The Geostrategic Masterstroke of Amendment of Article 370

J&K forms the head of Indian sub-continent, and has been the traditional trade route of Central and South Asia to the East and Tibet, generally called the ‘Silk Route’. It is bounded by more countries than any other state of India; in the North East with Tibet, and further North with Xinjiang province of China, in the North West with the Wakhan corridor of Afghanistan, in the West with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and further South with Punjab of Pakistan. This geographic layout is strategically so important that no power of the world want to remain away from the area, as it gives them access to the sensitive areas of the neighbouring countries.

 

Amendment of Article 370 and Abrogation of 35A in J&K ushered historical moment, and it dismantled a hegemonic order controlled by separatist forces having patronage and unconditional support from all across the borders. Jammu and Kashmir were never governed on a principle of participation and equality. Patriotic segments of the population of Jammu & Kashmir belonging to all communities had always been discriminated and marginalised. Article 370 and Article 35A were not just provisions of Indian Constitution dealing with the internal governance of erstwhile State of J&K but having a lot of strategic implications due to the strategic importance of J&K. This is the reason abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A caused more pains to Pakistan and China. They tried to raise this issue at every international forum but faced humiliation only.

 

The close proximities between Pakistan and China due to their economic and strategic ties generated their increased interest in erstwhile J&K, particularly Gilgit-Baltistan and POJK. Due to Article 370 and Article 35A, the Indian Government had very less control over ground situations in J&K due to empowerment of separatist forces by these provisions having allegiance to Pakistani and Chinese agencies funding them. It’s a blow to both Pakistan and China in many ways.

The Xinjiang and Tibetan plateaus both adjoining Ladakh constitute a wedge into the Himalayas and considered by China to be very strategic. China wants to grab those areas that allowed them to establish roads between Xinjiang and Tibet. With the undetermined border between Soviet Turkestan and Xinjiang, a source of friction and tension with Russia, China needed an active line of communication with Xinjiang through Aksai Chin.

 

China faced a double blow due to these developments. They are making of Ladakh bordering China as UT and coming directly under Central Government have whitewashed any future planned endeavours of China in this region. This region has very strategic importance due to Siachen and CPEC passing very close to this region. Recent India-China standoff is a result of this growing frustration of China due to these developments and due to rising anti-China world public opinion amid Chinese Corona virus crisis. Galwan Valley is just 70 km away from an area where CPEC is passing. India’s strong posturing relating to Gilgit-Baltistan and increased resentment of locals against Pakistan and China in that area has multiplied worries of China.

 

 

China is spending huge sums on building infrastructure through highways connecting Tibet to Xinjiang through the Chinese-occupied Aksai Chin plateau, and Xinjiang to Pakistan via the Karakorum highway through the Kunzreb pass. This highway then connects Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea, giving a warm water port and access to the Indian Ocean to China. Its importance can be visualised in that China trade can avoid the bottleneck of the Malacca straits as also cuts down turnaround to the interior provinces of China.

 

China initially tried its best to persuade India to be part of the BRI initiative. Still, India flatly refused to be part of it due to Sovereignty concerns in POJK and Gilgit Baltistan. Increased activities of Baloch groups in Balochistan have put China’s massive investments and dream entry to warm water port of Gwadar and finally into the Indian Ocean in the doldrums.

 

Pakistan is also facing the same geostrategic fallout like China after the amendment of Article 370. Pakistan’s position has turned more miserable in many ways. It lost its separatist base operating freely in Kashmir Valley with legal, constitutional protections due to abrogation of these provisions. Activities of foreign terrorists have declined to a minimum level due to negligible infiltration. Local recruitment and life of domestic terrorists have declined to an all-time low. The local emotional sentiment is also turning against separatist forces in Kashmir. Local people were first to celebrate the detention of separatists and mainstream Kashmiri politicians after 5th August developments due to their anti-masses attitude all these years. These are disturbing developments for Pakistan. After the amendment of Article, 370 and abrogation of 35A movement of locals in POJK against Pakistan has intensified. People in POJK are up in arms against the discriminatory, oppressive and racial attitude of Pak authorities. After seeing the democratic rights being enjoyed by people in J&K and Ladakh, they have become more vociferous. In frustration, Pakistan tried to declare POJK and Gilgit Baltistan as part of Pakistan, but this move was contested by the local population by tooth and nail. Due to anti-Pak sentiments in POJK and Gilgit Baltistan, the progress of CPEC has also turned into doldrums causing problems of dreamed economic growth of Pakistan as envisaged by its ruling class. The recent agreement between China and Iran for development of rail network in Iran has indicated China’s worries for CPEC and quest for its alternatives. That has added more to Pakistan’s worries.