Russia-Ukraine War: Taking stock of One Year of World-shaking war

On February 24, 2022, the Russian military carried out a four-pronged attack on Ukraine, setting in motion a string of geopolitical events which reverberated across the globe. Today, as a consequence of the Russian invasion, new alliances are being formed, Russia has been placed under sanctions, Europe and Japan are militarising, China has moved closer to Russia and India is poised delicately, having to balance its relations with Russia, which has been a long-term friend and ally as also with the United States and the West, with which India is seeking closer collaboration in the defence and economic spheres, especially with respect to cooperation in the field of upper-end technology.

The four-front Russian invasion of February 24, 2022, was marked by a ground attack with mechanised forces from the North of Belarus towards Kyiv, another assault from the Northeast towards Kharkiv, a Southeastern thrust towards the Donbas region onto Donetsk and Luhansk and a Southern thrust from the South, from Crimea. All the attacks were supported by air power. The objective was not simply to capture territory but to execute a regime change in Kyiv and install a government which would be friendly to Russia.

Most Russians regard Ukraine as a country with which they are strongly interwoven, with many Russians expressing the view that Ukraine is ‘an inalienable part of Russia itself.’ President Vladimir Putin told Ukraine, ‘We are one people.’ Post the Euromaidan protests of 2014, which Moscow believed were triggered by the Western powers inimical to Russia and led to the overthrow of the Yanukovich regime, Russia captured Crimea in a swift retaliatory operation after a referendum, merged Crimea with the Russian Federation. From the Russian perspective, the regime change carried out via the Euromaidan protests implied nothing less than ‘an existential threat’ to Russia, which explains why the Russians moved swiftly to capture Crimea. It is essential to mention that Crimea, which till the 1950s was a part of Russia, was ceded to Ukraine when the entire region was under the USSR. For the most part, it has a Russian-speaking population, but its importance to Russia also lies in the fact that the Naval base at Sevastopol hosts the Russian Black Sea Fleet. This area had been leased to Russia by Ukraine.

The Donbas region, on Ukraine’s Southeastern border with Russia, which too has a large Russian-speaking population, also declared independence from Ukraine and sought help from Moscow soon after Russia annexed Crimea. The fighting that ensued in Donbas led to the Minsk Accords on September 5, 2014, but it was violated soon thereafter, and fighting resumed. A new ceasefire, Minsk II was negotiated on February 12, 2015, but the Accord remained unimplemented for the most part, and the conflict remained stalemated and unresolved. Russian fears intensified over the years due to measures being taken by Ukraine to officially join NATO. That was a red line for Moscow and was the causative factor for Russia to carry out a military campaign against Ukraine, primarily to install a friendly regime in Kyiv. The Ukraine war, which began on February 24, 2022, continues till date.

The war has, however, shown the Russian military, as well as its military leadership, in poor light. The operations conducted by the Russian military in February and March 2022 made little headway. More importantly, the political objective of executing a regime change not only failed but resulted in uniting the Ukrainian nation against Russia. However, after one year of conflict, Russia has captured most of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts of the Donbas region and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. These were important operational objectives which has given the Russians a land link to Crimea, besides providing greater control over the Black Sea and providing depth to Crimea from an invasion from the North. President Volodymyr Zelenskky of Ukraine is, however, doggedly holding on and continues to fight, mainly with liberal supplies of arms and ammunition from the US and the West. However, large parts of Ukraine have been destroyed by the war, leading to 10-15 million Ukrainian refugees seeking shelter elsewhere.

WHO WILL BLINK FIRST?

The war appears to be stalemated as of now, but the picture could change from March this year, when the winter recedes. Ukraine has the wherewithal to fight for a prolonged period as they are fighting for their country, and as such, their motivation levels are high. However, Europe is fast getting tired of the war, and their commitment to keep supporting Ukraine is increasingly under strain. The destruction of over 1200 km long Nord Stream natural gas pipeline has added to European woes as they are facing critical energy shortages and shifting to energy sources from other suppliers is adding to the costs. The US, however, is not directly impacted by the war and will continue to support the Ukraine war effort. This suits their long-term strategic interests as a prolonged war will weaken Russia and energise the military-industrial complex of the US. The recent unannounced visit of US President Joe Biden to Kyiv on February 20 2023, is a pointer in this direction, wherein Biden stated that the US would back Ukraine in its fight against Russia for “as long as it takes”.

The Russians have the wherewithal and the will to fight a prolonged war, but the number of casualties they are suffering may soon turn public opinion against the war—a prospect that would not be to the liking of Russian President Putin. They will still aim at regime change to end the war, but the prospects of the war coming to a close are dim, largely because neither side is prepared to back down. A ceasefire along the existing front line would not be acceptable to Ukraine who would insist on a restoration of the status quo as it existed on February 24, 2022. Russia may accept a ceasefire on the existing frontline, but they will not accept a ceasefire which demands a return of the captured territories to Ukraine. That is an untenable proposition, as it would mean giving back hard-fought gains where the Russians have sacrificed thousands of lives. The war could, however end if one side faces a military defeat, with the victor forcing terms on the vanquished. This appears unlikely as of now.

NEW WORLD ORDER

Predicting the future is always hazardous, and so is the Ukraine War. I would assess that sanctions have had a limited impact on Russia, but Europe has been a major sufferer of the impact of sanctions. High energy prices have worsened most economies, leading to severe shortages in many countries in the West. They are looking for an early end to the war. One impact of the war on Europe is that NATO has been energised. Japan and the European Union will now be spending more on defence. This prospect pleases the US as it keeps the EU outside Russian influence, especially after the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which many analysts believe has been the handiwork of the US.

The US is not directly impacted by the war and will continue to support the Ukraine war. This suits their long-term strategic interests as a prolonged war will weaken Russia and energise the military-industrial complex of the US. The recent unannounced visit of US President Joe Biden to Kyiv is a pointer in this direction

This summer, Russia may continue with a limited offensive and attempt to capture Odessa. That would effectively cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and make it a land-locked country. From a position of strength, Russia could then declare a unilateral ceasefire. Alternatively, it may attempt to take the entire area east of the Dnieper River, making the river the new boundary line with Ukraine. This will, however, be hard to sustain.

Internationally, new power alignments are taking place, which is reflective of a return to the Cold War period. On the one side, we have an axis appearing encompassing China, Russia and Iran. On the other, we have an alignment of the US, Western Europe and Japan. India will pursue its national interests, which at times may be in sync with one side or the other, but will be driven by national interest.

“When President Putin ordered his tanks to roll into Ukraine he thought we would roll over. He was wrong. He thought NATO would fracture and divide. Instead NATO is more united, more unified than ever before. One year into this war, Putin no longer doubts the strength of our coalition, but he still doubts our conviction. He doubts our staying power. But there should be no doubt, our support for Ukraine will not waiver. NATO will not be divided and we will not tire” – US President Joe Biden in Warsaw, Poland,
February 21, 2023

INDIA’S INTERESTS

India’s interests in the Indo-Pacific align closely with the US and hence it remains an important part of the Quad grouping. However, India has a different set of interests in the Eurasian heartland, which spells divergence from US views. There is no dichotomy in pursuing different interests on the continental shelf and in the maritime domain, as in both cases India’s policies are aligned to suit India’s national interest. Navigating the same in the coming years will require a great deal of dexterity.

The geopolitical outlines of tomorrow’s world remain undefined for now, but will become clearer in the years ahead. For the moment, the war has notably catalysed European integration and has pushed Russia closer to the Chinese embrace. But India will not be drawn into the power play of any one group and will continue to pursue its national interest. This reflects the emergence of a new, vibrant and confident India, which is ready to stand by itself, on regional and international issues. On Ukraine, India will push for peace, without getting entangled with any side. That perhaps is the best option to bring about peace between the parties to the conflict.