
Vokkaligas account for at least 15 per cent of Karnataka’s population and are seen as the second-most influential section of voters.
In terms of strategy, yet again, the BJP will have to fight the JD(S) in Southern Karnataka. In terms of population, this is a hub of Vokkaligas, and in 2018 polls, the JD(S) vote share was 38 per cent, whereas the overall acceptability of JD(S) across Karnataka was a modest 18 per cent.
As of now, several permutations and combinations are on. BJP poll strategists believe once Prime Minister Narendra Modi starts campaigning in these areas, things will change decisively.
“The youth voters are overwhelmingly with the BJP. The common people and women would easily back any BJP candidate in the name of ‘Narendra Modi Zindabad’,” says a party worker J Dilip from Tumkur, a key political hub in Southern Karnataka.
The Prime Minister recently inaugurated the Bengaluru-Mysuru highway, and this will bring in much-needed transformation in the region.
The BJP is aware of caste equations. Sometime back, party general secretary Arun Singh in charge of Karnataka, had said, “We have seven Vokkaliga ministers in the Karnataka government. The community has also been represented at the Centre. There is space for all communities in the BJP. We believe in Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas”.
The political analysts say both the BJP and its rivals are keeping an eye on Karnataka polls as the fallout of the Karnataka poll outcome could be in neighbouring Telangana. Many Congress leaders are reportedly awaiting BJP’s performance in Karnataka, and subsequently, they will decide their strategies to jump the ship.
In the 2019 parliamentary polls, the BJP could successfully pick up four seats out of 17 in Telangana.
Importantly, the BJP vote share in Telangana was 19.45 per cent as against 29.48 per cent by Congress and 41.29 per cent by B Chandrasekhar Rao’s TRS – which is now renamed as Bharatiya Telangana Samithi.
