Even as the 11-hour marathon De-escalation talks between India and China are under way, the Chinese are sticking to their guns. A determined India issued a stern warning to China to move back across the LAC to status quo ante.
On 5th July, Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane informed Defence Minister Rajnath Singh of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) moving its troops from the Y-junction of Galwan Valley to its base camp in the rear.
Meanwhile, in a straight conversation with Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister), National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval stressed the need to restore India’s right to patrol rights on these four points to bring peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh. Thus, coming out of the deadlock that lasted more than two weeks, the de-escalation process has been initiated, and satellite images clearly show China pulled back its troops from Patrol Point 14 and the PLA dismantled some structures on Finger 4.
After Doklam in 2017, this is the second time China has taken its boots back from the LAC and is back to its April positions; it is necessary to keep a close eye on China’s methods to grab India’s land.
China post-Galwan Episode
PLA is being criticised worldwide for its cowardly attack on Indian troops along LAC. The Galwan Valley episode exposes the chinks in its armour against India but it was more of an attempt to read the mind of New Delhi. Beijing hoped to capitulate New Delhi, as it has done with some ASEAN nations in the South China Sea, but its plan backfired on them. Braves of the Indian Army not only frustrated PLA’s effort to grab an inch of the land but also gave a message that this is not the 1962 India but a 2020 India.
Beijing hoped to capitulate New Delhi, as it has done with some ASEAN nations in the South China Sea, but its plan backfired on them. Braves of the Indian Army not only frustrated PLA’s effort to grab an inch of the land but also gave a message that this is not the 1962 India but a 2020 India.
Meanwhile, that China has claimed a large chunk of eastern Bhutan could be a message to India. Though China claims in areas of northern and western Bhutan since the 1950s, the claim on the eastern region on Bhutan had never been pitched directly before. This claim can be linked to Beijing’s demand that India return the Tawang monastery and its surrounding area to China. Tawang, as China considers, is an ‘inseparable’ part of the Tibet region. At the time of stand-off with India in Eastern Ladakh, Beijing made an official declaration regarding Bhutan that ‘the boundary between China and Bhutan has never been delimited.
There have been disputes over eastern, central, and western sectors for a long time.’ This strange statement has changed the goalposts. China did the same with Vietnam regarding the Paracel and Spratly Islands, Japan, in connection with the Senkaku islands and Russia concerning Vladivostok city. After the Galwan Valley China can disturb India in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as well.
China in IOR
Decades old border dispute in the northern region has been a source of tension and will remain so, but growing rifts between India and China mean the Indian Ocean will likely grow as an area of conflict as well. China’s increasing naval activities along India’s southern maritime border in the Indian Ocean (IO), may increase tension in the near future, needs more attention of New Delhi. Since China is the second biggest economy and the world’s largest trading nation, the sea lanes of communication in IO are vital to its economy and security. Until now, China has never been a naval power; it was always a land power.
Since China is the second biggest economy and the world’s largest trading nation, the sea lanes of communication in IO are vital to its economy and security.
Hu Jintao initiated to make the Chinese navy more effective by saying the Strait of Malacca as the Malacca dilemma and very soon China emerged as a maritime power and seeking strategic advantages through the construction of ports and naval outreach in the IOR. China knew that it is not a littoral state, therefore acknowledging the US dominance and India’s regional influence in IO, built seaports. Initially, China, unnerving the US and India’s interstates, slowly penetrated in IOR and emerged as a maritime power.
Though China’s growing influence in Sri Lank has brought a tectonic shift in India’s maritime security concerns in IOR, due to China’s presence, this sea lane didn’t remain merely a business lane but became a strategic lane that may pose serious challenges to India’s security and prosperity. Thus IOR is now no more a harmonious ocean.
India’s Options
China assumes every regional challenge as a US-led plot to curtail its rise, and this tendency brings those nations close to the US who challenges China’s dominance. During Doklam stand-off, India acquired the P-18 maritime surveillance aircraft from the US, which flew right up to Sino-India border to the reconnaissance that time. Since then the P-18 is continuously working in IO to keep an eye on Chinese warships. To this India has signed a 20-year pact with Seychelles, an Indian Ocean country, to build naval infrastructure there. Later, in 2018, India and the US have signed an agreement for closer coordination of military operations such as tracking submarines. India has also initiated a talk with Japan on mutual military logistic supports deal; on such deal, India already agreed with the US and Australia.
In the recent India-China stand-off, the US, Russia, and France came directly in support of India and offered logistic supports to India.
In the recent India-China stand-off, the US, Russia, and France came directly in support of India and offered logistic supports to India in and bad times. The Indian government has approved the proposals to upgrade 59 of its MiG-29 aircraft and buy 21 more from Russia for about $1 billion and ordered 12 Russian-made Su-30MKI fighters from the local state-owned company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited for $1.53 billion. The government also approved the emergency purchase of Excalibur artillery rounds for M777 ultra-light howitzers from the United States, Igla-S air defence systems from Russia and Spike anti-tank guided missiles from Israel.
Lucian W Pye writes, ‘China is a civilisation pretending to be a nation’, and a civilisational-state, distinctly conservative, rejects universal human rights, international laws and treaties and doesn’t believe in the balance of power. In a visit to France in 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, ‘The lion China has already awakened, but this is a peaceful, pleasant and civilised lion’, but the awakened lion is not peaceful and civilised at all. Apart from military logistic up-gradation, India shall have to opt for some diplomatic and strategic options. Like NATO, a military organisation of Southeast, Asia Pacific, Central and South Asian countries, could be an option, for what India may consider
(The writer teaches Peace and Conflict Studies at Mahatma Gandhi Central University, Motihari, Bihar)
