Vested political interests hitherto had not resolved the continuing illegal migrant crisis in Assam. However, the Apex Court’s timely intervention regarding the National Register of Citizens is a welcome move
Pranjit Agarwala
For four decades in the interests of vote-bank politics both the State and Central governments have indulged in political brinkmanship on the vital issue of illegal influx from Bangladesh. However, in 2009, the Supreme Court (SC) taking cognisance of the matter ordered the revision of the National Register of Citizens (NRC), 1951 in Assam under its direct supervision.
The objective is to prepare a register of genuine Indian citizens residing in Assam so that all illegal foreigners can be detected and their names deleted from the electoral rolls of Assam.
Despite the SC’s intervention, vested political interest attempts to subvert and delay the NRC to safeguard their respective vote-banks. It is evident from the misleading statements after the release of the first partial part of the draft NRC. Doubts have been expressed about the veracity of the verification process mainly because of some anomalies in the inclusion of names. There is also mischievous propaganda alleging that the migrants’ issue is only a political ploy to mobilise the regional votes, indirectly implying that the NRC revision is an exercise in futility. Or specifically there are no illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam.
Old Controversy
In 1984, responding to a writ petition in the SC challenging the validity of the 1979 electoral rolls and the 1983 Assembly elections in Assam, the Election Commission of India (ECI) undertook an intensive revision of the electoral rolls based on the 1971 voters’ list.
During the revision, out of 1.5 crore voters, names of 35 lakh voters could not be traced directly or by parentage to the 1971 electoral rolls. Although after disposing of claims and objections the figure came down to about 10 lakh, it confirmed the suspicion that some constituencies were swamped by migrants. The signing of the Assam Accord in 1985 failed to arrest the flow.
Electoral data and population census figures indicate an abnormal increase in the number of voters and population in Assam since 1971, particularly post-1981. Significantly, the increase in the number of voters and population has been more pronounced in the districts bordering Bangladesh. But population experts and analysts do not consider this as indicative of cross-border influx. However, the rapid change in Assam’s demographic profile tells a different story.
Demographic Incertitude
After 1971 the religious and linguistic profile of Assam underwent a marked change. The Muslim population grew steadily from 24 per cent in 1971 to 31 per cent in 1991 and to 34.7 per cent by 2011. Numbers-wise from 1951-1971 the Muslim population grew by 16 lakh or 80,000 per year. And during 1971-1991 it grew by 27.81 lakh or 1,39,000 per year. The trend continued during 1991-2001 with an increase of 18.67 lakh or 1,87,000 per year. Similarly in the last decade, 2001-2011 the Muslim population grew by 26 lakh or 2,60,000 per year. This is the highest rate of increase in India.
Higher fertility rates are cited as the main reason for the steadily increasing numbers. But since 1991 the highest decline in fertility rates among religious groups in India occurred among the Muslims.
The 1996 Bangladesh Population Census Report found eight million (80 Lakh) persons missing or unaccounted for in the country. In 2013, the United Nations Department of Economic & Social Affairs reported that 3.2 million (32 lakh) Bangladeshis have entered and settled in India.
However, it must be noted that Bhartiya Janta Party(BJP) added a crucial distinction of categories in North-east as a whole. The party argued that there has to be a distinction between illegal migrants and Hindu refugees. This development which consolidated with BJP’s political will and translated into its electoral victory has a long history.
It has been informed to us in The Last Battle of Saraighat (Penguin Random House, 2017) that in the wake of Assam movement, the RSS played the crucial role in transforming the anti-bahiragat agitation to anti-videshi movements. Bahiragat referred to those who came to Assam from outside. The category was turned to the challenges posed by foreigners and the crucial difference between Hindus and Muslims was accentuated. Authors of the book state that after a series of meetings, in 1980, Sangh stated that ‘Hindus were sharanarthis (asylum seekers) and Muslims were anupraveshkaaris (infiltrators) in Assam.’ (p.71)
This long struggle of seeing migrants differently has been now embedded strongly in the discourse of illegal migration in North-east. The political will of BJP and public mobilisation has garnered a well placed debate on the issue as well.
The emphasis on the people of the region and not on those who have illegally entered in the region to sabotage the rights and opportunities of the indigenous folks has been taking shape after the arrival of BJP at helm in the North-east. Earlier Congress governments had strategically compromised with the interests of the indigenous people through many ways, including legislations
Surge in the Illegal Migrants
The promulgation of the Illegal Migrants Determination by Tribunal Act (IMDT) 1983 encouraged influx. Unlike the Foreigners Act, 1946 prevailing in the rest of India where the onus of proof was on the accused, the IMDT Act applicable only in Assam put the onus of proof on the complainant. This made detection difficult because the immigrants were well armed with forged documents to support their citizenship claims.
The NRC revision has received overwhelming public support. Some 68.27 lakh families have submitted 3.29 crore applications along with 6.6 crore documents for inclusion in the NRC. It is a mammoth task complicated by the existence of a large number of forged documents. But the digitisation of legacy data has now made it possible to correctly trace a claimant’s ancestry making detection more foolproof. So far 48 lakh mismatches have been detected. However, there is no need to panic as the thorough scrutiny of all documents is the key to preparing a correct NRC.
The SC’s latest directive to publish the final NRC by June 30, 2018 has therefore been welcomed by all conscious citizens irrespective of their linguistic, socio-religious or ethnic affiliations because it can end the decades old controversy. Interestingly in 1951 when the NRC was first prepared, there were 80 lakh Indian citizens in the whole of undivided Assam.
(The Writer is a Guwahati based political commentator)
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